Antarctic air is warming faster than rest of world

[donsu]

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2111772,00.html

New finding could have implications for sea level rises
AIR temperatures above the entire frozen continent of Antarctica have risen three times faster than the rest of the world during the past 30 years.

While it is well established that temperatures are increasing rapidly in the Antarctic Peninsula, the land tongue that protrudes towards South America, the trend has been harder to confirm over the continent as a whole.

Now analysis of weather balloon data by scientists at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) has shown that not only are the lower reaches of the Antarctic atmosphere warming, but that they are doing so at the fastest rate observed anywhere on Earth.

-snip-

This signature of climate change is three times stronger than the average observed around the world, suggesting that global warming is having an uneven impact and that it could be greater for Antarctica.
-snip-
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tick, tick, tick

a first step in slowing down global warming would be: world wide - no car driving on Weds. not trucks, cops, emergency, etc. just cars. you got a better big first step?
------------------

this makes me think of one of Anne Rice's novels. forget which one. outside of N.O. a big old mansion was sinking into the marsh and the last of the family is living on the second floor and ties his skiff up the the upstairs porch railings.

[onehandle]

1. This week I started hearing to sounds of summer insects.

Here in Atlanta. This is the beginning of spring. Not Summer.

Earth is so f*cked.

[leftchick]

2. Satellite Photo of Collapse of the Larsen B ice Shelf

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/News_and_Information/Press_Releases/2002/20020319.html



Satellite images have revealed the collapse of Larsen B ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula fulfilling predictions made by British Antarctic Survey (BAS) scientists. The collapse of the 3250 km² ice shelf is the latest drama in a region of Antarctica that has experienced unprecedented warming over the last 50 years.

Earlier this month Ted Scambos of the University of Colorado alerted BAS glaciologists David Vaughan and Chris Doake to images from the NASA MODIS satellite. Meanwhile, in Antarctica Argentinian glaciologist Pedro Skvarca, realised something was happening to the ice shelf and mobilised an aircraft to obtain aerial images confirming the satellite data. While the collapse was still occurring the BAS research ship RRS James Clark Ross navigated her way through the armada of icebergs to obtain photographs and samples.

Over the last month the 200-m thick ice shelf collapsed into small icebergs and fragments. Pooling these new observations scientists will determine when such an event last happened and which ice shelves are threatened in future.

BAS glaciologist Dr David Vaughan said,
"In 1998, BAS predicted the demise of more ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula. Since then warming on the peninsula has continued and we watched as piece-by-piece Larsen B has retreated. We knew what was left would collapse eventually, but the speed of it is staggering. Hard to believe that 500 billion tonnes of ice sheet has disintegrated in less than a month."

[mike_c]

3. this result is by no means clear or even generally accepted yet....

For example, it's my understanding that it is not supported by satellite data, which sees no such "hot spot" over the antarctic, and it is largely a meta-analysis of hand transcribed Russian data from the last 30 years. Nor have surface temperatures grown warmer there-- if anything, I believe the surface data suggests the antarctic might be cooling a little in recent years. Finally, if this result turns out to be true, it must depend upon upper atmosphere circulation patterns that are currently not incorporated in general circulation models, which begs the question of either whether the hot spot has any significance, or why the models seem to work reasonably well without it. On the other hand, other climate data DO suggest that warming is occuring faster than the models predict. But at any rate, the jury is still out regarding the antarctic hot spot.

[donsu]

6. you don't believe the scientists?

nt

[mike_c]

18. dude, I AM a scientist and I' ve read this report and heard some...

...of the discussion about it in the scientific community. I'm an ecologist and I take global climate change quite seriously-- that's why I thought it might be valuable to clarify some of the issues surrounding this particular report.

[Joe Fields]

7. I am not a scientist, and I don't play one on t.v........

And you may argue against certain scientific observations or findings, but you cannot argue against this chilling occurrance, and the severe impact it will have on the world.

The ice sheet in Greenland and the polar ice cap are melting at a rate that scientists may find hard to get a handle on. But no one can argue that they are melting at an alarming rate. I wish to God someone in our government would take these matters seriously.

[mike_c]

20. see # 18....

eom

on edit-- the ARCTIC ice is another matter entirely-- the northern pole is responding somewhat differently than the southern pole, at least partly because of the dramatic change in planetary albedo as the ice is replaced by dark water.

[Blue_In_AK]

23. Mike C, as a scientist,

what do you think of the idea that the increased glacial melt in the North Atlantic will ultimately (and rather soon) lead to a mini ice age because of the slowing of the oceanic "conveyor belt." I saw something about this on National Geographic or Science Channel last week. It was a pretty scary theory and made a lot of sense to me the way it was presented. In other words, global warming in the short term would lead to several global chilling.

[mike_c]

24. that's one of the possibilities predicted by global circulation models...

...and it has happened in the past. There is little doubt that dumping a bunch of freshwater into the pole oceans-- especially the northern pole-- is going to have a big effect on oceanic heat distribution. My personal feeling-- based on what I've read and been told, because I'm not a climatologist or planetary scientist-- is that the conveyor disruption is quite likely, but I can't comment on the likelihood other than through the words of folks who know more about the models themselves than I do. They seem to think the likelihood is high, depending on the rate of freshwater introduction at the arctic pole.

[Blue_In_AK]

25. The scenario certainly seemed plausible to me

given the explanations of the scientists. I wonder why this effect of global warming hasn't been publicized to the degree that some of the other byproducts have been - rising sea levels, hurricanes, etc. The way it was explained, the chilling effects on particularly the northeast US and Europe would be devastating resulting in massive loss of life from starvation and exposure.

[benburch]

4. Antarctica will be ice free in 100 years.

I don't think even the scientists involved realize how effective the positive feedback mechanism we have created will be.

This will also open Antarctica to coal and oil exploitation, hastening the end.

[donsu]

10. ice free way sooner then 100 yrs.

when both poles are melting faster each yr.

[im10ashus]

5. Great article!

Thanks for posting. I try to do my part. I have the luxury of taking public transportation, which I know isn't feasible everywhere, and so I utilize that luxury to its fullest.

K&R!

[Minnesota Libra]

8. As everyone focuses on the political issues of the day people seem......

....to forget that we are pushing our planet to the very ends of its endurance at ever increasing rates. The four seasons are quickly becoming two - spring and summer - and soon that will be summer and hellish summer. People don't seem to notice that the very planet we take for granted is beginning to fight back against all the abuse we've done to it.

Instead of banning absolutely all driving just on Weds why not allow emergency vehicles to drive - because they are necessary - but ban all other driving on Tues, Weds, and Thurs? The ban should also carry a HUGE FINE and even jail time as enforcement.

[donsu]

9. that would be a too big of a first step for all the countries of the world

to sign on to

starting with just one day will give people time to adjust their lives to the change.

[Minnesota Libra]

11. True enough - one day a week would at least be a start nt

[dipsydoodle]

12. Complete cessation

of all air travel probably wouldn't even dent the changes which are already occuring. Emmision from aircraft is far more significant than cars which may be able to run on alternative power.

[donsu]

13. what do you suggest as a first big step in slowing global warming?

should we just continue on as usual and do nothing? does one do nothing when the car is heading straight for a brick wall. not even apply brakes?

[dipsydoodle]

16. First step

would be the most unpopular. Increase the price of fuel for any form of transport to a level by which the price itself would act as a rationing mechanism. But make a singular exception for the transportation of all food goods. Then - just get used to living a totally different life than it was before. Gonna come that sooner or later anyway so might as well face up to it now.

[mike_c]

21. agreed, 100 percent....

There is no sustainable way to continue "the western way of life" with this many people on the planet.

[dipsydoodle]

22. Agree entirely

If the Amish and Mennonites can manage so should we be able to do so. By a curious coincidence I bought me an Amish hat on ebay last night when I was bored. Just need to find me a stick-on black beard now.

[lovuian]

14. Global Warming isn't the only mechanism going on here

thats what got the scientists stumped... their models are failing... they thought it would take hundreds and hundreds of years to melt Antartica but now its turning out to be the warmest changing climate in the world...compared to its normal temperatures... We have triggered a whole planet climate change... we are all connected ... I still believe the poles are shifting...and when it does happen it will happen quickly... the scientists really don't have a clue ... their models are useless because they don't know whats going on... climate change is inevitable and the Earth is going to be looking very differently...

It makes you believe the story about Noah...

[donsu]

15. I don't believe the Noah story but I too have read that the poles are

moving. and the equator is bulging. they think the bulging is due to ice melt but they don't really know why. and they don't know how much it will bulge.

whatever shit is going to happen will happen fast. like, one day you get up and the Gulf Stream has moved. or the Gulf Stream dissapates. they don't know which or both.

food

pure water

are you prepared?

[dipsydoodle]

17. A complete pole shift to magnetic south

isn't something we can influence. When it does happens , as it does from time to time , I would think the consequences would be devasting. The whole of the earth's mantle shifts on the central core.

here's some info on the subject : http://www.halexandria.org/dward761.htm

[Jose Diablo]

19. It's gonna get wet, if the ice melts in the Antarctic

they say it would take hundreds of years to melt all the ice in the Antarctic, but I don't know. It's hard to predict the changes going on. What will the ocean currents look like? And what about the air currents?

I'd say it's impossible to predict. All our predictions are based on whats happened in the past, but it seems to me, this sort of thing hasn't happened in the past, or at least if it did we don't have much data on what happened and how.

I read someplace that if the all the ice in Antarctica melts, the ocean level will go up a couple hundred feet. If that happens we can kiss all the ocean front areas goodbye.

It would make sense the oceans have a wide difference in levels depending on the average global temperatures.

There is even observations of submarine caves in the Bahamas in limestone deposits that resemble caves in Tennessee and Kentucky made by seeping freshwater through layers of limestone. This would indicate that at some time in the past, the Bahamas were much higher than the sea level. The only way to explain this would be the sea levels raising and lowering dramatically over geological time periods. But none of this would give a time length on what that 'geological time' it takes to change. Could it be 100's or 1000's of years, or could it be as short as a couple years, once the teeter-tooter tips?

But maybe, overall it might not be the end, it would shut-down our culture, but I think we (humanity)would go on, at a much reduced population.

[Blue_In_AK]

28. I have heard there was a period 70,000 years ago or so

when rapid climate change reduced the human population to somewhere around 10,000 people. It could happen again. My guess is the people who would survive would be the indigenous folk who are most like their prehistoric ancestors. Maybe this is the real meaning of "the meek shall inherit the earth."

[Uncle Joe]

27. I wonder if the poles shift, will that affect the magnetic field? n/t

[earth mom]

26. Our poor earth!

:cry: