Disintegration of Iraq would pose multiple problems for Israel

[leftchick]

I found this by way of Juan Cole's site. It is very interesting....

http://www.juancole.com/

In a truly excellent article, Asher Susser of the Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University argues that a break-up of Iraq into sectarian or ethnic statelets would be a catastrophe for Israel, Turkey and Jordan (all three of which have good diplomatic relations with one another). Susser also points to the peripheralization of the Sunni Arabs, with Iran and its Shiite allies no increasingly central.

Susser's article does not only represent the views of liberal Israeli academics. It has reached me from Americans briefed by Israeli intelligence and military officers that the latter are extremely worried that Iraq's instability will blow back on Israel. It already has blown back on Jordan, of course.


Disintegration of Iraq would pose multiple problems for Israel

By Asher Susser
Commentary by
Tuesday, April 04, 2006


The possible fragmentation of Iraq is a most unwelcome prospect from the Israeli point of view. Some observers, locked in perceptions of a bygone era, might still think otherwise. In the 1960s and 1970s, when Israel was deeply involved in conflict with core Middle Eastern states - Egypt, Syria and Jordan - it was extremely apprehensive about possible Iraqi wartime military assistance to its Arab enemies. Israel consequently developed a particularly friendly relationship with the non-Arab periphery of the region, particularly Iran, and actively pursued a covert relationship with the Kurds in Iraq in support of their secessionist struggle against the central government in Baghdad. Israel's interests have, however, radically changed since then, as have the concepts of core and periphery in the Middle East.

Israel has made its peace with key players of the Arab core, Egypt and Jordan. It maintains an uneasy modus vivendi with Syria and low-intensity conflict with the Palestinians. The balance of power between Israel and its Arab neighbors has shifted markedly in Israel's favor. Generally, in the last two decades or so, the Arabs have been considerably weakened, with former regional powers having lost their hegemonic status. Egypt no longer wields the regional clout it once enjoyed. Syria under President Bashar Assad is but a shadow of its former self. It has been forced out of Lebanon and is substantially isolated. Iraq has been crushed by the American invasion, and Saudi Arabia, even with oil prices going through the roof, is not as wealthy as it once was. Moreover, the kingdom is suffering from domestic terrorism, and has had a somewhat less intimate relationship with the U.S. since Sept. 11, 2001.

much more....http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id=23478

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. Very interesting article. Unexpected consequences.

Sort of like the IEDs instead of the expected flowers that surprised Rummy and the PNAC planners. Unfortunately, the same geniuses now have even more ammunition for an attack on the new bogeymen in Tehran.

[Neil Lisst]

2. Great article and absolutely correct. Iraq is a manufacturing center

for Islamic trouble, for the entire region.

All the Islamic states like Turkey, Jordan, and Egypt, which have decent relations with Israel, will see more troubles with their extreme elements.

[jody]

3. A separate Kurdish country would give Israel access to Kurd oil. n/t

[endarkenment]

4. Well gosh I guess we should have left the brutal dictator in power.

Isn't that the conclusion here?

The fact that Israel and the US have been propping up brutal dictatorships, generally brutal sunni-dominated dictatorships, for decades, keeping the corrupt Egyptian and Saudi regimes in power, keeping our former good buddy Saddam in power before he became our favorite boogeyman, is now all coming home to roost. We indeed broke the despicable system installed by the French and British after WWI by toppling the Iraqi regime, and in doing so we have made Iran the dominant muslim force in the region.

Perhaps a sane approach would be to treat Iran with the respect due a co-equal regional power, rather than treating it like a rogue state and assuming that shiites are by definition bad, and to address the ongoing problem of a palestinian homeland in a just and equitable fashion rather than pretending that a bantustan surrounded by a ghetto wall is going to solve this problem.

"Considering the alternatives, none appears more appealing than the restoration of the integrity of an independent, unoccupied, Arab-Kurdish Iraqi state, which would probably be more inclined to restrain Iranian influence than an occupied and fragmented Iraq."

Yes well that is nice but it is not going to happen, other than the unoccupied part. Too late for that.

[leftchick]

5. kind of makes the PNAC plan for the mideast

look like a fantasy now doesn't it?