America is "addicted to oil"? Let's stage an OIL INTERVENTION!

[robertpaulsen]

I also put this in the Activist Forum but was interested what people in general thought here. This is part of a letter I sent to moveon.org in answer to an e-mail they sent:



I had an idea for improving our tactics in protesting the war in Iraq. Everyone knows one of the biggest reasons Bush invaded Iraq was to control their oil, anyone who doubted this had egg on their face when the military guarded the Oil Ministry records and let the museums be looted. But now the pusher presumes to lecture the junkie, telling us we are "addicted to oil".

I suggest we throw the pResident's rhetoric back in his face. America is addicted to oil? It's time to stage an Oil Intervention. I propose acts of non-violent civil disobedience to protest the war and at the same time reduce our consumption of oil. Organizing an Oil Intervention means organizing protests at gas stations, effectively blockading them so that no oil can be purchased.

Obviously, certain aspects of such a protest could not be promoted publicly, such as the dates, times and location. But I believe moveon.org can do a great deal to help promote and organize such protests. After helping activists connect with others in their area, they can then iron out the details privately about when, where and how the Oil Intervention will be carried out.

Yes, this is against the law. Yes, we will be arrested. We have to ask ourselves this tough question: how serious are we about stopping the war? Serious enough to go to jail? This question shouldn't be too tough to answer for the committed activist. On this day when we remember the murder of Martin Luther King 38 years ago, I ask you to consider a request to promote acts of civil disobedience that I believe would honor his memory.

[robertpaulsen]

1. Anyone?

:kick:

[happyslug]

2. Do NOT give the GOP an excuse for the upcoming increase in gasoline prices

And that is what you will be doing, providing the GOP cover for the upcoming jump in oil prices. I can see it now, "Protesters block people from buying Gasoline, Gasoline goes to $5 a gallon on people's fear of NOT being able to get Gasoline do to Protesters".

I foresee a jump in the price of Gasoline this Summer. People already have they travel plans in place (Which will push the price of Gasoline up, China and India is buying Oil left and right (Which will push the price of Gasoline up, most of this increase is NOT for personnel transport but for electrical production and the transportation of Goods). Europe is addicted to oil as the US, except it taxes Gasoline to subsidize other means of transportation. This leads to two problem as the base price of Gasoline goes up. Most people in Europe who can opt out of Oil have done so at the price it is at present AND do to the price being 3-4 times the price in the US, a doubling of price in the US may be only an 25% increase in Europe (Which means Europe can only reduce its use of Oil SLOWER than the US).

Remember when you have a rapid increase in anything, there are only two ways to reduce the price, first is find and put on the market more product (which is NOT going to Happen and what additional product that may hit the market will NOT meet the increase in Demand). The other method is to reduce demand. The way demand is reduce is by pricing people out of the ability to buy the product (or make an alternative product profitable compared to the product in shortage).

Thus when it comes to Oil and Gasoline the issue is HOW does the world reduce its DEMAND for oil? The number 1 user of Oil is the US, Japan is Second, China is Third (Sometime these two are reversed for for the last few years they are close to each other), third is India and than comes the members of the EU (Which tend to be listed individually, if listed under the EU would be #2 to the US in oil usage).

The rest of the world is a distant also run when it comes to energy usage. The biggest set being the so call "Asia Tigers" of East Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Taiwan and Korea with the Philippines some time added into the mix). The 1997 oil glut was caused when the economy of these Asia Tigers fell and they all reduced the use of oil (Remember Gasoline under a $1 a gallon?). The Oil market was not as tight as it is now thus when the demand from these countries dried up the price of oil dropped like a rock. Oil Usage of these countries have never truly recovered. What oil is used is in high return (for these countries) section of the they economy (which by definition they will pay for even if oil prices increases by a factor or ten). The same with most of the Third World (outside of India and China). Most of the people in these countries can NOT afford oil, so they do without. What oil is used is for what they believe is essential use and they will pay whatever the market will bare (For example oil to cook they food, oil to keep warm, etc). Now there are some ways to reduce oil usage (An example is the widespread introduction of Solar Cookers in Africa and other semi-arid lands) but as a whole the use of oil in the Third world is price inelastic even at ten times today's prices (Remember if you can afford a car in these third world countries you can afford Gasoline even at $10 a gallon).

China and India are also using Gasoline NOT for personnel transportation of its workers (Through more and more Middle Class people in both Countries are using cars) but for transport and electrical generation (When Electrical plants are to small for present demand). Europe is in a Similar Boat (and is the Former Soviet Union). Through it should be noted Europe can reduce its oil usage way easier than the third world AND the US given its traditional high gasoline taxes.

Thus what group who is using oil daily, world wide, can stop using oil at less than $10 a gallon? The answer are American Minimal wage workers who drive to work. People may be surprised by this but in the US most Minimum Wage workers work in the Suburbs and drive to work. This group falls into two sub-groups, Students still living at home or at Collage (With their student loans paying for the Tuition and Dorm Room) AND non-students who are doing this type of work (Through to be honest, most Students end up doing retail while non-students end up doing Janitorial or other non-retail work).

The problem is at Minimum wage total income is just over $10,000 a year (there is 2080 hours in a work year of 52 weeks, 40 hours per week which at $5.15 per hour comes to $10,712). Even these workers pay Social Security Taxes of 7% and often a wage tax of 2% (and in my home state of Pennsylvania a flat income tax rate of 3.07% for this I will use 3% for ease of Calculation). Thus 12% of a person income goes for Taxes even in this low income group. If the person is in Public Housing, he or she has to pay 30% of his or her income for housing. Thus by the time we discuss "discretionary income" 42% of a minimal wage worker's income is already spent (and thus the rent for a year is $3000 a year or $250 a month, if the person is NOT in public Housing he is paying market rent which can be 2-3 times $250 per month). Also remember if two people live together in Public Housing it is still 30% of BOTH Income so moving in with someone does NOT help someone in Public Housing but does help someone in non-public Housing. Simple put out of the total yearly income of $10,712, $4409.04 is spent on Taxes and Housing. This leaves $6212.96 for the rest of the worker's needs.

Now people need to eat. There are 365 days in the year and most people eat three meals a day. This comes to 1095 meals a day. Food prices is going up but at least in theory you can still average $2 a meal. This comes to $ 2190 a year. Thus after food the minimal wage worker only has $4022.96 for any expense related to getting to and from work. If you assume $1000 for insurance, repairs, Maintenance and the payments on the car you have $3022.96 left for gasoline.

The typical driver drives 15,000 miles a year. The average car gets 20 mpg, thus a typical driver uses 750 gallons per year. At $2 a gallon that is $1500 per year. At $3 a gallon that is $2250 per year and at $4 a gallon $3000 a year. Thus at $4 a gallon the minimum wage worker has only $22.96 to spent on clothing, education, entertainment etc for THE WHOLE YEAR (or less than $2 a month).

Now most workers earn more than minimum wage, but food cost is also more than $2 a meal. My point is somewhere between $3 and $4 a gallon American low wage workers can NO longer drive to work. They can walk or bike to work but NOT use they automobiles. Given the most Public Housing and low income Housing is in the inner cities and the Jobs are in the Suburbs how do these people get to work? Some will try mopeds (if they can afford them, most mopeds are NOT sold used at the present time and the going price new is $2000 which such workers do not tend to have). Other will try Mass transit (But most of the work these minimum workers are doing is night shift and outside New York and one or two other cities, most transit systems just do not operate between midnight and 6:00 am (If they stay operating that late).

Thus once gasoline goes above $3 a gallon, we are in uncharted Territories, In the late 1970s the price of Gasoline reached (in today's term) about $2.85 a gallon (and in the 1970s we had a Renaissance in Mass Transit do to the earlier 1973 Oil Embargo so we were at least a little bit prepared for high Gasoline prices). When will Minimum wage workers STOP driving to work? When will local mass transit decide to increase rates do to high oil prices so that even Mass Transit is NOT a viable option for low income people? Will local Government start to encourage bicycle usage (i.e. by making existing four lane highways into two lane highways with bike lanes on both sides? Will the State and Federal Government emphasis mass transit? Or will both leave the subject to future generations?

What will causes the above? First is the fact oil supplies are tight and will continue to be tight for the foreseeable future. The US has made NO Real efforts to reduce oil usage and will not for the only way to do so is to attack the use of the personnel automobile. No politician will attack people right to drive, no matter how it is hurting the Country. We are a nation of oil addicts and as such we will continue to use until we can no longer afford it. People, like most addicts, will blame EVERYONE but themselves for the resulting jump in price. Thus my first statement DO NOT GIVE THE OIL COMPANIES SOMEONE ELSE TO BLAME THE UPCOMING JUMP IN GASOLINE PRICE ON. People will blame the oil Companies, the "Liberals" for NOT opening up ANWR, the Arabs for having all the Oil, Saddam for being Saddam etc. ANWR we can address (18 months of oil over a 20 year period will shut most people up) the other are all in control of the GOP (or controls the GOP).

One more comment, China and Japan has a huge amount of US Debt. This debt can be used to purchased oil. Furthermore it looks like China is just about to switch from buying US debt securities to selling the securities it now has. IF that happens the Dollar will lose 30% of its value. In the period from 1970-2000 that would have meant a world wide drop in oil prices (except for the US) of 30% for oil is priced in Dollars, but this connection was broke in the first half of 2005 when the price of oil went up in terms of Dollars but stayed steady in terms of Euros. The speculation at the time was OPEC was pricing oil in Euros but invoicing in Dollars. In the second half of 2005 oil went up do to the tight market of oil (and Katrina) but the truly scarey part is NOT the second half but the first half of 2005. The First half shows that the Connection between the Dollar and the price of oil is no longer valid and thus a 30% drop in the value of the Dollar will lead to a 30% increase in the price of oil OVER AND ABOVE THE INCREASE IN PRICE DO TO A TIGHT OIL MARKET. Another reason NOT to block gas stations.

Now, you can still protests, informing people that they use of oil in hurting the US is Good, but keep it peaceful and leave them have access to their gasoline (the people will view it as "Their Gasoline"). Other protest would be going on a bicycle with a sign saying "I am not supporting bin Laden, by NOT buying Oil, are you supporting bin Laden by buying oil?" In fact such a protest will get people's attention by connecting they use of oil with bin Laden. A peaceful but clear protest that keeps reminding people of the connection between Saudi oil and bin Laden will do more good RIGHT NOW than any blockage of gas stations or any acts of violence.

[robertpaulsen]

3. Here's my logic on this.

I totally understand where you're coming from, happyslug. Most of what you say I agree with. Gasoline prices will definitely go through the roof this summer, they have already gone up 30 cents in the last month. Because of the tightness of oil supply, the only way to drive the price down is through demand destruction. We can't expect our current excuse for a government (oiligarchy) to do anything proactive to foster this, but conservation is the way to do it.

I think Oil Interventions would be one step toward achieving this. Maybe there's too much naivete behind my idealism on this, but if every city had committed activists participating, I think it can increase awareness of the benefits of conservation. I don't think this kind of protest would be effective if it were only done every six months, or on the anniversary of the war. You know, a significantly length of time. But I do think it would be effective if it were done once a week or biweekly.

Sure, people will get mad. They'll drive to another gas station where there isn't an Oil Intervention taking place. And that gas station will probably be crowded due to the other customers who were going to purchase at a blockaded station, which will piss them off even more.

So why do I think this idea will work? Because if we keep staging Oil Interventions on a regular basis, the public will maintain awareness of which day the Oil Interventions are taking place and rather than face crowds, they will plan ahead and not buy gas that day!

This will cause two things to happen: the price of gas will go down that day and people will be aware that this was due to the Oil Intervention. This will diffuse their anger and make them more receptive to our message.

Yes, this will take time. Yes, the GOP and the Corporate Media will ridicule, smear and attack us. But with perserverance, I believe the truth will out. Not that I don't love your idea about the bicycle sign, that's a real attention getter. But I still believe that persistant, massive, confrontational, yet NON-VIOLENT civil disobedience is the best way to shake people and increase awareness of the issues of oil dependence and the Iraq War. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Cindy Sheehan would agree with me.

[happyslug]

6. But that just shift the day or location of the Purchase

As opposed to actual reduction in the purchasing of oil. People just an NOT shift that quickly, they "need" the oil to get to work. They need to get to work to earn a wage to pay their bills. Thus such protests will NOT reduce the USE of oil (which we both agree has to occur).

The better option in my opinion are informational protests. Protest where people are NOT stopped from buying oil, but are informed of WHERE and from WHOM the oil is coming from. To many Americans truly believe we can be self-sufficient in oil WITHOUT ANY REDUCTION IN PERSONNEL AUTOMOBILE USE. THis is what the informational campaign is aimed at, educating the American Public on HOW addicted we are as a nation to FOREIGN oil AND the only way to end such addition is to REDUCE USAGE.

Furthermore, telling people we have to reduce usage we also have to tell them HOW. Thus my idea of the bicycle campaign showing people they can bike to work or to the mall.

I always point out St Paul as HOW to Convert people, he NEVER told anyone he or she was a sinner and he NEVER attacked any of the God Cults of his Time period. He did call them "False" but never attacked them. Why? He wanted to convert and to convert you first have to get the information to them AND make sure they are NOT turned off by the information. Your plan to disrupt people fueling will just get people mad at people protesting about the price of oil instead of having those drivers mad at the high cost of Gasoline. Remember the Number 1 rule in propaganda, NEVER TURN OFF YOUR AUDIENCE. St Paul never violated that rule, Gobbles never Violated that rule, Madison Avenue never violate that rule and nether should we.

In many aspects Martin Luther King's Civil Rights protests in the 1950s NEVER violated this rule. He made sure his people NEVER hit a police officer WHY? Even in the 1950s Police were viewed by most Americans as "Good Guys". Thus if you attacked an Officer you were going to be viewed as a "Bad Guy" not that you were defending yourself. The Police of the South depended on this perception to show that the Blacks protesters were Troublemakers NOT people protesting for their rights. King changed that by making sure NONE of his people ever hit an officer and ALL actions were done by the Police against the Protesters NOT the other way around. This took a lot of discipline for most people will try to defend themselves when water cannon and dogs are set on them, but it worked for the resulting film did NOT support the Police position that these were DANGEROUS protesters that the Police had to use force to protect society from.

Thus I see NOTHING but Negatives in any protest that PREVENTS people from gassing they vehicles. On the other hand positive informational protest will be more effective. Here are some ideas:

1. In my previous post a bicycle with a sign saying "I am not using Oil from bin Laden's oil fields" would be a nice one. Another would be "9 of the 10 911 hijackers were from Arabia, as was bin Laden, I am not paying for more terrorist by using Saudi Oil".

2. Magnetic signs put on cars (I emphasis magnetic for they are easy to Peel off and leave no damage to the car unlike stick on bumper stickers) with the same message i.e. "I am driving this SUV, so I can pay the Saudis who will pay bin Laden...." or "I support bin Laden with every purchase of Gasoline I make". I emphasis that the sign has to be magnetic so NO damage is done to people cars (or gas pumps).

3. Show up at your local Government and ask them what are they doing to reduce THEY use of Oil. Are they buying more fuel efficient police cars (the police like they full size Cruisers with V-8 engines). Are they looking into bicycle police and even Motorcycles (and try to get them to buy SMALL motorcycle,s which for Police is 600ccs instead of the large Harley the Police tend to like). One last comment when the Police say they need the big engines to catch fleeing criminals, point out they have RADIOS to call in other officers to intercept the suspect AND they should NOT be SPEEDING down the streets for all it does is endanger innocent bystanders (i.e. tell them it may be better off using technology to catch criminals as opposed to excess speed). Furthermore ask when was the last time they use that Speed? Not some "Other Officer" or theoretical situation BUT actual use and why they could not have done the same with a smaller car? The next response will be they need the bigger car for hauling prisoners in the back seat, again ask them how often that occurs and when was the last time they did haul a prisoner THAT COULD NOT WAIT FOR A another car to take the Prisoner in (i.e. emphasis that smaller cars will do what the police do 99% of the time and the other 1% is NOT worth the extra use of gasoline during the other 99% of Police work).

Other ways to reduce local government gasoline usage is asking hy do children ride a bus, why can't they walk? If the response back is the roads are unsafe ask them what are they doing about making the road safe for kids to walk to school, if the answer is the School is to far, ask them why do they not build Schools closer to where the Children are?

My point here they are a lot of base work that needs to be done BEFORE you start even talking about protest that disrupt people buying gas. This work HAS to be done. You need to make sure people KNOW why we are protesting. While many of the people in this forum know about the upcoming oil crisis, most American do NOT, we have to educate them before we can do any EFFECTIVE protest that does any real good at reducing oil usage in the US.

Remember people will listen to you if their ears are open, but if you look like you are attacking them they will close their ears. We have to make sure people are listening to us and that is hard work for we have to keep telling people who seems not to care. But even advertisers know this is NOT true, people exposed to an idea will slowly accept that idea IF IT MAKES SENSE AND IT DOES NOT THREATEN THEM. This is how we MUST attack this the problem of Peak Oil, Informational NOT confrontational.

[Strelnikov_]

4. ..

[robertpaulsen]

5. Thanks! I needed that.

I set that one to wallpaper my computer.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl: