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worldwide counter-proliferation capabilty--was likely the real target--that is, Plame plus her covert projects, agents, contacts and accumulated knowledge and expertise.
Some good guesses that have been made as to why:
1. Cheney or other Bushite illicit arms/nukes dealings, that BJ was getting on to.
2. Money trails or other evidence re: 9/11, terrorist networks, or other crimes/dirty dealings that might track back to Bushites. (Why do you think they are "rendering" all those anonymous people off to torture dungeons in eastern Europe and other torture-friendly, distant countries? I'm very suspicious about that.)
3. The WMD-planting theory.
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The WMD-planting theory is the most Byzantine of the three, but it does have some very compelling aspects. For one thing, it explains why the "crude" Niger forgeries were "crude" rather than expert. (Because they were INTENDED to be easily detected by the CIA, to ENTICE them into a public, or on-the-record, no-nukes-in-Iraq position--to discredit and make fools of them--and make them more easily purgable--when planted WMDs were "found.") What was notorious (Iran-Contra) arms dealer, Manucher Ghorbanifar, doing at the Rome meeting, in 2001, where the Niger forgeries were likely cooked up? (Planning his revenge on the CIA, for anathematizing him as a liar, by procuring the nukes to be planted in Iraq.) Why were all the top Bushites so upset about an op-ed piece (July 6) by an ex-diplomat, Joseph Wilson, in a newsstream they had almost complete control over, such that they would all put themselves at max risk of treason charges, in what appears to be a panic, in the week of July 6-14? They already half-expected the article, and might even have baited Wilson to publish it. Why all these secret memos and clandestine meetings, and flurries on AF-1, and calls to at least SIX reporters (journalist witnesses to treason), that week? What was the rush to punish Wilson, that such risks were taken?
Ah! Here's the crux. July 7 is the date that started the panic. Not July 6. On July 7, Tony Blair was informed that the Brits' chief WMD expert, David Kelly--who had been whistleblowing to the BBC about the prewar intel--knew more than he was telling the BBC and "could say some uncomfortable things." July 14: Plame outed by Novak. July 18: Kelly found dead, under highly suspicious circumstances--his office and computers are searched. July 22: Brewster-Jennings, headquarters of this entire CIA counter-proliferation network outed (also by Novak), putting all covert agents and contacts around the world at great risk of getting killed.
They may have been planning to "get" the CIA with their nefarious WMD-planting scheme, but SOMEONE foiled them. No WMDs were "found." They were furious. Blair calls Bush (July 7); says Kelly knows. They suspect Plame/BJ, and have the political cover story of the Wilson article all set up, for outing Plame. Plame gets outed. Kelly gets suicided. They get evidence on BJ, with no cover story, really; Novak outs BJ anyway (July 22), and they and the war profiteering news monopolies have been downplaying THAT DATE ever since.
That's the theory. Treasongate is a coverup of their damnable scheme of setting up an expectation of nukes in Iraq--against all reason--then making it come true, by "planting" the nukes there, to be "found" probably by Judith Miller.* David Kelly may have lost his life--was murdered (probable) or committed suicide under pressure (less likely, given his character and the facts of his death)--for finding out about this scheme, and/or helping to foil it. The coincidence of Kelly's death is just too coincidenty to be ignored (and the anomalies re: the suicide story are huge). He was already whistleblowing (a mystery by itself--he had approved of the war initially--he wanted Saddam ousted), and so, if this theory is true, he would have been a very serious threat to both the Bushites and the Blairites. (The Blairites, after they found out he was the whistleblower--yet another mystery--interrogated him at a safe house and threatened him with the Official Secrets Act, in the first week of July, culminating in the report to Blair July 7.) But Kelly being suicided or not is not critical to the main theory--it just makes it immensely sadder. The massive attempt to deceive the American people and the world with planted nukes is what the Bushites were covering up--according to this theory--by frightening and silencing Plame, possibly getting some of her agents/contacts killed, and shutting down her ability to do her job of counter-proliferation. I think the foiling of such a plan--and the fear of its disclosure--is a much a more likely motivator for the outing of Plame and Brewster-Jennings than Wilson's article.
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*(And I wonder about the Libby/Miller meeting of July 8, in regard to Kelly. David Kelly and Judith Miller were old friends and colleagues. She used Kelly as a major quoted source in her book "Germs." And it was to Miller that Kelly wrote one of his last emails, on the day he died, July 17, in which he was worried about "the many dark actors playing games." Not only does this sound ominous, but it establishes that Kelly and Miller were in communication at that time, and that he considered Miller a confidante. Miller failed to discose this email, or her close connection to Kelly, in the news article she wrote about his death a few days later. Sketched in timeline: July 7: Blair is told Kelly knows about their scheme and its foiling; Blair calls Bush, possibly on AF-1; Bush calls Cheney; Cheney calls Libby; Libby meets with Miller the next day, July 8, to consult about Kelly, since she knows him well, and about Plame, whom they suspect of having foiled their scheme (and Libby brings the redundant NIE as cover for why he is meeting with Miller.) (Note: Kelly started whistleblowing to the BBC in late May, so the Libby/Miller meeting in June could also have been about him.)
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