Iran-- Up to one million casualties ?!?

[TexasLawyer]

From Popular Science, June 2005-- Reporting on the conclusion by National Acadamy of Sciences that the bunker buster may leave many targets unscathed and could result in more than one million civilian casualties.

Bombs Away?
Scientists cast doubt over the Pentagon’s plan to build a new nuclear bunker buster
<snip>

On all counts, an earth-tunneling bomb is a tall order. The sole nuclear bunker buster in the U.S. arsenal, the 300-kiloton B61, can’t penetrate rock. According to the NAS, to strike deeply buried targets in rocky terrain would require a one-megaton bomb or stronger—one that is up to 80 times as potent as the Hiroshima bomb. What’s more, the RNEP (Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator) would need to burrow thousands of feet into the ground to contain fallout from the blast.

Nuking a bunker, in four steps

1. A B-2 bomber flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet drops a modified B83 nuclear weapon carrying a 1.2-megaton warhead. It travels 2,000 feet per second toward its ground target.

2. Assuming the soil is composed of granite, the nuke will penetrate to a depth of 20 feet within 100 milliseconds. Radar sensors on the warhead detonate the nuke once it has plowed to its target depth, releasing the energy of more than a million tons of TNT.

3. The blast creates a 1,200-foot-wide crater and sends a shock wave traveling 1,116 feet per second through the ground. The wave will destroy everything down to 1,000 feet. Any bunkers deeper than that could survive the blast.

4. The National Academy of Sciences estimates that the explosion will shoot some 300,000 tons of radioactive debris up to 15 miles into the air. The total number of casualties will vary but could exceed one million, depending on weather, wind velocity and the blast’s proximity to towns and cities.

http://www.popsci.com/popsci/technology/generaltechnology/cfb965e919d05010vgnvcm1000004eecbccdrcrd.html

[AllieB]

1. Didn't an earthquake kill 20,000 only two years ago?

Haven't these poor people suffered enough?

[TexasLawyer]

12. Major Iranian earthquakes over the last 30 years

Bombing Iran will clearly kill, injure or leave homeless many innocent people.

1978, Sept. 16, Tabas, Iran: earthquake destroyed city in eastern Iran, leaving 25,000 dead.

1990, June 21, northwest Iran: magnitude 7.7 earthquake destroyed cities and villages in Caspian Sea area. At least 40,000 dead, over 60,000 injured, and 400,000 homeless.

1997, May 12, northeast Iran: severe earthquake measuring 7.3 in magnitude left more than 1,500 people dead and at least 4,460 injured.

2003, Dec. 26, Bam, Iran: magnitude 6.6 earthquake devastated the ancient historic city of Bam in southeast Iran, killing 26,200 people, injured 30,000, and left 75,000 homeless, as mud-brick buildings collapsed.

2005, Feb. 22, Zarand, Iran: magnitude 6.4 earthquake in central Iran shook more than 40 villages, killing at least 612 people, injuring over 1,400, and destroying villages with many mud–brick houses.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0001439.html

[oasis]

2. Bush will likely say "the collateral damage is estimated at 30,000".

"But we kept 'Murica safe" :eyes:

[DBoon]

3. and anyone who tries to publish a more realistic count

of civilian casualties will be denounced as pushing a leftist pro-terrorist agenda.

[TexasLawyer]

4. Iran is a mountainous land.

I didn't know much about Iranian terrain. This is from a tourism web-site. I imagine that if Iran has bunkers, they're buried under mountains and not under sand. Just to state the obvious.

http://www.ecotour-iran.com/glance_mountains.htm



Iran is a mountainous land. In a general view, the mountains of Iran include two main ranges of "Alborz" with an east-west direction and "Zagros" with a northwest-southeast extension, which cover most of the high mountains in Iran. Many "single" high mountains are also spread in other areas and specially around the central plateau of Iran.

Due to the extremely high altitudal variation in Iran, ranging from 28m below the sea level up to 5671m on Damavand Mount, very beautiful views and climatic variations can be seen all over the country. It is now a famous saying in Iran that one can have one's first half of the day enjoying winter sports like snow skiing, and the other half doing water sports like surfing!

[Imagevision]

5. with civil war already started in Iraq...Bush ain't bombing nobody - Next?

[sheelz]

8. Why do you think the civil war in Iraq will prevent Bush from

bombing Iran?

[David in Canada]

15. Bush & Logic = Oxymoron

Never, EVER credit Shrub with the ability of logic or critical thinking. :)

If Shrub wants to nuke Iran, he'll do it regardless of the facts. If Iraq blows up as a consequence, the psychopath with probably masturbate to the images of carnage.

[tocqueville]

6. 1000 feet is probably overestimated

the Castle Bravo bomb that exploded on the ground and was of 15 MEGATON made a crater of 75 m (250 ft). Besides
1000 feet sounds much but it's only 300 meters. Many hard rock mines are more than 3000 feet deep...

[FogerRox]

16. exactly, its BS

[Selatius]

7. I believe the use of such a weapon should be considered a WAR CRIME

If your scientists are telling you these weapons will likely produce radioactive fallout downwind from the blast site and you still choose to use them anyway, you have basically said it's okay to kill innocent civilians. You should be thrown into prison for life for making such a decision.

[Berserker]

9. I'm trying to get my mind right

bush don't want Iran to have nukes so we will attack them with nukes? Am I getting this right? Somehow this don't compute.

[oasis]

14. Hellooooo. We're the "good guys" ........so it's A okay.

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[madrchsod]

11. here`s some sat pictures

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/natanz-imagery3.htm

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/arak-imagery3.htm


ttp://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iran/esfahan-imagery.htm

[FogerRox]

13. utter BS

From what I have read from IIRC Atomic Scientists magazine, It wont work. 1000 ft down? NOpe.
60 feet, yes. A nuke doesnt deal with solid rock very well. What would work better is a tungsten based penatrator, used as a kinetic weapon, released from orbit.

[TexasLawyer]

17. And this would be a possible million casualties

per nuke.

[TexasLawyer]

18. And how many nukes would be used?

It sounds like there are lots of targets, and that there is some uncertainty regarding where strategic targets are located. As per the Sy Hersh article:

The Pentagon adviser questioned the value of air strikes. “The Iranians have distributed their nuclear activity very well, and we have no clue where some of the key stuff is. It could even be out of the country,” he said. He warned, as did many others, that bombing Iran could provoke “a chain reaction” of attacks on American facilities and citizens throughout the world: “What will 1.2 billion Muslims think the day we attack Iran?”

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/articles/060417fa_fact