Why do these fools think they are going to win the midterm?

[KingFlorez]

It amazes me when I see freepers going on about how Republicans are going to win all these seats in Congress, they just ignore all the poll numbers and all the trouble the GOP is in and still insist they are going to win. Are they delusional or just stupid?

[proud2BlibKansan]

1. You answered your own question

They are fools.

[havocmom]

4. and delusional

Sadly, their side programs the vote.

[Cooley Hurd]

2. Both...

Delusional AND stupid.

Hey... you asked. ;)

[Laelth]

3. Diebold?

:shrug:

-Laelth

[Jackpine Radical]

5. Two words & an acronym: Diebold. Sequoia. ES&S.

What makes you think they're NOT gonna "win?"

[Media_Lies_Daily]

8. Bingo. Until those things you mention are brought under control...

...I don't count on anything good coming out of any election.

[bullimiami]

6. they have been stealing elections since 1998 and it is getting worse.

what makes anyone think we will be able to stop them?

almost nothing has been done.

[SoCalDem]

7. D I E B O L D ...and control of media

a media who will happily spin "the latest poll numbers" to show that republicans are :

closing the gap
making gains
coming on strongly
showing signs of strenghtening
withing a few points

etc
etc
etc

these things start happening as the election nears, and when an "upset" happens, any shenanigans are explained away by "the numbers"..

They have done this several times, and have it down to a science

[TexasLawyer]

19. and then when the surprise win happens, it's:

a real Cinderella story;
a come-from-behind, exciting horse race;
a freshly motivated base;
an effective get-out-the-vote program among "values" voters;
erroneous exit polls;

and so on.

[Hamlette]

9. Gerrymandering, we will have a hard time taking back the house

of 435 seats only 16 are in play, We have to win 15 of them. The rest of them are so horridly gerrymandered, mostly in favor of the GOP, we are not competitive.

Don't get your hopes up. It doesn't matter what he polls show. When you factor in swift boating and gerrymandering we might not win.

[bunkerbuster1]

12. People discount the effectiveness of modern-day gerrymandering

People don't seem to understand that it's not all that difficult to set up near-guaranteed incumbant success even if you only have 30% or so nationwide support.

While I don't discount the E-voting schnanigans that surely go on, the Goopers don't really need them to win. All they need is to cling to what they've got.

I think we've got a shot at those House seats in play, but it is going to be very tough sledding.

[Rocket Surgeon]

17. Yup, its all gerrymandering...

The only voice the people get is with the Senate. I take it there are about 33 Senate seats up for grabs this year.

[newyawker99]

24. Hi Rocket Surgeon!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Lexingtonian]

14. that's buying into internal GOP propaganda wholesale

and subscribing to their magical thinking.

We've already broken into or beaten back Republican gerrymanderings in Pennsylvania ('02), Kentucky ('04), Colorado ('04), Illinois ('04), and Texas ('04). They beat one or two Democratic district gerrymanderings in '02, at their height. Right now Republican and Republican incumbent protection gerrymanders are looking weak all over the place- California, Washington State, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, upstate New York, Connecticut, New Hampshire, along with deep further vulnerability in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Colorado. All the Border State gerrymanderings are creeping increasingly soft for them too.

The Michigan and New Jersey protective Republican district gerrymanderings are holding up for the time being, to appearances, which is regionally exceptional- but don't be too surprised if cracks and vulnerability "suddenly" show up in them too. Republican support is softening perceptively in the northern Plains states. The illegal immigration business and its regional/state level aftermath may do a lot to "activate" long passive Latino voters against Republicans in Florida and the Southwest.

The big turnaround elections are generally midterms, and they're usually not decided purely by one Party getting unusually high turnout- the 'landslide' result happens because a wing of the other Party stays home on Election Day.

What the polls show matters everything. Interpreting them naively is a common mistake, but at times they are pictures of a simple and harsh reality that will manifest itself at the ballot box exactly as the numbers say.

Every midterm election since 1990 at least- and perhaps the pattern holds for every midterm election since that of 1974, or earlier- has been consistent in being a defeat of the faction most in control of Congress. We've seen a succession of overtly Right wing Republicans ('74/'76), FDR Labor/Left Democrats ('78?/'80), liberal Republicans ('82?), 'Reagan' Republicans ('86), moderate Republicans ('90/'92), conservative Democrats ('94/'96), conservative Republicans ('98/'00), and moderate Democrats ('02/'04) bite the dust.

The present hardline Right Republican regime claims exceptionalism, and defeatism by Democrats and vulnerability to magical thinking makes this ridiculous assertion have some kind of public credibility.

What is exceptional about the present variety of Republicans in control is that they are the last politically viable faction of the coalition that Nixon created in 1968. With their defeat (no defeated faction truly returns to power) the GOP necessarily disintegrates and has to recoalesce as a redefined organization that competes for power.

Democrats are almost as badly worn out as a coalition- look at all the powerhungry Leftism in our side of the blogosphere that just feels wierdly irrelevant but acts entitled- but its liberal faction is undefeated and should default to control/ power when hardline Republicans are knocked out.

[Hamlette]

21. well, yeah, you know me, I don't know anything, I just buy the propaganda

wholesale and gerrymandering doesn't exist. The GOP only says it does to insure I don't go to the polls and vote. I never think for myself I let them think for me.

(Since gerrymandering doesn't exist, according to you, maybe you can explain why some congressional districts look like jig saw puzzle pieces on acid. Or, better still, you might explain how dems have "beaten back GOP gerrymanderings". I have no idea what you mean. I will admit that obviously the GOP has not been 100% successful in redrawing the districts to completely exclude all dems, but Colorado is the classic example of the diff between us and them. When the dems took the legis there, they refused to redraw the districts as the GOP did when they won in Texas. Or better yet, nevermind. I think I can live without being called a tool again.)

[Lexingtonian]

23. Thank you for misreading my reply

and answering questions I didn't raise, then asserting claims as mine that I don't make.

I'd love to know where you got your certainty that only 16 seats are in play. And gerrymanderings do fail when only 80% of the partisans the district is built around show up to vote, but 100% or 110% of normal minority partisans do.

[Hamlette]

28. if I misread you, I apologize, but gerrymandering is a reality & a problem

"And gerrymanderings do fail when only 80% of the partisans the district is built around show up to vote, but 100% or 110% of normal minority partisans do."

Yeah, but...how/when does that happen? Districts are gerrymandered by likely voters based on years of history. Admittedly, some are more safe than others. In my state a very conservative Dem won a safe GOP seat when the GOP candidate was caught in a scandal and ran a very nasty campaign. The Dem lost 2 years later.

Into the mix I would add "all politics is local". The 16 number is from house members who will retire this year, I should have said 17 since Delay is out. Incumbants enjoy a 99% chance of reelection. Sure, it could be different this year but I'm not counting on it. Another factor to add to the mix is blue states are losing seats and red states are gaining them.

[radwriter0555]

10. Diebold.

You're totally fucked with diebold in their hands.

[AndyTiedye]

11. Because They Own the News and They Own the Voting Machinez

They can steal as many votes as they need (and more,
if Dear Leader wants a "man date") and the media
will make up some story about angry white homophobes
coming out of the woodwork to vote Republican.


Republican Electing machinez

[Emit]

13. Here's why

GW BUSH - One of our Best Presidents EVER!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

George Bush will go down in history as one of our best presidents of all times. It has been since 2001 since we have been attacked. While there are a lot of people to thank for that security, it takes a person at the top that are not swayed by polls and criticism to follow what is right. We have already seen Hillary Clinton change from:

"I am, you know, adamantly against illegal immigrants," Hillary Clinton told WABC Radio's John Gambling in February of 2003. "People have to stop employing illegal immigrants," she told WABC (http://www.washtimes.com/national/20041213-124920-6151r.htm)

To:
"It is certainly not in keeping with my understanding of the Scripture because this bill would literally criminalize the Good Samaritan and probably even Jesus himself."

That BS is a “politician” but not a PRESIDENT. Presidential means doing the right thing and not bending every time a poll doesn’t follow your policy. Imagine this... Hillary hasn’t even said she’s running for president!

The qualities that we see in Bush is what makes great presidents. Compare this to Carter that held us hostage for 444 days. Nope, when it comes to election time it’s going to be about “values.” You don’t have values when they are changing daily like Clinton and Kerry. Kerry wants to cut and run... and we’re suppose to be surprised about that? He was a loser during Vietnam and a loser now. His job is for America to lose and him to win elections.

I am so thankful that I voted for Bush! Can you imagine the alternative! I wonder how many friends and relatives that I would be burring because some one like Kerry had his head buried in the sand.

God Bless GW Bush! And thank you God for giving him to us at a time he was most needed!

http://discussions.pbs.org/viewtopic.pbs?t=52682

And this:

Three Year War in Review

Today I reflect back and think how proud I am to be an American! I think about how close we came to having a Democrat run this country in a time of war. These people are not loyal and would have made a disaster of the war in Iraq ... So the Fox fair and balanced isn't about "conservative" it's about America. The fact that conservatives support America and liberals see that as a negative trait of conservatives just enforces what we've been saying all along. Liberals are anti-American and unpatriotic. You can disagree with the president all day long, the policies, the man, the congress, etc., but when you start taking the sides of the enemy you are not longer a decent American. Those women and men are fighting for your right to speak out, but that in no way validates that you are patriotic. You can be sleaze and they will fight for your right to be sleaze but afterwards you are still sleaze, to them and to other Americans. A 70 year old Jane Fonda is the poster child of such slime.

I expect a Fox reporter to pick up a gun and fight if it is necessary and they are in a position to help. This happened many times in Vietnam. And probably most of the time it was self-serving (self preservation) but I can't imagine an American, whether he is a reporter, a priest, etc., sitting back and not standing up for his own countrymen when needed.

~snip~

If we elected Democrats today, they would turn their back on our allies, let Iran build nukes and attack whom ever they wish and when that time would occur, as it certainly would, America would be taken down to their knees but this time it wouldn't be students but a direct nuclear threat to much more than just a few World Trade center buildings.

I think it is so easy to see the quality of the character where the Democrats have evolved. These are not decent people as a whole. They couldn't or wouldn't protect the country. They would allow our troops to leave and watch the slaughter of every Iraqi that ever helped an American, got paid by an American or supported America in any way. That is their loyalty and speaks volumes of their decency. This is why they were so quickly to defend Clinton as they really don't understand quality of an individual. A persons integrity, decency, loyalty, respect are all tied together. They are the first to pretend they care about the safety of troops in Iraq. Those old enough to remember the Vietnam war know this self-serving claims all too well. Ditto the little children and women of Iraq. We abort so many children in the USA in one year that our troops would have to stay in Iraq for 1,951 years to suffer the same number of fatalities. Half of these abortions happening for the second time and many happening for the "fifth" time. And what happens, they go nuts with fear that one of these qualified Supreme Court justices will be put on the court that won't legislate from the bench.

~snip~

Democrats are not to be trusted; are dangerous for America; have only their self-serving interest as priority; and has been shown to be weak on defense for decades. We can not let these people get elected to any of our governmental position. It is imperative for our survival and for this great nation's survival to vote them out of office. Do all you can to stop these tramps from getting any power at any level of our government.

http://discussions.pbs.org/viewtopic.pbs?t=51130&highlight=


And this, too:

Anyone know the Democrats plan for America?

Guess what... you are a "liar" if you say you do. They don't even know.

That doesn't make me feel safe to have someone that has been criticizing policy for over a decade without having a plan of their own.

Let's face it, if they had a better plan, they would have said so, last year, the year before, the year before that, the year before that, the year before that, etc.

No plan and a total waste of taxpayers' money to pay these crooked politicians to collect a paycheck and retirement with not a single plan to make it better here in America. They are not ashamed and will stuff that cash in their bank without doing a lick of work. Typical welfare parasites living off government money and not doing a lick of work.

They have been followers for so long there is no way they could lead a country... they can't even follow right now, much less lead.

http://discussions.pbs.org/viewtopic.pbs?t=52683

All compliment of Ted D. Roosevelt, PBS's resident Bushbot. Can you believe there are people out there that think like this?

:puke:

[EstimatedProphet]

16. Unfortunately, yes there are people like Ted D. Roosevelt still

He actually said CARTER held us hostage! CARTER, he is saying, TOOK THE HOSTAGES AND HELD THEM FOR OVER A YEAR!

He's not only stupid, he's an asshole. He should have his vocal cords cut so that no one else has to suffer.

[EFerrari]

18. No, we out number them. They will win because they own

our elections and our media. Or rather, they will lose and their candidates will be seated. :(

[mwb970]

25. Unbelievable.

What a sick, twisted view of reality these excerpts reveal. The people who eat this stuff up are eager, even desperate, to believe the worst about whole groups of their fellow Americans, always without meeting or speaking with the objects of their hate.

It's mindless.

[Ksec]

15. They gather in protected . sheltered forums.

They dont see the reality of things going on because they hang out at places like free republic and listen to Faux and Limbaugh. I say let em live in their alternative World. Let em stay uninformed and ignorant. That suits me just fine. Reality will catch up with them soon enough.

[Golden Raisin]

20. They "won" the last 2 Presidential elections!!!!!!!!!

Do you really think Bush was honestly elected?

[tom_paine]

22. Diebold, the sorry state of the press, and Extreme Gerrymandering

to name just a couple reasons.

They have a right to feel as they do...which is what the Soviet Communists felt in their "election" in 1978.

Brezhnev "won".

[flyarm]

26. voting machines , voting machines, voting machines! the creeps

know they own the voting machines!

fly

[paparush]

27. 'Cause they own the fucking voting machines....

[jukes]

29. because americans are lazy, stupid,

and actually TRY to believe the administration's lies.

do you think the roll-over-&-piddle-themselves democrats are going to save this country if they win?


america has 4 choices:

bush will run for a third term (using the roosevelt "war president" as an example) and subsequently declare himself "dictator for life".

the iranian "euro" bourse will drive america into an irreversible depression.

we'll invade iran and their allies will beat us into a series of warring "city states" or totally destroy us.

the US public will wake up and throw this illegal administration out of office.


#4 is SO far from reality that it is not a real possibility. by the time things get so bad that americans are prepared to revolt, it will be too late due to #s 1-3.

[ShortnFiery]

30. The Republicans own the Media and Control the Message ...

Add a little Diebold action on the side and you've got VICTORY.

The whorish corporate media will frame issues any ole' way Uncle Karl wants. :P

Unless the sheeple wake up and actually "give a damn" we're in for conservative rule for a long long time. Operation Mindcrime? You bet. :grr:

[yellowcanine]

31. They are delusional and stupid but that doesn't mean we win in November.

The trouble with generic ballot polls is that they measure national trends but congressional elections are local elections. So unless the Democrats can successfully "nationalize" the election and create a "wave" effect, we could still fail to capture the House and Senate. In spite of all of the difficulties Bush is having, Democrats still have not figured out a way to translate that discontent with Bush into discontent with local congress critters. One way would be to attempt to introduce an impeachment or censure resolution.