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Peru Exit poll results so far.

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Finder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:18 PM
Original message
Peru Exit poll results so far.
Exit polls by Apoyo for America Television and channel N:

Ollanta Humala 29.6%
Alan Garcia 24.5%
Lourdes Flores 24.2%
Martha Chavez 6.95
Valenting Paniaugua 6.5%
Humberto Lay 4.1%

Exit polls for Frecuencia Latina:

Ollanta Humala 29.2%
Alan Garcia 24.2%
Lourdes Flores 24.1%

Exit Poll by POP for ATV:

Ollanta Humala 30%
Alan García 25%
Lourdes Flores 25%
Valentín Paniagua 7%
Martha Chávez 6%
Otros 8%

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ken_g Donating Member (249 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:24 PM
Response to Original message
1. Can somebody give some context to these numbers and
candidates? I'm interested in South American politics, but I'm afraid I'm a little ignorant about this one.
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sasha031 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. here is some info
Edited on Sun Apr-09-06 04:32 PM by sasha031
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ken_g Donating Member (249 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:42 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Thanks for the links!
Don't know why I didn't just google the damn thing. :shrug:
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RUMMYisFROSTED Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:27 PM
Response to Original message
2. Exit polls within 1% of each other.
We need to catapult the propaganda better.
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stepnw1f Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 04:46 PM
Response to Original message
5. Go Humala, Go!!!
South America is looking pretty good these days!
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bluestateguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
6. Who is the Lefty and who is the Righty?
nt
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Finder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:15 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Humala and Garcia=Left, Lourdes=Right
Garcia is a former prez and is not too popular with the upper classes who lost tons of money back in the 80s. Humala is the one Chavez gave a thumbs up to. He is the military guy.

Lourdes is a former congresswoman and is a single mother but she is center right (christian democrat)and is who our administration and the upper classes support.
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eleny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:21 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. If Humala wins the election...
Does this mean that all but two countries in South America will have left leaning leadership? Right now, it's three countries that are rght wing - Columbia, Ecuador and one other (I think Peru). Can you help me out with this, I'm fuzzy.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #8
15. No...
Paraguay has a right winger too, as well as Colombia as you said. Ecuador currently has a temporary President who seems to be moderate lame duck.

Humala certainly leans left on economic issues, but his civil liberties record is not very clear. He seems to be a little too authoritarian for me, and I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up not governing like a left winger, similar to Lucio Gutiérrez in Ecuador.
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eleny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. thank you, arcos!
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 06:01 PM
Response to Reply #7
13. Garcia is not left...
He's supposedly a social democrat, after all, APRA is a member of the Socialist International. However, his government was not very social democrat... the upper classes lost a ton of money but the poor got even more poor because he was a TERRIBLE and highly corrupt President. Not as bad as Fujimori, but close.
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arcos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 06:03 PM
Response to Reply #6
14. Humala is an authoritarian left winger, Flores is a right winger...
I don't like Humala much, although he is supported by Chávez he seems to be much more authoritarian than anyone else in the region.

Lourdes Flores is your typical Latin American right winger.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:24 PM
Response to Original message
9. Ollanta Humala is who were are rooting for. He is an indigenous Indian
allied with Evo Morales in neighboring Bolivia, and Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, and is most in tune with other leftist democrats around Latin America, who have been swept into power over the last several years in this amazing peaceful, democratic, leftist revolution throughout Latin America (in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Bolivia, Venezuela and now Peru--virtually the entire continent). (I'm not sure about Paraguay and Ecuador--mentioned in the great Ted Rall article today about Chavez*.)

Garcia is the old pol--associated with corruption. Flores is the corporate candidate. I don't know about the minor candidates.

I also don't know how much Peru's vote the above stats represent--but if it is substantial, then it's looking like a runoff between the old corrupt regime and the new Latin American revolution. Humala needs to get 50%+ to win outright. He's doing very well; the others are not doing as well as expected.

Ted Rall
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ucru/20060406/cm_ucru/panderingtothepoor;_ylt=AqP4MTJnYL1o_RK0MXZd1hD9wxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

Good info site, focus on Venezuela: www.venezuelanalysis.com. (I'll go there and see if they're saying anything.)

-----------

"The time of the people has come." --Evo Morales
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:31 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. No, the venezuelanalysis site doesn't have anything current on Humala and
the Peruvian election.

Finder, do you have a good site where you're getting the stats from--or good analysis/news of Peru or Latin America generally?
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Finder Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. Here is a good one.
http://weblogs.elearning.ubc.ca/peru/

I am getting updates from someone there as well.

These are all exit polls. The actual results will be in about 8pm EST

Voting ended at 4pm.
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High Plains Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
10. This will go to a run-off if no one gets 50% plus one.
Polls last week showed Lourdes defeating Humala in a run-off, 55% to 45%. But Humala was "humentum" on his side. He has come from the margins to win the first round.

He wants to legalize coca growing.

He is indigenista.

He is a nationalist.

He is a populist.

Much in the mode of Chavez and Morales.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-09-06 06:24 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Evo Morales in neighboring Bolivia campaigned with a wreath of coca
leaves around his neck. He's a mountain Indian; parents were coca leaf growers. The coca leaf is a sacred plant in the Andes, essential to survival in the extreme cold and high altitudes. He, too, opposes the murderous U.S. "war on drugs." He doesn't support misuse of drugs or the crime associated with trafficking. He is not in the sway of any cartel (no hint of that). He is pure Indian--views it as a sacred plant, and sees the U.S. "war on drugs" for what it really is--a war on poor peasants and leftists.

Ten thousand Andean Indians came down out of the mountains for a special ceremony to invest Morales, prior to his official inauguration--when he was elected president of Bolivia a few months ago, the first indigenous ever to hold that office. I think what's happening in Latin America has a spiritual aspect to it that we only have the vaguest hints and notions of. Humala is part of it. He, like Chavez, at first took the military coup route to overthrowing bad fascist regimes. Both had a profound change of heart, it seems to me. Chavez's popularity began when he was in prison for participating in a coup attempt. He came out of prison a great hero, and committed to constitutional government, and went on to help write Venezuela's new constitution (which gives indigenous the right to reclaim some of their lands, among other things). They pass out a miniaturized version of their new constitution (a tiny little blue book) to all and sundry in Venezuela. I have a copy of it on my desk (from a friend who attended the recent World Social Forum). It's an ikon to the Venezuelans--the means by which they have begun to right the wrongs of centuries.

So, Humala is in this tradition--indigenous; part of the army, which in Peru, Venezuela and other L/A countries is much more grass roots than we realize (a lot of poor people in the army, means of training and advancement; close to local communities); was tempted by vast injustice to take up arms against it, but chose the peaceful path.

It was of Humala's campaign for president of Peru that Evo Morales recently said: "The time of the people has come."

It is difficult to put labels on these leaders--and on the many leftists who have come to power throughout Latin America. For one thing, it's a great big place. Socialist and leftist don't quite do it. They are creating something new, and it is a complex set of ideas, which does not exclude capitalism (in its less predatory form (business, trade, financing of useful projects), but which includes a large component of reversing injustice, and of throwing off "neo-liberalism" (associated with the US, the IMF, the World Bank, and global corporate predators--who extract resources and labor, and inflict onerous loans with terrible conditions, like ending social programs), establishing self-determination, and regional cooperation, empowerment of the vast poor populations, and bringing to an end the long history of US interference (the worst of which has been death squads against leftists and humanitarians, assassinations of good leaders, and the installation of vicious dictators).

Peaceful revolutionary comes to mind.

When Morales was elected in Bolivia, Chavez presented him with Simon Bolivar's sword. Bolivia is named after Bolivar--the 19th century aristocratic, visionary revolutionary, and freer of the slaves, who liberated several South America countries from Spanish rule. His vision was of a united, and free and independent South America.

The key to THIS revolution, however, is not the sword. It is TRANSPARENT elections. (U.S. voters, take note!)





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