A realistic appraisal of the Iran situation, complete with nuance

[BurtWorm]

Read the whole article to get a fuller picture of what the Bushists are too blind to see for themselves.

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/18935

As the Bush administration sees it, the main "underlying issue" is that Iran's fanatical and unpopular regime is secretly trying to build a bomb with which to threaten Israel and other countries. Only by asserting the possibility of sanctions or preventive war —the "meaningful consequences" to which Dick Cheney has referred—can the US and other influential nations stop this from happening. This reading of the Islamic Republic's position is misleading, however. First, it ascribes to a fractured and secretive state a transparency of intent and an ideological rigidity that it does not have. Second, it absolves the US of any responsibility for Iran's refusal to abandon its ambitions to have a fuel cycle, and of any obligation to use diplomatic means to persuade its leaders to change their mind.<7>

The Iranians' ability to behave with startling pragmatism was first displayed during the Iran-contra scandal of 1986, when they were found to be cooperating with their American enemies to buy arms from Israel, whose right to exist they contested. After the death three years later of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Iranians developed relations with Saudi Arabia, a kingdom that Khomeini himself had loathed. The Iranians also indicated that they would take no action to implement the death sentence that Khomeini had passed on Salman Rushdie. After the attacks on America of September 11, Iran provided valuable support for the US-led invasion of Afghanistan and for the new Afghan government.

Iran's enmity toward Israel is more nuanced than Ahmadinejad's statements suggest. The President's declarations that Israel should be "wiped off the map," and that the Holocaust is a "myth," understandably aroused fears that Iran might be considering an attack on Israel. But Iran's senior civilian and military officials have insisted that Iran will strike Israel only if Israel strikes first.<8> More significantly, the President and supreme leader have both reiterated Iran's longstanding demand for a referendum on the status of Israel that would involve all Palestinian refugees. This official position would not seem to be consistent with an ambition to destroy Israel by force, least of all by using nuclear arms, which would endanger the very Palestinians whom the Iranians claim to be protecting. Several senior Iranian officials, including Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who heads a powerful arbitration council in Tehran, have not disguised their irritation with the President's comments. But Ahmadinejad has benefited from the furor. By raising his prestige among hard-line Islamists around the world, the President has made it harder for his domestic opponents, who include Rafsanjani, to undermine him.

Iran's nuclear crisis centers on the Islamic Republic's ambitions and fears, and these are hard to identify when we consider the largely hidden decision-making process in Iran, where an elected president and parliament are subservient to an unelected supreme leader and other appointed bodies. All are in competition with one another and it is hard to know exactly how decisions are made. Seeking clues, one could do worse than review the deterioration in relations between Iran and the US since early 2002, when Bush included the Islamic Republic in his "axis of evil." At the time, I was told by Iranians connected to the clerical elite that this speech had convinced Iran's leaders that Bush intended to bring down the Islamic Republic. Iranian insecurities were subsequently heightened by the American invasion of Iraq, even though it got rid of one of Iran's worst enemies—and by the US's stated ambition to democratize the Middle East.

[cliss]

1. This is very informative. Thanks for the post.

I have a bit of advice for "itchy trigger finger" George Bush:

Do NOT underestimate the Iranians. They're tough. They've been hardened by adversity. They're enormously rich. They've got unbelievable oil deposits, the world's #1 supply of natural gas. It's an ancient culture, proud people.

There are 68 million people in Iran. It's a diverse, rich culture. The people are not as oppressed as Bush loves to point out. In fact, they are amazingly loyal to their leaders.

Iran is hilly, mountainous. It would be a helluva battle for George if he were insane enough to do it.

Also, Ahmadinejad is to a large extent a figure head. He adores the islamic mullahs. He takes hardly any salary, drives a car that's 30 years old and lives in a ramshackle house. I don't know if he's married.

WAY OVER YOUR HEAD George.

[BurtWorm]

2. "Ahmadinejad is to a large extent a figure head."

I suspect you're right.

[BurtWorm]

3. kick