It's seven minutes to midnight

[cynatnite]

Chicago, February 27, 2002: Today, the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the minute hand of the "Doomsday Clock," the symbol of nuclear danger, from nine to seven minutes to midnight, the same setting at which the clock debuted 55 years ago. Since the end of the Cold War in 1991, this is the third time the hand has moved forward.

snip:
Meanwhile, the U.S. national weapons laboratories, with the support of some in Congress, are hard at work refining existing warheads and designing entirely new weapons, with a special emphasis on those able to attack and destroy hardened and deeply buried targets. And to ensure that such new designs can be tested, the U.S. administration seeks to shorten the time required to resume testing to as little as twelve months--a move that can only encourage other countries, including India, Pakistan, and China, to consider resuming testing. Although the United States has not conducted a full-scale test since 1992--and the administration says it has no plans to resume testing at this time--it refuses to recognize the overwhelming international support for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and refuses to participate in international meetings to discuss implementing the treaty. Should the required signatories, including India and Pakistan, fail to ratify the CTBT, thus jeopardizing its entry into force, the world will lose an essential tool in halting the further development and spread of nuclear weapons.

snip:
The U.S. administration's decision to withdraw from the ABM Treaty is a matter of great concern. The administration's rationale--that the treaty is a relic that endangers U.S. security interests--is disingenuous. Regrettably, the United States was unwilling to consider any compromise that would have preserved the basic framework of the treaty, and therefore blocked pursuit of a compromise that would have allowed additional testing but maintained some limits on defenses. Abandoning the treaty will have serious repercussions for years to come.

snip:
When resetting the clock we have often noted that the growing disparities between rich and poor increase the potential for violence and war. Poverty and repression breed anger and desperation. Charismatic leaders with easy answers prey on the dispossessed and disaffected, channeling their anger into dangerous and destructive activities. The global community must recognize these facts and do much more to address them. The success of the war on terrorism depends not only on disrupting and destroying terrorist organizations, but also on eradicating the conditions that give rise to terror.

http://www.thebulletin.org/doomsday_clock/current_time.htm

[magellan]

1. It's later than we think

They haven't updated since 2002. I wonder what they'd set it to now?

[Hong Kong Cavalier]

2. To think, in 1991, we were at SEVENTEEN minutes to midnight.

Now...



:scared:

[longship]

3. The Bulletin does not respond to political whims.

Almost exclusively they look at the big picture. Saber rattling, like ChimpCo is exercising now with Iran doesn't seem to be the type of thing that sways the board of the Bulletin. Rather, they would likely be more concerned if Iran had built a huge refining factory which could conceivably handle weapons-grade stuff. But with this minimal nuclear effort, only a couple hundred centrifuges, it would barely be on the Bulletin's radar.

In other words, there's no indication that Iran is building a nuke weapon. Just because ChimpCo says they are means nothing.

Understand, the multi-thousand centrifuge refining plant which would be absolutely required to build an A-bomb is not something that can be hidden.

[RaleighNCDUer]

4. OTOH, Chimpy is dead set on developing new, small

bunker-buster bombs -- that should move things up a click or two.

[longship]

7. True, but again, that's just one element of a bigger picture.

Some place on the Bulletin Web site they explain their philosophy on moving the clock. They don't want anybody to be able to say that the clock is a political device. They are very reticent about moving the clock at all, and least of all when political events would be tempted to indicate otherwise.

Now, I would think that the clock might be due to move some time soon, as there have been some worrisome events. However, these are mitigated by an overall peaceful co-exitance amongst the nuclear powers of the world, esp US, Russia, and China. Even India and Pakistan seem to have adopted a non-bellicose stance. If I were a board member I'm not sure if I'd move the hands of the clock at this time.

[RaleighNCDUer]

14. But how do you balance in the Chimperor being insane? nt

[longship]

15. The Bulletin does not change the clock on political whims.

Stating that the Chimperor is insane is a political statement, not necessarily a fact. (Even though it might be true.)

The people on the board of the Bulletin are scientists, not politicians. Their criteria are not political. They didn't even move the clock in response to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

[RaleighNCDUer]

16. I would hardly call it a political whim.

It isn't that the evil republicans have taken power. It isn't that there is a ramping up of aggressive talk in an election year. That is, as you say, political whims.

The leader of the nation that has the most nukes has promulgated, and acted on, a policy of preemptive war, is developing a new type of nuke for a new purpose, and his administration is feeding the public with rumors of nuclear strikes to neutralize a trumped up danger. Worse yet, upon hearing the rumors the citizens are not taking to the streets to protest. We are either favoring, accepting or expecting it.

If that isn't the criteria they are using, then they are going to be taken by surprise.

I have never been more worried about a nuclear conflict since my first 'duck and cover' drill. Even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when I was stationed with my dad on a base in Germany, it wasn't nukes I was worried about but columns of soviet armor pouring across the border.

ON EDIT: From looking at your previous posts here, it looks like there is an assumption that the clock is based on foreign dangers to us. Everybody but us has toned down their rhetoric, so there is no change. My assumption is that WE are the aggressors, and what the rest of the world does doesn't particularly matter. Nobody is going to attack us - it would be national suicide. But the same does not apply going the other way. The only time the bomb has been used was against an opponant who could not strike back in the same manner.

[longship]

19. I suggest that you write to the editors of "The Bulletin"

I'm sure that they would welcome your input. I wrote them once, and they even published my letter. So, they seem to be open to new ideas. However, they responded to my letter by stating their clock policy which they've used basically unchanged since 1947.

When you look at the Doomsday Clock Timeline you'll see the kind of events which have influenced the clock. Unless it's some single event which dramatically changes the threat level, like 1953 when both USSR and USA tested thermonuclear weapons, or 1991 when the USSR and USA signed START, the clock only moved as a result of multiple influences which collectively changed the worldwide threat of nuclear war.

I'll reiterate that the clock was not moved in response to the most dangerous event of the 20th century, the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Bulletin's board of directors just doesn't act on events at that scale. It might not be perfect, but that's the system they've adopted.

But, by all means, write the editors and make your opinion known.

[Swamp Rat]

6. They might move it up a minute or two.

[terrya]

5. Weren't we at 5 minutes to midnight during the Cuban Missle Crisis?

Jesus, this is scary as hell. I can understand the Directors of Atomic Scientists doing this...we're so close to nuclear danger...and I'm glad that pointed out our withdrawl from the ABM treaty. This Administration is dangerously reckless in our committment to limiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons around the world.

[longship]

13. No, we were at seven minutes to mdnight throughout 1962

The clock didn't even move during 1962. When it finally moved in 1963, it moved *back* to twelve minutes.

As I posted above. The Clock does not respond to individual events, but to the overall picture. The closest to midnight it ever was was between 1953 and 1960 when it was two minutes to midnight. Those were the first days of thermonuclear capabilities. If you read the Doomsday Clock Timeline you'll get the idea of the rationale for the clock hands moving.

[Strawman]

8. Is Chimpy coming out to Iron Maiden at all his public appearances now?

Two Minutes to Midnight?

[bmcatt]

9. Um... 4 years ago?

Not to throw a damper on this, but please note the date on the change - Feb 27, 2002. If they change it *now* and move it forward, I'll be worried(-er).

Then again, I think that 7 minutes is too far back and we're probably much closer to midnight than that. :cry:

[cynatnite]

10. Looking at how rarely they do move the clock...

I don't think rhetoric at this point is likely to do it. Now, if there was a confrontation between the US and Iran, very possible they might move it...especially if Russia and Chine throws in some of their weight behind Iran.

I think this clock is something we all should keep an eye on.

[bmcatt]

11. Agreed - keep an eye on it

I was just trying to point out that, contrary to what other responders seem to be indicating, this wasn't a "recent" (as in within the last month / year) change. Yes, it happened during this administration, but it wasn't fueled by anything that's currently happening.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

12. Well I'd get the fallout shelter

ready but I don't have a basement.


This really sucks.

[paparush]

18. Start digging a hole in the backyard...you need about 3' of earth

covering...the more the better...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

17. "...but also on eradicating the conditions that give rise to terror." eom