Did DUKE CUNNINGHAM'S Seat go DEM last night?

[matcom]

:wow: this was a HUGE GOP district wasn't it?

http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.xml

[AussieDave]

1. No - there will be a runoff in June

Francine Busby (D) vs Brian Bilbray (R)

[marmar]

2. Last night?

The Dem finished first, but there's going to be a runoff election because she didn't get the 50%. It looks pretty good, though.

[napi21]

3. Not quite. Busby needed 50%+ to win outright. Now there'll be

a runoff election to pick the winner.

[matcom]

4. what are the chances out there?

i'm not familiar

[acmejack]

5. Busby Finishes Under 50% in CA 50

Last night Democratic candidate Francine Busby failed to reach the 50% + 1 mark in her quest to take the seat formerly held by Republican Duke Cunningham. She finished in the low- to mid-40's.

Judging by the early reports on the election, the media is going to spin this as a good development for the Democrats in their quest to take the House. I could not disagree more.

The election will go to a June runoff, but this seems to me to have been the Democrats' only real chance at this seat. GOP candidates pulled in a majority of the vote -- and it is hard to imagine that not happening in June.

The Democrats had everything going for them in this election. They had a corrupt felon-incumbent, they had low turnout, they had a well-financed challenger, and they had a divided Republican field. They had a district that has, in the last 10 years, skewed Republican less and less. And they only managed to get about 8% more of the vote when they needed 14% more. In 2004, Busby pulled in 36%. This time around she won 43.9%.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/realclearpolitics/20060412/cm_rcp/busby_finishes_under_50_in_ca;_ylt=A86.I2dx8zxELjMAJB_9wxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHVqMTQ4BHNlYwN5bnN1YmNhdA--

[ozymandius]

6. Good news matcom.

The Republican losers are bickering. There's resistance among the runners-up to endorse Bilbray.

[NV Whino]

7. The real problem here,

as mentioned in a thread a couple of days ago, is the Dem Party supporting her. The feeling seems to be that she doesn't stand a good chance in a highly Republican district, therefore they don't want to waste resources on her.

[ruggerson]

8. A logic that escapes me

if you add in Young's votes, Francine reaches 45. So she only has to pick off 5% from the Republicans to win. And Bilbray is not a consensue candidate by any means. He's also a perfect poster boy for why you don't want a revolving door between lobbyists and congresspeople, an issue at the core of Francine's campaign.

[NV Whino]

9. Me too.

It's people such as Francine that we should be supporting.

[lakeguy]

15. she doesn't really need any more votes at all, does she?

assuming some who voted in the primary will sit out because their non-Busby choice isn't on the ballot. Busby just needs to hold the votes she got and i would think she would win because her percentage of total votes will increase.

[sandnsea]

11. Funny, she's on the DCCC home page

Mark Warner and John Kerry both did fundraisers for her.

Don't know where you're getting your info from, doesn't seem to match reality.

[NV Whino]

12. Check this out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=2567388

[0007]

13. Awesome!

[sandnsea]

17. Adam Nagourney

Just who I turn to when I want the nitty-gritty on the Dem Party. :eyes:

[Bozita]

10. BigBearJohn said the saturation swiftboating of Busby has begun

Here's his thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=935477

BigBearJohn (1000+ posts)  Fri Apr-14-06 10:25 PM
Original message
Repukes are running attack ads every 15 mins slinging mud at FrancineBusby
So far, I haven't heard any pro-Busby ads (I live in San Diego).
It's amazing. Every other commercial is swift boating Busby.
Sickening. I sure hope she has the money to counter these
ads.

[leanin_green]

14. Perhaps her showing is just an indication of the growing

discontent over the established two-party monopoly. Maybe people are beginning to wonder if even the current crop of Dems is a real solution? Just a thought and not intended to be a discourse over Democratic Party viability.

[maveric]

16. Bilbray is a moderate repub and somewhat of an environmentalist.

He's a surfer and has been active in the "clean ocean" agenda. He was mayor of Imperial Beach for years, then went on to the House, from the South Bay.
That area got very blue, so he moved to red N.County. He's very popular in SD county and Busby will have her work cut out for her.