New Survey USA 100 Senators Poll

[AGENDA21]

* Ben Nelson is the most approved of Senator in the nation, at 73-19. No one has ever lost, or even been close to losing, re-election with a net approval of 54%. I don't care if this is Nebraska--the guy is deeply loved and he is only going up. So, I'm taking that one off the board.

* Lieberman's approval among Democrats is down to 54-41, pushing him close to real vulnerability in the primary. His approval among Republicans is 70-24. No wonder he is threatening to leave the party.

* Santorum's approval rating is 39-53, the worst in the nation. These numbers are almost precisely what he is losing by in most polls. Also, Santorum only has a 58% approval rating among Republicans. His base isn't exactly fired up for him. I know there are a lot of people online who are clinging to the belief that Casey is somehow going to lose this thing because he is too conservative, but frankly I think these people are letting their ideological outlook cloud their election analysis. The person who received the most votes in the history of a state is not going to lose to an incumbent with a 39% approval rating. Not. Gonna. Happen. But please, tell me more theories on why the most popular person in the state is going to lose to the least popular person in the state. I find these theories intriguing and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

* More endangered and potentially Republican incumbents include Burns (39-52), Kyl (45-42), Talent (48-43), DeWine (48-41) Allen (48-39), Ensign (49-36), and Chafee (52-39).

* Endangered and potentially endangered Democrats include Stabenow (45-43), Cantwell (48-41), Bill Nelson (48-33) and the already mentioned Lieberman.

* Democrats dominate the top 15, with ten. Republicans only have four of the top fifteen. Republicans also have sixteen of the bottom twenty-three.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/4/20/17729/1588

APPROVAL RATINGS FOR ALL 100 U.S. SENATORS AS OF 04/20/06
http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2006/060420100USSenatorNet.htm

[WI_DEM]

1. A new poll from Florida out today by Quinnipiac has Bill Nelson up

by 29-points over Cruella. If she's his opponent he won't be vulnerable. The thing which might save Lieberman in the primary is Independents.

[jsamuel]

2. do independents tend to go out to Dem primaries to vote for an incumbent?

[WI_DEM]

4. Independents usually (unless CT has a law prohibiting it) can choose

which primary they want to vote in. If they like Lieberman's "independence" they might decide to vote in the Democratic primary, especially if it's the only one with a real contest, rather than in a republican primary. But those numbers are something else--Lieberman is very strong with Republicans and much less strong with both Indies and Dems.

[Selatius]

3. Casey will win because he isn't Santorum

Casey has the greatest name recognition outside Santorum, so people would naturally flock towards him and away from Santorum. Is he the best qualified? Nah, I'd say that title belongs more to Pennacchio, but he hasn't the name recognition at all with voters, so he stands to lose.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

5. NUMBER 100!!! That's right, Ricky, you are now officially dead last!

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl: