Republican odds. Nine contenders, some you’ve never heard of

[Ian David]

Run time: 03:56 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCu7gQ.swf   Posted on YouTube: April 17, 2015 By YouTube Member: YouTube Help Views on YouTube: 12180171   Posted on DU: March 08, 2007 By DU Member: Ian David Views on DU: 533

 
VIDEO: Giuliani's latest from YouTube's "YouChoose '08" channel

With all the press coverage of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and, well, Hillary Clinton, you’d think we have a one-party political system heading into next fall’s presidential election. As the astute columnist David Shribman reminded us recently, however, the Republicans are still planning to nominate a candidate in 2008, and given the historical trends of presidential politics, that GOP nominee has a very good chance of being the next president.

Three points are worth noting as we set the odds for the Republicans. First, in the modern era, the GOP has always nominated the candidate who is leading the polls a year before the first primary vote is cast. This is not a party that likes to give its nomination to renegades. In the past two months or so, Rudy Giuliani has opened up a lead among Republican hopefuls, indicating for now that those who say he is too liberal to win the GOP nomination have political precedent to deal with.

Second, no matter who ends up in the field, the Republicans will be without two of their potentially stronger candidates. California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger surely would have run — and done well — but he is prevented by the Constitution from seeking the presidency because of his foreign birth. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush could have been the answer to the Republican right wing’s prayers. A good little-brother, though, Jeb let his older sibling (George II, a/k/a, “The Blunderer”) take his crack at the White House first, proving why primogeniture is such a bad idea when it comes to presidential politics. The younger, wiser Bush has once again decided to sit this one out, and might now be wondering if playing the good brother then has ruined his own presidential aspirations, now and forever.

Finally, despite most press coverage, it’s worth remembering that the majority of Republican primary voters still think George W. Bush is doing a good job and that the Iraq War, though flawed, was a good idea. Senator Chuck Hagel may be an interesting critic of the Bush administration and a favorite of the press, but those are two negatives — not positives — in this party.

More:
http://www.thephoenix.com/article_ektid35133.aspx

[saltpoint]

1. Thank Jesus the Constitution disallows Arnold Schwarzenegger from

seeking the presidency. I could do without him.

Jeb Bush seems viable to some Republicans but vile to us. His family has visited unprecedented corruption, greed, and incompetence on the people's office, and while I might favor forced sterilization of the Bush family tree from this point forward, I'll settle for Jeb's not running for higher office.

Hagel sounds halfway sentient on Iraq, but only because the rest of his party sounds stark raving mad, and on all other issues, Hagel is almost a Scalia conservative.

Here's to 2008 being an extremely blue year. Go, Democrats.