BBC Horizon: Global Dimming - "a film that demands action"

[Turborama]

Run time: 09:59 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkJUJ5-PL-0   Posted on YouTube: May 22, 2007 By YouTube Member: Views on YouTube: 0   Posted on DU: February 12, 2009 By DU Member: Turborama Views on DU: 3489

 
- I thoroughly recommend getting the torrent (link below) as the picture and sound quality are excellent -

Global Dimming This may be the one of the most important Horizon films of recent years. Climate scientists have just discovered a phenomenon that threatens to disrupt our world. It may already have contributed to the deaths of hundreds of thousands through drought and famine. Unchecked, it will strike again. The good news is that there is a cure. The bad news is that the cure may be worse than the disease.

If they are right, then in tackling the one problem, we may unleash a climate catastrophe on our planet. This is a film about stark choices and about the dawning realisation that all our predictions about the world's climate may be completely wrong. At its heart is something that scientists are calling "global dimming".


Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsDNmDyPLDk

Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZC4PR24BIc8

Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37SAFkvz6uY

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Full Google Video Version:
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2058273530743771382

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Well Seeded Torrent (V.good quality picture and sound): http://www.mininova.org/tor/635157

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml">Horizon producer David Sington on why predictions about the Earth's climate will need to be re-examined

-

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml"> Programme Transcript

[Poll_Blind]

1. This is absolutely fascinating to watch and something very few know about.

I watched this a few years ago and it scared the hell out of me.

It still scares the hell out of me.

PB

[ihavenobias]

2. K & R. For the lazy and or time-constrained, is there ONE part you insist everyone watch? n/t

[Turborama]

3. I would have to say, at the very least, the 1st 25 minutes

and watch the rest later, if people don't have time to watch the whole thing now...

The torrent is well worth getting in that respect, as well as being excellent quality A/V you can watch it at your leisure.

Thanks for the Recs, guys.

[Turborama]

10. On revision, I'd say that the last 3 1/2 minutes of part two and all of part 3 is the ONE segment

that has to be seen to be believed...

This adds up to roughly 12 minutes which is about the same as a Keith Olbermann piece. ;-)

[Turborama]

11. Or, 17 to 35 minutes if you've downloaded the DVD quality torrent...

(I think when you get to 35 minutes you won't want to stop watching, though)

[SlicerDicer-]

4. Alright so here goes my post.

So be sure to check out the discussion here as we are taking a different topic and it is a good idea to break it up. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x269841

Now on with the show :)

First off I noticed that they mentioned global dimming. Yes I have heard of this and there are many things to be concerned about. However the discussion took interesting twists and turns when it talked about water evaporation.

The part that bothered me most about it is they started talking about various places the sunlight had dropped. They mentioned Antarctica I found this rather interesting, later in the discussion they talked about the Maldives.. Pristine air coming from the antarctic... Now I find something awful fishy here.. Disturbing about the facts they layed at hand. First off the Antarctic changes are considered to be drastic in terms of recording any particulates as shown in ice cores. Why if this is the case would the air coming from there be clean? Its not like 100% of it drops there so this is a serious question that should be answered. And then follow that up with the monsoonal drought. Here in the USA southwest we have a Monsoon I do not know how many of you are aware. However partially involved in the dust bowl was the failure of the monsoon here where I live! And then couple that with the tree ring cores that showed 60 years! yes SIXTY! of drought has occurred in the past across the great plains and rocky mountains. Add history together sure its localized but if you look at observed past you must couple observed future and think maybe its similar weather patterns? And not to mention since the start of the holocene Saharan Africa has been getting dryer.

What I find even more disturbing about the whole video. As many know the oceans contain latent heat. This latent heat can be there for decades and take a good long while to cool. This can "prolong" warming and cause cooling to not occur. Basic reasoning makes me even more afraid after watching this that the climate may be heading out of the holocene.. I have been afraid this is occurring for quite a while now. What is further disturbing about this is in order for these particulates to make a difference in all my learning's (see volcanoes) that it must be in the stratosphere. So this does not mesh well with me. However clouds boosted can cause change in albedo and lead to cooling planet.. But you would think there would be MASSIVE localized cooling in areas that experience sub stratosphere eruptions.

I must have more data to show where I am wrong on this.. I will do some digging and look if there is some interesting information that answers my questions.. As watching this it makes me even more perplexed and more worried about what is occurring that they dont have a damn clue of what is occurring. I know they likely mean well and all.....

Anybody got any insight here? (I would post more but my hands hurt.. getting us to a new keyboard I just got.)

[Turborama]

15. Regarding the Maldives question...

"Why if this is the case would the air coming from there be clean?"

The south of the Maldives is clean in comparison to the north where it's the air coming down from India is full of particles...

From the transcript:

"The Maldives were the perfect place to find out. The Maldives seem unpolluted, but in fact the northern islands sit in a stream of dirty air descending from India. Only the southern tip of the long island chain enjoys clean air coming all the way from Antarctica. So by comparing the northern islands with the southern ones, Ramanathan and his colleagues would be able to see exactly what difference the pollution made to the atmosphere and the sunlight. Project INDOEX, as it was called, was a huge multinational effort. For four years every possible technique was used to sample and monitor the atmosphere over the Maldives. INDOEX cost twenty-five million dollars, but it produced results - and they surprised everyone."

Re monsoons:

I have been living on the equator for the past 4 years and the monsoons are getting progressively worse since I've been here. People who have lived here all there lives are saying that they have never seen flooding like we've been experiencing in the wet seasons...

BTW since that documentary was made, England had http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/europe/07/23/britain.floods/index.html">the worst flooding in 60 years.

[SlicerDicer-]

23. I would just like to note..

On the Maldives that makes sense.

As I said above the southwest where I live has evidence of 60 year droughts in tree ring cores.

Thats equal to the time period of floods in UK as well as long as most people live "roughly"

Lifetimes mean nothing in geologic terms. And if the southwest is this vulnerable to drought what stops many other parts from prolonged floods or drought or other extreme weather. Just sayin.


Note as well, Dr. Richard Alley who does ice core studies.. He has seen in the ice cores climate flip in 10 years from hot to cold. Its pretty damn violent when it does.. There is no causal that I can see for it that has been stated that is clean and fits the bill. CO2 was flat across most of this. So that should be even more concerning.

[Gregorian]

5. I can't believe what I have just heard. I'm still sitting here in shock.

I'm not posting about the subject in general, but about what I've just seen in the first three minutes.

I have spent years raving at jet aircraft in a state of rage that rivals insanity. I'm angry because I studied "jet" engines in my spare time at school. And I have been convinced for decades that the effects they have on our environment are HUGE. In one minute, roughly the same amount of air that is contained in a typical home goes through one of these engines. And what would be a clear day becomes one with a veil of water moisture that spreads diffusely over very large areas of our skies.

Well, now I'm finally seeing that others are noticing the same thing.

For years I've cursed people who fly around the globe to do their happy traveling. I would love to travel, but I see something that I fear is highly problematic. So something as seemingly negative as being angry at frequent fliers has more to it than just a bit of anger over tourism.

Finally, I'm getting so support. I almost feel like apologizing for blabbing on the forum before watching the rest of the film. But I've corresponded with a scientist on global dimming several years ago, so I have a sense of what it's about.

And now maybe people will understand something else that seems horrible about me. This economic downturn, to me, is a huge relief. For the planet. Not for people. So it's a horrible thing to admit. But either we stop doing what we're doing, or I don't want to think of the suffering that appears to be down the road. If it takes an economic downturn then so be it. It's the same reason I flip out over someone who has octuplets. To most people this just seems like irrational behavior. It isn't.

[SlicerDicer-]

6. Well its not too shocking that they do that

Jet engines are glutton of waste. If you actually looked into a turbo prop vs jet you would see major performance differences. However! Fuel use is a massive difference.

I say back to turbo props and to hell with the stupid travel nonsense.. Half the people flying should stay home and not extend their credit to oblivion and many other things.

[Gregorian]

8. Yeah, turboprops have a maximum velocity.

And jets just throw fuel particulates out the rear at high speeds. Propellers start to look like flat plates at a certain speed. I loved turbo machinery. I had one of the first turbocharged cars back in the 70's. I had to engineer and build it. But I have since learned to hate much of it all.

Like the video explains, when we generate energy, we pollute. In other words, when we veer away from nature, we pollute.

With good leadership, the people will begin to wake up to the facts. We must change now. Bush did more damage than most people realize. Iraq was not the worst thing he did. Keeping us in the dark and not joining in with the rest of the world's scientists may cause more damage to the human race in the long run.

[SlicerDicer-]

9. point blank if you want it to stop

Everybody must stop.. at least that is the only way I see this coming to a end with my own concerns.

But going to less excess waste would be better and that is why I said turbo props :)

[Turborama]

14. There is some light at the end of the tunnel (hopefully)

The key point with regards to the problem that's being discussed in this documentary is the pollution that consists of particles, such as soot, that turn clouds into mirrors - the film itself describes it better than I can...

17 minutes into the stand alone torrent version & the last quarter of part 2 of the Youtube version

NARRATOR: Ramanathan was certain of one thing, the big drop in sunlight reaching the ground had to be something to do with changes in the Earth's atmosphere. There was one obvious suspect.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: Almost everything we do to create energy causes pollution.

NARRATOR: Burning fuel doesn't just produce the invisible greenhouse gases which cause global warming. It also produces visible pollution, tiny airborne particles of soot and other pollutants. These produce the haze which shrouds our cities. So Ramanathan wondered: Could this pollution be causing Global Dimming? The Maldives were the perfect place to find out. The Maldives seem unpolluted, but in fact the northern islands sit in a stream of dirty air descending from India. Only the southern tip of the long island chain enjoys clean air coming all the way from Antarctica. So by comparing the northern islands with the southern ones, Ramanathan and his colleagues would be able to see exactly what difference the pollution made to the atmosphere and the sunlight. Project INDOEX, as it was called, was a huge multinational effort. For four years every possible technique was used to sample and monitor the atmosphere over the Maldives. INDOEX cost twenty-five million dollars, but it produced results - and they surprised everyone.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: The stunning part of the experiment was this pollutant layer which was three kilometre thick, cut down the sunlight reaching the ocean by more than 10%.

NARRATOR: A 10% fall in sunlight meant that particle pollution was having a far bigger effect than anyone had thought possible.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: Our models led us to believe the human impact on the dimming was close to half to one per cent. So what we discovered was tenfold.

NARRATOR: INDOEX showed that the pollution particles were blocking some sunlight themselves; but far more significant was what they were doing to the clouds. They were turning them into giant mirrors. Clouds are made of droplets of water. These only form when water vapour in the atmosphere starts to condense on the surface of naturally occurring airborne particles, typically pollen or sea salt. As they grow, the water droplets eventually become so heavy they fall as rain. But Ramanathan found that polluted air contained far more particles than the unpolluted air, particles of ash, soot and sulphur dioxide.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: We saw ten times more particles in the polluted air mass north of the Maldives compared with what we saw south of the Maldives which was a pristine air mass.

NARRATOR: In the polluted air billions of man-made particles provided ten times as many sites around which water droplets could form. So polluted clouds contained many more water droplets, each one far smaller than it would be naturally. Many small droplets reflect more light than fewer big ones. So the polluted clouds were reflecting more light back into space, preventing the heat of the sun getting through. This was the cause of Global Dimming.

PROF VEERABHADRAN RAMANATHAN: Basically the Global Dimming we saw in the North Indian Ocean, it was contributed on the one hand by the particles themselves shielding the ocean from the sunlight, on the other hand making the clouds brighter. So this insidious soup, consisting of soot, sulphates, nitrates, ash and what have you, was having a double whammy on the Global Dimming.

Transcript: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml

But, and this is a big BUT, do these new generation biofuels that are being looked at seriously by the airline companies (as can be seen here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x267281"> Air New Zealand - Jatropha Biofuel Test Flight (is this the "Holy Grail" of biofuel?)) emit the same kind of particles when they are burnt? If they don't, they need to step up the production of these new generation biofuels immediately, there's no time to waste...

[MedioGringo]

7. Don't freak out too much

Seems that the trend of global dimming has been reversing since 1990. This trend reversal corresponds to the reduction of aerosols in the atmosphere. It appears global dimming helped to mask the global warming that was taking place by artificially cooling the earth. However, this might be very positive. If dimming masked global warming, and the reduction of aerosol particulates in the atmosphere reduced global dimming, then is it possible that the rate of global warming was exaggerated by the reduction in dimming? In other words, it only seems as though global warming is increasing at such a rapid pace because we have also been inadvertently warming the earth by reducing aerosol use and thus reducing dimming. Or maybe I'm just being an armchair climatologist.

Here's a link to the Wikipedia entry on dimming:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming#Recent_reversal_of_the_trend

[Turborama]

12. "This is the real sting in the tail" (36 minutes 30 seconds in on the torrent version...)

or, 2nd half of part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37SAFkvz6uY and all of part 5: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyVOvRm45-I


DR DAVID TRAVIS: The nine eleven study showed that if you remove a contributor to Global Dimming, jet contrails, just for a three day period, we see an immediate response of the surface of temperature. Do the same thing globally we might see a large scale increase in global warming.

NARRATOR: This is the real sting in the tail. Solve the problem of Global Dimming and the world could get considerably hotter. And this is not just theory, it may already be happening. In Western Europe the steps we have taken to cut air pollution have started to bear fruit in a noticeable improvement in air quality and even a slight reduction in Global Dimming over the last few years. Yet at the same time, after decades in which they held steady, European temperatures have started rapidly to rise culminating in the savage summer of 2003.

Forest fires devastated Portugal. Glaciers melted in the Alps. And in France people died by the thousand. Could this be the penalty of reducing Global Dimming without tackling the root cause of global warming?

DR BEATE LIEPERT: We thought we live in a global warming world, um but this is actually er not right. We lived in a global warming plus a Global Dimming world, and now we are taking out Global Dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be, much hotter.

NARRATOR: This is the crux of the problem. While the greenhouse effect has been warming the planet, it now seems Global Dimming has been cooling it down. So the warming caused by carbon dioxide has been hidden from us by the cooling from air pollution. But that situation is now starting to change.

DR PETER COX (Hadley Centre, Met Office): We're gonna be in a situation unless we act where the cooling pollutant is dropping off while the warming pollutant is going up, CO2 will be going up and particles will be dropping off and that means we'll get an accelerated warming. We'll get a double whammy, we'll get, we'll get reducing cooling and increased heating at the same time and that's, that's a problem for us.

NARRATOR: And that's not all. Climatologists like Peter Cox have begun to worry that Global Dimming has led them to underestimate the true power of global warming. They fear that the Earth could be far more vulnerable to greenhouse gases than they had previously thought.

DR PETER COX: We've got two competing effects really, that we've got the greenhouse effect, which has tended to warm up the climate. But then we've got this other effect that's much stronger than we thought, which is a cooling effect that comes from particles in the atmosphere. And they're competing with one another. And we know the climate's moved to a warmer state by about point six of a degree over the last hundred years. So the whole thing's moved this way. If it turns out that the cooling is stronger than we thought then the warming also is a lot stronger than we thought, and that means the climate's more sensitive to carbon dioxide than we originally thought, and it means our models may be under sensitive to carbon dioxide.

NARRATOR: The models that everyone has been using to forecast climate change predict a maximum warming of 5 degrees by the end of the century. But Cox and his colleagues now fear those models may be wrong. Temperatures could rise twice as fast as they previously thought with irreversible damage just twenty-five years away.

Continued on the transcript: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_trans.shtml

[Turborama]

13. I've found part 5 of the Youtube version...

Couldn't find it yesterday but here it is...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CyVOvRm45-I

[Gregorian]

16. This entire documentary should be mandatory viewing. CRUCIAL.

I watched all five parts the other day. And I have to apologize, as I did not do this thread justice. But then neither has the forum. This subject puts the economic stimulus package to absolute shame, in comparison. Hard to believe it. But it's true.

Our exhaust pipes may have killed a million Africans. I think they left out the "may have" in the documentary. I don't think there is any doubt as to what has happened now.

I wish this were the topic at the top of the Greatest page.

[Turborama]

17. I agree 100%...

...for no other reason than it needs to be seen by as many people as possible, as quickly as possible.

I guess it's my fault, I wish I had come up with a more attention grabbing title and description.

[CLANG]

19. Part 5 was where my stomach started hurting

As if the first 4 parts weren't bad enough!

[CLANG]

18. This is beyond disturbing. Thank you for this video!

[Turborama]

20. You're most welcome, thanks for spending the time watching it

Please pass it on, if/when you get a chance... ;)

[bertman]

21. Too late to recommend. Not a pretty scenario but one we all need to know about.

Thanks for the post, Turborama.

Edited to say: Assuming this will actually happen, the most terrifying part is that there is no way to predict what is going to happen where. Because there are so many variables that affect climate, and because the rapidity of the changes may alter the speed and ferocity of the changes, we cannot assume that there would be any place on earth that would be safe for humans and animals.

Having read numerous scenarios about how the oceans are being affected and what their changes will bring, I am not optimistic that we apes with opposable thumbs will be able to survive this one.

[Turborama]

24. You're more than welcome, bertman. I share the concerns you have given in the body of your post

:kick:

[closeupready]

22. Bumping for later - have to watch this.

n/t

[Turborama]

25. Kick for greenman3610 n/t