2010 will be the year that intolerance loses elections.

[grantcart]

Conventional Wisdom states that in an off year election that the party in power always loses congressional seats.

This is based on the historical trend that in off year elections its the people who are the most upset that will turn their base out.

So everyone is bracing for a significant loss in House and Senate seats.

I disagree.

Let's begin with the first two words of the first sentence. Conventional Wisdom.

How long has it been since conventional thought has shown much wisdom?

Skinny first time Senator, African-American, last name of Obama, father is Muslim. Yep Conventional Wisdom picked him to win from day one.

However simply because CW made an ass out of themself over the last two years doesn't mean that it isn't going to be right this time.




The good news for this election is based on three other developments that are well documented but people are not really looking down stream on;

1) The Republicans are leaderless (and the faux leaders are trying to cash out).

2) The Republicans are becoming more and more intolerant.

3) Spontaneous groups of disaffected reactionaries are getting organized into a national teabaggers movement that will intersect with the Republicans, challenging them to become even more intollerant.



The most fundamental fact of the Republican Party that outsiders don't understand is that the different groups that comprise the party, financial conservatives, security conservatives, religious conservatives, etc., have a strong dislike for each other.

Different Democratic groups will fight each other constantly, but the different groups basically like each other beyond their ideological disagreements.

Reformed Protestant thinking, the foundation of Republicanism, is based on intolerance. They couldn't tolerate the Roman Catholic doctrine and so purified their own based on 'purified' understanding of the bible. Of course each group of purifiers couldn't tolerate the other purifiers and so you ended up with hundreds of different protestant groups.

The mainline denominations have become more and more tolerant, even of gays now, and their numbers are declining. Individual churches that are more and more intolerant grow to become super churches.

When Republicans are without clear national leadership then open civil war breaks out.

This time potential leaders Steele and Palin are cashing out and putting personal income above everything else, further accerbating leadership tensions in the party.

The only thing that is getting the Republicans excited are the Teabaggers.

They think that they will be able to harness these nutjobs. The only thing that will happen is that the "intolerability index" of the Republican Party will go, almost inconceivably and against all electoral math, higher.

The Republican Party will become more intolerant of gays, African Americans, moderates, unemployed, environmentalists, scientists.

And this is the reason that the Obama administration is going to be advancing Immigration reform to center stage starting in the SOTU.

The Republicans will split because farmers, small business owners, and Republicans in CA, AZ, TX and Florida will all want some solution. In the middle of this Republican civil war the Teabaggers will add their own kerosene, more intolerance.

To understand how this will happen you only have to go where Teabagging started - in California years ago by Ken and Jon on KFI640, the largest talk radio station in the country. They really got going with the Davis recall and have never stopped since. They have changed their tactics though. They have long since stopped attacking Democrats, there really is no point because Democrats will never agree with them and they make money by presenting conflict.

So for the last few years they have instead gone after any Republican who disagrees with them on fiscal issues (they are not conservative on social issues and are completely intolerant of fellow conservatives who, for example, are biased against gays).

They named their campaign "heads on a stick" and this graphic, which they have been running on their website for a couple of years:



http://www.kfiam640.com/pages/johnandkenshow/index.html

Those heads - all Republicans.

Becoming more and more intolerant is an excellent way for Jon and Ken, Limbaugh, and Fox News to make more money. You have a large number of intensely committed rabid followers who follow everything that you say.

It is not however a good way to win elections.

A successful move for immigration reform would not only solidify hispanic support of the Democratic Party, it will bring in more citizens that will support the Democratic Party.

If you are getting 85% of the Africant American and Hispanic vote then you only have to get 35% of the White vote to win elections.

2010 will be the year that the Republican Party officially tells hispanic voters to get the hell out.

So the elections in the fall are not going to be conventional. Those that are forcasting the results at this point in time are not wise.

[cliffordu]

1. From your fingers to the voter's ears and feet.

Nice graphic.

[grantcart]

4. Yeah the graphic really explains what teabagging is really all about

[Cha]

2. That is so gross.

Stupid on a Stick is what they are.

Thanks for this, grant. I think besides the opposition being so stark raving ignorant in 2010..the Dems need to get out and fight like they never did before. This isn't at all about resting on our voting laurels..this is about major followup to 2008:bounce::patriot::party:

[Cha]

3. I guess I'm lucky 'cause

I don't recognize anyone but swartzenegger.

[firedupdem]

5. ha! now I don't feel all alone!

I was looking at those faces like 'who the heck are these people?'

:rofl:

[grantcart]

6. they are repubicans who have voted with Democrats to pass budgets

because a supermajority is required to pass a budget some Republicans have to cross the aisle or the state ceases to function.

The current budget is about the same as 2004 and the teabaggers are still not happy.

They cry about everything. They cry about the expensive car tax. My car will cost me $74 to license in CA

[firedupdem]

10. thanks grantcart...

you are one of the reasons I keep coming back here.

[FrenchieCat]

7. Wish I could Rec this!

So since I can't, I'll give you a bow!

[Cary]

8. Please tell them to run Alan Keyes for Barack Obama's old senate seat again

That was classic! I'd say there's a 20% chance that the inept Illinois Republicans would do it.

[goclark]

9. To grantcart ~ the BOWinner

Great post!

[get the red out]

11. That's great!

I love the part about African American and Hispanic voters increasing. That's a relief, HUGE RELIEF, and I am white btw (I just don't trust white people on important issues, maybe because I live in the south and see how hateful and domineering so many white males are when someone dares disagree with their patriarchal highnesses. Every issue is absolutely all about them and their money and power).