Why Obama Shouldn't Panic (Nate Silver)

[RoyGBiv]

This may have been posted "out there" but I'm staying mostly away from "out there" right now, so I thought I'd post it here.

As I was saying when I got jumped a couple weeks ago for not joining the "all is lost" chorus, I don't really care what his poll numbers are right now. Ask me again in 2.5 years.

By comparison, here's what we get if we take the 4Q approval number and compare it to the 15th Quarter* -- the summer of his fourth year, when the President's own re-election is on the line:



In this case, there's essentially no relationship, and the standard error is not 6 points but 14. About two-thirds of the time in August, 2012, Obama's approval rating will be between 32 and 60 points. There is a one-in-six chance that it will be above 60, and a one-in-six chance that it will be below 32. Not very helpful, right? The first year of Obama's presidency has taught us very little about his fate in 2012 (the same would hold if he had been more -- or even less -- popular).

You can spin these findings in various ways, but in a statistical sense, it's hard to make the argument that Obama's presidency is on the line right now**. An awful lot of things could happen between now and 2012: we could capture or kill Osama bin Laden, or get bogged down in a third front in the war on terror in Pakistan or Yemen; the economy could go into a double-dip recession, or grow at a 5 percent annual clip; a loss of a substantial number of seats at the midterms could bring out the best side of Obama, or his worst. So I don't use this to recommend (or recommend against) any particular course of policy. What I would say, however, is that if you begin to see a panicked attitude coming from the White House, it's not really called for -- it's the Congress's jobs that are on the line right now, and not theirs.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/why-obama-shouldnt-panic.html

[Cha]

1. This is in spite of corporatemediawhores and

liar dogs who wishful think for White House scandals.

[goclark]

2. right you are ~ how many times have we seen that red dress

with the dots walk across that screen to get into the WH party? It was at least 5 times per hour on all the stations. Probably more than the NW guys face.

I have only seen the Pimp clips about 5 times in two /3 days. And after that there are few discussions longer than 1 minute with a PRO PIMP strong voice and a CONPIMP with a weak voice on MSM.