Michelle on Obama's poll numbers

[sandnsea]

This is from the DNC speech today, this is great.

"Now, I understand their frustration –- you understand it as well. I was talking to Michelle the other day –- Michelle is always a good barometer –- and, you know, the front page was, oh, what’s Obama going to do to get his poll numbers up, and, are the Democrats all in a tizzy and this and that. And she said, you know, listen, if you're the average family, if I'm a mom out there and I'm working and my husband is working but we’re worried about losing our jobs, our hours have been cut back, the cost of our health care premium just went up 30 percent, the credit card company just jacked up our interest rates 39 percent, and our home value has gone down by $100,000, our 401(k) is all banged up –- and suddenly somebody calls up and says, so, how do you think President Obama is doing right now? (Laughter.) What are they going to say? What are they going to say? (Applause."

[Cha]

1. They are So Real..they're

Precious!

[treestar]

2. Michelle is greatness

I admire her more than anyone these days.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. I don't remember everyone being so fixated on poll numbers during Bush's first year.

There certainly were not daily tracking polls. Back before the election in '08, presidential approval polls were sometimes a weekly thing and most typically a monthly thing. This gives other presidents an advantage because every minor slide isn't analyzed , even if it is statistical noise.

I mean, look at Gallup's daily tracking poll. We talk about it every single day on DU. If Obama is up, someone posts how he's not being hindered by the crisis. If it's down, it's proof positive he's losing the message wars and is failing as a president. But if you're doing it on a daily basis, you'll see increases and decreases every single time.

Now that isn't to suggest his poll numbers haven't slipped. They have. But if you did it just on a monthly basis instead of daily, it would not only offer a larger sample size, it would change the results dramatically.

Let me show you...

Today, Feb. 6th, 2010, Obama's approval is 50% and his disapproval is 43%.

So let's do it this way:

February 6th, 2010: +50, -43
January 6th, 2010: +42, -41
December 6th, 2009: +50, -44
November 6th, 2009: +53, -41
October 6th, 2009: +53, -40
September 6th, 2009: +51, -42
August 6th, 2009: +55, -38
July 6th, 2009: +58, -35
June 6th, 2009: +61, -34
May 6th, 2009: +66, -28
April 6th, 2009: +61, -28
March 6th, 2009: +62, -26
February 6th, 2009: +65, -20

Okay, so this time last year, shortly after taking office, Pres. Obama had an approval rating of 65-20. Not bad. The decline has been sharp, obviously. He's lost 15-points on his approval and gained 23 points on his disapproval.

However, look at these months more closely.

Obama's approval ratings were generally high from Feb-July. Then the healthcare debate started and they began to slip. Summer also ended and generally, approval jumps during the summer because people are out vacationing and paying less to politics. It's a down time for Congress and most of the time nothing is going on in the country that can be considered truly divisive. I mean, the town hall forums started in August, but prior to that the biggest controversy facing Pres. Obama was his speech at Notre Dame in May! That was it.

So Pres. Obama's approval ratings went from 61% in June to 51% in September. A decrease of ten points in only three months. Now look at his monthly approval ratings from September to February.

They are almost identical. His approval/disapproval rating in September was 51-42. It's 50-43 today. Remarkable stability, right? But no one ever reports on this! It's about his approval ratings have tumbled over the months. But in Gallup's poll, if you look at it monthly, they're about the level they were in September.

And they're better than they were a month ago.

So for a half-year now, Pres. Obama's approval ratings have been in the 50-40 range. About what he won the 2008 election by over McCain.

So I guess I'm not panicking about the decline in approval. Because if you look at it from a monthly perspective, he's doing no worse today than he was in September of 2009. And his numbers have been pretty damn consistent over the fall/winter months. Down from a year ago? Sure. But down from a month ago? No. Two months? Three months? Not even.

[goclark]

4. Thank you!

[sandnsea]

6. These are Obama's words

I thought it was funny.

:shrug:

[BlueCaliDem]

5. Anyone ever see "Gladiator" with Russell Crow?

There was a scene wherein Joaquine Phoenix stood on the balcony with his sister, watching as Maximus won the roaring praise of the people for his fight.

Phoenix was furious and said he was going to have Maximus killed. His sister wisely told him he couldn't do it because the mob loved him. She advised him, "kill the name then kill the man".

That's basically what corporate media is doing to our President. His popularity is too high and he was untouchable, but putting out misleading daily polls helps brainwash the masses into thinking he's lost his luster - and then the their lackeys, the GOP could move in and render him impotent to make the changes he promised.

[Tarheel_Dem]

7. This is what I love about this couple. THEY GET IT! I'm not worried about...

the president's poll numbers. We're seeing encouraging signs in the news everyday. If people want to return to circa 2008, then we deserve what we get. Whether he's re-elected or not, this president will go on to do many great things. The world loves him, so he'll be a valuable ambassador once he leaves office. But that won't be until 2017 or so.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Those are our Peeps; Michelle and Obama!

Love that pair!