Seismic changes in the War in Afghanistan

[grantcart]

(On the road - apologize for inability to respond to the thread)

Significant changes in military strategy and tactics instituted by the President and the leader of NATO forces, General McChrystal are generating significant results on the ground in Afghanistan. Reactions from the left in the blogosphere range from 'nothing' has changed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, to 'it will still end in failure'. Reaction from the right is that current operations are so careful to reduce civilian casualties that they are 'endangering American military forces'.

Reports on the recent offensive and the events that are obviously being coordinated in the Pakistan province of Kunduz are pointing to the most significant blows to the Taliban, its foreign fighters and its command structure, all with a significant reduction in the loss of life. In Pakistan Baradar's capture has led to the arrest of seven significant middle level Taliban commanders, all without any loss of life.

It is ironic that at the exact same time that US forces in Iraq are now at the lowest point since the invasion that situation in Afghanistan is undergoing seismic changes, substantive changes for the better.

When people ask about where Change is evident there can be no better example than significantly reducing casualties not only civilians, but also Taliban, and undertaking the kind of policy changes that will rob the Taliban of popular support in remotre regions of Afghanistan.

Well done Mr. President.




The recent offensive into Helmand Province and the city of Marjah is signalling a completely different approach to NATO/ANA (Afghan National Army) approach to advancing against the Taliban.

These changes were outlined here:

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/grantcart


Here is an update

1) Reducing the use of air power


The basic approach means not using air support, except when no civilian casualties can be guaranteed and to go slower and build more civilian support.

This neocon OP ed contributor in the NYT's is now arguing that the lack of air raids is endangering American troops. What she is actually doing is documenting how far President Obama's chosen commander General McChrystal has gone in taking a radical position in eliminating civilian casualties.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/opinion/18dadkhah.html

American and NATO military leaders — worried by Taliban propaganda claiming that air strikes have killed an inordinate number of civilians, and persuaded by “hearts and minds” enthusiasts that the key to winning the war is the Afghan population’s goodwill — have largely relinquished the strategic advantage of American air dominance. Last July, the commander of Western forces, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, issued a directive that air strikes (and long-range artillery fire) be authorized only under “very limited and prescribed conditions.”

So in a modern refashioning of the obvious — that war is harmful to civilian populations — the United States military has begun basing doctrine on the premise that dead civilians are harmful to the conduct of war. The trouble is, no past war has ever supplied compelling proof of that claim.

In Marja, American and Afghan troops have shown great skill in routing the Taliban occupiers. But news reports indicate that our troops under heavy attack have had to wait an hour or more for air support, so that insurgents could be positively identified. “We didn’t come to Marja to destroy it, or to hurt civilians,” a Marine officer told reporters after waiting 90 minutes before the Cobra helicopters he had requested showed up with their Hellfire missiles. He’s right that the goal is not to kill bystanders or destroy towns, but an overemphasis on civilian protection is now putting American troops on the defensive in what is intended to be a major offensive.

The patient and determined strategy and tactics of NATO/ANA reflect our President's patience and steely determinism.

It is also the only way to assist the Afghan government establish a secular government that has the trust of the people.

2) Killing the Taliban no longer the key operational priority

By the end of the day, the Marines had cleared about a third of the Pork Chop. Although Marine officers spotted more than a dozen suspected insurgents gathering in the morning, they opted not to mount the sort of gun battles they did on the first few days of the operation.

The lack of firefights disappointed some Marines, but the commander of the operation said he was pleased the insurgents did not make a stand.

"For us, just pushing them out of town is enough," said Capt. Ryan Sparks. "Our goal is to take care of the people, not kill the Taliban."

3) Human rights organizations applaud changes in strategy and tactics

Ahmad Nader Nadery, a member of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, said the U.S. military's decision to publicize the operation beforehand, giving residents enough time to leave, has helped minimize the civilian toll. He also credited the move to reduce the reliance on airpower, which was done to protect noncombatants.

4) Local elders support NATO/ANA offensive

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/17/AR2010021704484.html

For another Marja resident, the tribal elder Haji Khalifa Mohammad Shah, the outlook could not be more different. He nurtures hopes that his town will be wrested from the Taliban.

"Fighting is not handing out cookies, it's gunfire and rockets, and there will be casualties," he said. "But we are happy about this operation, and it will secure our area."

The largest joint military operation of the war -- involving about 15,000 U.S., NATO and Afghan troops -- has elicited a broad range of reactions from local Afghans, who are less concerned about daily updates of intersections secured than about whether life might look different when the fighting is done. There is anger and skepticism, but also guarded hope.

"The people of Helmand, the majority of them, welcome these kinds of operations, but what they are worried about is the local government after this operation is over. Who will be the local authority? How will they treat the people?" said Haji Mohammad Anwar Isakzai, a member of parliament from Helmand province.


. . .


"The Taliban have banned people from leaving their houses," said Shah Wali Khan, a tribal elder. Residents say, " 'We want this operation to be finished as soon as possible. We are in trouble. We don't have enough food. We need help,' " he added.

The fighting has killed at least 15 civilians, according to U.S. and Afghan officials. Many consider the number of civilian casualties -- a concern that President Hamid Karzai has raised repeatedly-- as relatively low, given the scope of the offensive.

5) Marjah now in control of the Afghan government and they are begining to establish government services.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/766629--troops-mop-up-in-marja

The entry of Marines and Afghan soldiers into the area surrounding the municipal centre is expected to begin the complicated but essential process of establishing government authority in the area and delivering basic services to the population, a key goal of the military operation.

With the centre now out of Taliban hands, Marine commanders plan to bring in about 80 Afghan paramilitary police Wednesday. About 400 such officers will patrol parts of Marja that have been cleared until a local police force can be recruited and trained.

The establishment of government services and the development of effective local security forces will be a key test of U.S. President Barack Obama's new strategy for stabilizing Afghanistan.

6) New Governor comes outside of the corrupted pool of candidates;

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100218/ap_on_re_as/as_afghan_taliban

But Afghanistan's government remains corrupt and dysfunctional. And in some places, such as Marja, in Helmand province, it is nonexistent. There isn't even a municipal building – just a foundation on which residents set up a weekly market.

To address that, a team U.S. and British diplomats and reconstruction personnel plan to set up a stabilization office in Marja in the coming days. A top priority will be to bring in the newly appointed district governor, Haji Zahir, who recently returned to Afghanistan after spending the past 15 years in Germany, and help him begin the complex task of building a government from scratch.

7) Pakistan cooperation continues at a new and high level

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100218/ap_on_re_as/as_afghan_taliban

KABUL – Pakistani authorities, aided by U.S. intelligence, have apprehended more Afghan Taliban chiefs following the capture of the movement's No. 2 figure — arrests that together represent the biggest blow to the insurgents since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001.

The arrests of more than a dozen Taliban leaders, including known associates of Osama bin Laden, came as militants fought to keep a grip on their southern stronghold of Marjah. Hundreds of militants were holding out against a six-day-old assault by 15,000 U.S., NATO and Afghan troops.

Nine Taliban militants linked to al-Qaida were nabbed in three raids late Wednesday and early Thursday near the port city of Karachi, Pakistani intelligence officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity because they weren't supposed to release the information.

Two Taliban shadow governors also were apprehended in separate raids, Afghan and Pakistani officials said without giving specifics.

The arrests follow the capture in Karachi of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, second only to the Taliban's one-eyed leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar. The White House and the Pakistani army have confirmed Baradar's arrest but have released few details, including when and how he was apprehended.

(as expected Baradar has been talking)


Pakistani intelligence officials said Baradar was traveling by car on the outskirts of Karachi when agents intercepted his vehicle, arresting him along with three bodyguards. One intelligence official said Baradar has provided "useful" information that led to the arrests of other militants.

List of senior operatives arrested

Among those arrested were Ameer Muawiya, a bin Laden associate who was in charge of foreign al-Qaida militants in Pakistan's border areas , and Akhunzada Popalzai, also known as Mohammad Younis, a one-time Taliban shadow governor in Zabul province and former police chief in Kabul, according to Mullah Mamamood, a tribal leader in Ghazni province.

Others captured in Karachi included Hamza, a former Afghan army commander in Helmand province during Taliban rule, and Abu Riyad al Zarqawi, a liaison with Chechen and Tajik militants in Pakistan's border area, Pakistani officials said.

Taliban shadow governors — Mullah Abdul Salam of Kunduz province and Mullah Mohammad in Baghlan province — were arrested separately in Pakistan about 10 to 12 days ago, according to the Kunduz governor, Mohammad Omar.

The two shadow governors were instrumental in expanding Taliban influence in the north, raising fears the insurgency was spreading beyond its base in the south. Salam was arrested in the Pakistani city of Faisalabad. One of the officials said Salam's arrest was the result of information gleaned from Mullah Baradar.

[mr1956]

1. As a veteran and one who works with service members

I applaud the new direction the President is taking in waging these wars. I will be most happy when both conflicts are over but I believe this new approach is our best chance at achieving long-lasting results.

[Cha]

2. Thanks grant for the indepth

research and analysis on the big difference and recent successes in Afghanistan now with the Obama admin..who are being harshly criticized from the left and the right but are keeping focused on getting the job done that they were elected to do.

[RoyGBiv]

3. I just wanted to highlight something in this excellent piece ...

Ahmad Nader Nadery, a member of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, said the U.S. military's decision to publicize the operation beforehand, giving residents enough time to leave, has helped minimize the civilian toll. He also credited the move to reduce the reliance on airpower, which was done to protect noncombatants.

Many, many people around these parts kept complaining about this prior publication, and each and every time the reason for it was mentioned, that explanation was ignored entirely. Then, the complainers went on to complain more about potential civilian casualties.

Well, there you go ...

[cliffordu]

4. Excellent work, my friend. Excellent.

[goclark]

5. grantccart, can they hire you at CNN?

Candy needs to take a loooooooooog vacation and you would bring so much to the important issues. And you tell the Truth!


grantcart "yourock:

[grantcart]

6. Or they could use my secret investigation techniques

I use a secret portal called 'google'

I put in all of the related terms possible,

Then I read all of the responsible sources involved.

Amazing!

[Cha]

7. Whereas candy and her cohorts get their

talking points in the daily disinformation meetings.

[RoyGBiv]

8. Well there's your problem ...

Reading. This requires reading ... and a bit of doing what them thar profesionalimated dilly whacker people call checking sources.

News anchors never got none of that thar learnin' in skool.

How to trim eyebrows and choosing the perfect wardrobe, yes. Reading? Not so much.

[Clio the Leo]

9. Wish you'd posted this in GD:P but thanks for posting it anyway. NT

[grantcart]

10. I cross posted it there

It doesn't generate much discussion because people are too entrenched into a preconceived idea about what is happening and don't want to be challenged by facts.

If the Taliban collapses some folks are going to be bitterly disappointed.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x187848

[Cha]

11. The collapse of the taliban is an

important component for the safety and health of our Planet.

When combined with the Baradar arrest, the developments represent "the most significant blow to the Taliban's leadership since the American-backed war began eight years ago." It also points to an unprecedented level of cooperation between U.S. officials and the Pakistani government.

And it gets better still.

Pakistani authorities using U.S.-gathered intelligence arrested up to nine al-Qaida-linked militants in a series of overnight raids in the southern city of Karachi, officials said Thursday. <...>

They said eight or nine militant suspects were arrested. One was identified as Ameer Muawiya, who the officials said was in charge of foreign al-Qaida militants operating in Pakistan's tribal regions near Afghanistan and was an associate of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Go ahead, Republicans, tell us again about why we should question the Obama administration's approach to national security and counter-terrorism."

—Steve Benen 9:25 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com /

[grantcart]

13. I agree completely

The most dangerous place in the world is the sub continent.

Before they had nuclear weapons and were simply drawing a border almost a million Indians and Pakistanis died from spontaneous acts of violence.

An organized war between these two states would create global instability and, IMHO, is more dangerous than the Palestine/Israel conflict.

Al Queda/Taliban goal of creating conflict between these two countries is the most compelling reason for us to stay and get the job done right.

I didn't want to go so far as to say "collapse of the Taliban" but that is what is now possible. Just as Afghanistan is difficult for us to supply it is equally difficult for the Taliban, especially when they lose their urban centers.

Not only do they have a problem resupplying their military units but they will have increasing problems getting opium out and securing their source of revenue.

This will lead more and more practical elements of tribal leadership that had made an alliance with the Taliban to peel off.

BTW couldn't find the article your quoting on the link. It was so similar I was wondering if he was reading our notes!

[Cha]

14. I did an OP from Steve Benen's site(WashingtonMonthly)

on Thursday..so you have to scroll down in the Feb Archives to see exactly where it is now. Here's the rest of that section from the OP on Thursday the 18th. You both are very informative..you go into more detail on Afghanistan, grant and he covers a lot of other Political stuff.


"TALIBAN SUFFERS ANOTHER 'SIGNIFICANT BLOW'.... We learned this week about the capture of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban's top military commander. Baradar was the most significant Taliban figure to be detained since the war began, making this a key success story.

Better yet, it was the start of an apparent trend.

Two senior Taliban leaders have been arrested in recent days inside Pakistan, officials said Thursday, as American and Pakistani intelligence agents continued to press their offensive against the group's leadership after the capture of the insurgency's military commander last month.

Afghan officials said the Taliban's "shadow governors" for two provinces in northern Afghanistan had been detained in Pakistan by officials there. Mullah Abdul Salam, the Taliban's leader in Kunduz, was detained in the Pakistani city of Faisalabad, and Mullah Mir Mohammed of Baghlan Province was also captured in an undisclosed Pakistani city, they said.

When combined with the Baradar arrest, the developments represent "the most significant blow to the Taliban's leadership since the American-backed war began eight years ago." It also points to an unprecedented level of cooperation between U.S. officials and the Pakistani government.

And it gets better still.

Pakistani authorities using U.S.-gathered intelligence arrested up to nine al-Qaida-linked militants in a series of overnight raids in the southern city of Karachi, officials said Thursday. <...>

They said eight or nine militant suspects were arrested. One was identified as Ameer Muawiya, who the officials said was in charge of foreign al-Qaida militants operating in Pakistan's tribal regions near Afghanistan and was an associate of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Go ahead, Republicans, tell us again about why we should question the Obama administration's approach to national security and counter-terrorism."

—Steve Benen 9:25 AM Permalink | Trackbacks | Comments (16)
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com /

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=388x16948

Thank you for all your analysis on Afghanistan and the powder keg surrounding it.

[goclark]

15. Right you are grantcart,

Some people don't like to be confused with facts.

I loved Dragnet, " give me the facts, just the facts" and don't cloud them with Cheney Lies.

[NJmaverick]

12. If the left blog sphere hadn't engaged in knee jerk opposition to the President's plans

they wouldn't have to be stubbornly ignoring the FACT that they were proven WRONG.