I wonder

[phrigndumass]

if grantcart is roaming these halls ...

[grantcart]

1. here

so we have to wait until we see some numbers before we know how to write it

[phrigndumass]

2. lol

um ... don't we already know?

:rofl:

Nah, kidding aside, this is a good idea.

2% of Indiana in:
Clinton 61%
Obama 39%
(District 2 ... it was expected to go C)

[grantcart]

3. I predicted Guam 7 votes lol

The thing is we should get a basic idea when the polls close

[phrigndumass]

5. Yep ...

North Carolina won't close until over an hour from now. So, we have time to think about writing.

Feel free to take time, maybe write something, and maybe meet back here around 8:00 Eastern? (4:00 your time?)

[phrigndumass]

4. Referring to the charts ... terminology

Chart 1:



********************

Chart 2:



********************

Graph 1:

[grantcart]

6. .

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008


So the add on is for "well known" super delegates is 27

[phrigndumass]

8. ...

I have 27 shown in both Chart 1 and Chart 2, so that works.

We can use your detail in that post to justify the usage of 27 add-ons well-known for Obama

[grantcart]

26. We believe that we have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

I) Words Matter. Numbers Matter. Having just lived through 8 years of denial its time to show that the Democratic Party is not wishy washy but lives by clear analysis of facts and here are the facts:

< current numbers >


II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 27 add on Super Delegates that those that come from the following states Obama won decisively he will carry all of these add on delegates

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008


We also know that he will get these 7 super delegates when he gets the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th.

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Gov. Roy Romer (CO) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)


III When we add these "Highly Likely Obama Supporters" it means that of the remaining < > super delegates Hillary has to win < >%
Obama needs only < > super delegates or only < >%



IV. Given the trends since Super Tuesday below we find that a Clinton victory is no longer mathematically possible and that an Obama victory is mathematically certain





V. Therefore the members of DU who have added their names below believe that we now have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. That while it will take the rest of the world to catch up with reality we don't think that the pretense that there is any rational chance that Senator Obama will not be our nominee should be maintained here.


add names

[phrigndumass]

35. charts added ...

I) Words Matter. Numbers Matter. Having just lived through 8 years of denial its time to show that the Democratic Party is not wishy washy but lives by clear analysis of facts and here are the facts:









II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 27 add on Super Delegates that those that come from the following states Obama won decisively he will carry all of these add on delegates

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008


We also know that he will get these 7 super delegates when he gets the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th.

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Gov. Roy Romer (CO) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)


III When we add these "Highly Likely Obama Supporters" it means that of the remaining < > super delegates Hillary has to win < >%
Obama needs only < > super delegates or only < >%



IV. Given the trends since Super Tuesday below we find that a Clinton victory is no longer mathematically possible and that an Obama victory is mathematically certain




V. Therefore the members of DU who have added their names below believe that we now have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. That while it will take the rest of the world to catch up with reality we don't think that the pretense that there is any rational chance that Senator Obama will not be our nominee should be maintained here.


add names

[grantcart]

38. ..

1) did you add in the 7 pelosi SDs (and subtract one from Hillary?)

2) are we going to go with actual numbers for IN NC or projected?

3) we need to add the numbers and the percentages into the text

[phrigndumass]

42. ...

1) I'll change my chart from 27 to 34, and -1 for Clinton

2) What do you think about projecting:
NC Obama +14
IN Clinton +8

Or we could wait about an hour until more figures come in, and we have a closer range

3) Once the charts are finished (won't take a few seconds), we can input the numbers and percentages into the text

?

}(

[phrigndumass]

7. Percentages for future pledged delegates

Here's our range.

Pro-Obama ...
Indiana Obama +2 (pledged Obama 37, Clinton 35)
North Carolina Obama +14 (pledged Obama 66, Clinton 49)
Obama needs 10.6% of all remaining pledged delegates to stay ahead
Clinton needs 89.4% of all remaining pledged delegates to catch up

Pro-Clinton ...
Indiana Clinton +10 (pledged Obama 33, Clinton 39)
North Carolina Obama +3 (pledged Obama 60, Clinton 55)
Obama needs 15.2% of all remaining pledged delegates to stay ahead
Clinton needs 84.8% of all remaining pledged delegates to catch up

[grantcart]

9. well lets wait until the states are called

that will make a big difference on how to frame it.

Also there will be hundreds of threads come out all at once and it will be hard to keep one alive.

[phrigndumass]

11. you bet

you're right, we'll need to keep the post near the top

I'll wait a bit before getting into percentages (except for SD's which I already posted)

[phrigndumass]

10. Pct for future SD

After the 27 are figured in ...

NC & IN Pro-Obama:
Clinton needs 210 of 240 superdelegates to win (87.5%)
Obama needs 30 of 240 superdelegates to huck Clinton (12.5%)

NC & IN Pro-Clinton:
Clinton needs 200 of 240 superdelegates to win (83.3%)
Obama needs 40 of 240 superdelegates to huck Clinton (16.7%)

(edited for duh)

[grantcart]

12. something doesn't look right there

the pro clinton scenario has Obama only needing 30 and the pro obama scenario he needs 40

[phrigndumass]

13. Oops, I'll edit lol

[grantcart]

14. Obama picks up 1 SD lol

[phrigndumass]

15. no shit? lol

I see it now ... A DNC from NC. Gotta keep up with these, maybe there'll be more, lol

[grantcart]

16. shit Obama wins NC

has to be atleast 10 points

[phrigndumass]

18. Good GAWD, the fucking polls have been closed for 2 minutes!!

LMAO

What's up with MSNBC ... crazy!

[grantcart]

19. exit polls have a blow out

[grantcart]

17. I was going to say 'if it is a split then the head line should be

and he won NC BIG


suggested subject for the thread



We believe that we have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

[phrigndumass]

20. you had to edit, lol

They said it was called the moment the polls closed.

We might need to shorten the subject a bit ... will that fit? If it does fit, that's a good subject title.

[grantcart]

21. Cnn has already given him 20 delegates in NC

[phrigndumass]

22. At this rate (10 minutes after polls close) maybe he'll get all 115

[phrigndumass]

25. DCW has figures in ...

Indiana Clinton 25 to 20 delegates
North Carolina Obama 38 to 33 delegates

[grantcart]

28. MSNBC hinting at + 15 delegates for Obama

[phrigndumass]

29. Yeah, +14 would erase PA

They're saying +10-15 in NC, while IN is getting closer

[phrigndumass]

23. LOL ... Clinton's argument, it's not the big states anymore, it's the BIGGER states

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

24. North Carolina isn't big enough

[grantcart]

27. #26 is a draft what do you think?

[phrigndumass]

30. 47 or 27

"II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 47 add on"

should that be 27?

Just pointing that one out, going back to read more

[grantcart]

31. done

[grantcart]

32. look at this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5848114

[phrigndumass]

33. ours will be better

but they're doing this quick in GDP

[grantcart]

34. well do we know enough to put it together?

[phrigndumass]

37. I can project ... what do you think about this:

Project Obama +14 in NC

Project Clinton +8 in IN

It won't take but a second to chart them

[phrigndumass]

36. Look at my reply to #26

[grantcart]

39. see 38 above

what did you think about the overall layout of the text?

wanted to be brief and firm

[phrigndumass]

44. Layout of the text is good, replied to 38

brief and firm is the way to go

[grantcart]

40. out of fairness we can also add '20 well known SDs' for Hillary

[grantcart]

41. MSNBC is talking about 5/20 and the Pelosi number

[phrigndumass]

43. That would be fair, but it will lower her percentages as well

[grantcart]

45. fair is better and we have plenty of percent to give

just trying to anticipate the objections

[grantcart]

46. looks like Zogby got it right tonight

oh and where are the 7 Pelosi SDs added in?

[phrigndumass]

48. Okay, take a look at the posts near the top, the charts have magically changed

[grantcart]

47. you there?

[phrigndumass]

49. Yep, take another look at Reply #35, the charts have changed in them

[grantcart]

50. still confused about the 7 pelosi SDs shouldn't they be added to the well known number?

[phrigndumass]

53. I added them, Obama will win the pledged delegates

look at the updated post at the bottom of this thread, whatcha think?

[phrigndumass]

51. We believe that we have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

I) Words Matter. Numbers Matter. Having just lived through 8 years of denial its time to show that the Democratic Party is not wishy washy but lives by clear analysis of facts and here are the facts:





**************************



**************************



**************************


II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 27 add on Super Delegates that those that come from the following states Obama won decisively he will carry all of these add on delegates

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008


We also know that he will get these 7 super delegates when he gets the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th.

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Gov. Roy Romer (CO) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)


III When we add these "Highly Likely Obama Supporters" and "Highly Likely Clinton Supporters" it means that of the remaining 214 super delegates Hillary has to win 87.9%
Obama needs only 26 super delegates or only 12.1%.


IV. Given the trends since Super Tuesday below we find that a Clinton victory is no longer mathematically possible and that an Obama victory is mathematically certain





V. Therefore the members of DU who have added their names below believe that we now have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. That while it will take the rest of the world to catch up with reality we don't think that the pretense that there is any rational chance that Senator Obama will not be our nominee should be maintained here.


add names

[grantcart]

52. .

[phrigndumass]

54. Cell phone went dead, will try again in a sec

[phrigndumass]

55. I'm laughing

[phrigndumass]

57. Lost ya again ...

I'll change the charts and repost one more time, won't take but a minute or two

[grantcart]

56. so anyway it looks good to go let me know

[phrigndumass]

58. We believe that we have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

This post is compiled and written jointly by grantcart and phrigndumass


I) Words Matter. Numbers Matter. Having just lived through 8 years of denial its time to show that the Democratic Party is not wishy washy but lives by clear analysis of facts and here are the facts:





**************************



**************************



**************************


II) We also know that of the remaing super delegates 27 add on Super Delegates that those that come from the following states Obama won decisively he will carry all of these add on delegates

Utah 1 5/9/2008
Colorado 1 5/17/2008
Kansas 1 5/17/2008
Alaska 1 5/23/2008
Georgia 2 5/24/2008
Wyoming 1 5/24/2008
Hawaii 1 5/25/2008
Mississippi 1 5/31/2008
Maine 1 6/1/2008
Minnesota 2 6/7/2008
Vermont 1 6/7/2008
Montana 1 6/8/2008
Wisconsin 2 6/13/2008
Idaho 1 6/14/2008
Iowa 1 6/14/2008
Virginia 2 6/14/2008
Washington 2 6/15/2008
North Carolina 2 6/21/2008
Oregon 1 6/21/2008
South Dakota 1 6/21/2008
Nebraska 1 6/21/2008


We also know that he will get these 7 super delegates when he gets the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th.

Clinton endorsers:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (WA) - most pledged delegates, most states won

Uncommitted:
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Christine Pelosi (CA) (added 3/30)
Gov. Roy Romer (CO) (added 3/30)
Former President Jimmy Carter (GA) (added 5/1)
Betty Richie (TX) (added 3/30)
Denise Johnson (TX) (added 4/6)


III When we add these "Highly Likely Obama Supporters" and "Highly Likely Clinton Supporters" it means that of the remaining 214 super delegates Hillary has to win 87.9%
Obama needs only 26 super delegates or only 12.1%.


IV. Given the trends since Super Tuesday below we find that a Clinton victory is no longer mathematically possible and that an Obama victory is mathematically certain





V. Therefore the members of DU who have added their names below believe that we now have a MATHEMATICAL PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. That while it will take the rest of the world to catch up with reality we don't think that the pretense that there is any rational chance that Senator Obama will not be our nominee should be maintained here.


Respectfully submitted,

Grantcart and Phrigndumass


.


If you agree and would like to co-sign this document, please reply below and recommend this thread.

[phrigndumass]

59. This is it ... give me the okay or suggest a change

[grantcart]

60. Below

looks really good we still need to add 19 for Clinton in the two places for her "likely add ons" and Obama's should be 34

Also can you make the other subject out lines I,II,III,IV in the same bold as V?

[Kukesa]

61. When you two get together it's always a party! Thanx. n/t

[phrigndumass]

62. LMAO! We need a janitor in this thread to clean up the damn mess!

Papers everywhere, sheesh!

:crazy:

:hi: