Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu Heads For Oman, Persian Gulf - Cat 5 Now, Cat 4 At Landfall - Reuters

[hatrack]

EDIT

Super cyclonic storm Gonu is forecast to strike Oman at about 00:00 GMT on 6 June. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 22.1 N, 60.2 E. Gonu is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 212 km/h (132 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Gonu's strength (category 4) at landfall includes:

Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.

Curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences.

Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.

Complete destruction of mobile homes.

Extensive damage to doors and windows.

Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm.

Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.

Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).

EDIT

http://www.alertnet.org/thefacts/reliefresources/TSR/200702A_02A.htm

[SoCalDem]

1. Do they normally get storms like this?? n/t

[SoCalDem]

Found this from wikipedia.. lots of interesting statistics

don't you hate it when posters reply to themselves :P?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notable_tropical_cyclones

[KoKo]

5. SoCal...looks like very few hit Oman...check this out...

Arabian Peninsula

* 1983 - Tropical Storm Aurora struck Oman.
* May, 1984 - Tropical Storm 01-A transited the Gulf of Aden and made landfall in northwest Somalia, the first tropical cyclone on record to do so.
* October, 1992 - Tropical Storm 06-A struck Oman.
* June, 1996 - Tropical Storm 02-A struck Oman.


Don't know how long they've been keeping records in the Arabian Peninsula but these statistics make it look pretty rare.

I don't know how one looks up the damage for storms named 01-A and 06-A, though or to find the strength of those storms. :shrug:

[SoCalDem]

7. That graphic of "Tip" was something else.. Makes Katrina look like a toddler

:scared:

[magellan]

34. Here's some info on tropical storms 1A and 6A that hit Oman

Tropical Storm One (1A)

On January 14 1991, a tropical depression formed southeast of Sri Lanka. It traveled westward, becoming a tropical storm on the 17th before dissipating on the 20th over the Arabian Sea. Initially, it appeared that the storm might affect the air campaign of the Gulf War, but the system remained well to the south of the area.

Tropical Storm Six (6A)

On September 29 1992, a tropical depression formed over India. It tracked westward, slowly strengthening to a tropical storm on the 1st due to vertical shear. The shear abated enough to let the storm reach a peak of 65 mph winds, but it returned, weakening the system to a 50 mph storm just before hitting eastern Oman on the 3rd.

---------------------------------------------
Tropical storms carry 30-73 mph sustained winds and lots of rain. The main threat from them is flooding, though minor damage can be done by the wind (power outages, damage to vegetation). The next step up on the Saffir/Simpson Scale is Cat 1.

If Oman has only suffered tropical storms in the past, they're in for a bad time if Gonu makes landfall as a Cat 4. (131-155 mph sustained winds)

[KoKo]

55. ...

[Donnachaidh]

2. err -- WHERE are all our destoyers stationed at the moment?

Are they in line for this?

[krispos42]

22. The carrier battle groups will probably move further up into the Gulf

They can survive the storm, but I doubt they will be able to launch or recover planes, or launch missiles. Hell, their radars might even be almost useless from all the airborne water.

[malaise]

23. Bet they're moving about now

Oh the irony.

[KoKo]

3. Is this normal? Would it cause seas in the Gulf that could disturb our carriers there?

I don't recall ever hearing of Cyclones in the Gulf.... Doesn't sound good.

[Donnachaidh]

4. my thoughts exactly

How many do we have over there now?

[KoKo]

8. I've seen reports of 3 to 7... Also it was reported that it's very narrow there

and that there were questions of having so many carriers along with other shipping traffic that it might cause an "incident" because of the crowding that could start a war. Imagine they have enough warning they could get them out...but Cheney might want to take "chances" rather than move his ships out...

[Donnachaidh]

14. He's a sick enough puppy -- is Darth still over there?

Hiding out, overseeing the theft of Iraqi oil?

[uppityperson]

6. That is wild. Here is another image from wunderground

And another from http://www.hurricanezone.net/

[NickB79]

9. Are there significant oil-export/refinery facilities in that region?

Or is that further up into the Strait of Hormez?

[KoKo]

11. Here's a map from WIKI and it says there are gas and oil lines all in the area...

Geography
Satellite image showing the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz is the dramatic constriction on the right third.
Satellite image showing the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz is the dramatic constriction on the right third.

This inland sea of some 233,000 km² is connected to the Gulf of Oman in the east by the Strait of Hormuz; and its western end is marked by the major river delta of Arvandrud, which carries the waters of the Euphrates and the Tigris. Its length is 989 kilometres, separating mainly Iran from Saudi Arabia with the shortest divide of about 56 kilometres in the Strait of Hormuz. The waters are overall very shallow and have a maximum depth of 90 metres and an average depth of 50 metres.

Countries with a coastline on the Persian Gulf are (clockwise, from the north): Iran, Oman (exclave of Musandam), United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar on a peninsula off the Saudi coast, Bahrain on an island, Kuwait and Iraq in the northwest. Various small islands lie within the Persian Gulf.

Oil and gas

The Persian Gulf and its coastal areas are the world's largest single source of crude oil and related industries dominate the region. Al-Safaniya, the world's largest offshore oilfield, is located in the Persian gulf. Large gas finds have also been made with Qatar and Iran sharing a giant field across the territorial median line (North Field in the Qatari sector; South Pars Field in the Iranian sector). Using this gas, Qatar has built up a substantial liquified natural gas (LNG) and petrochemical industry.

The oil-rich countries (excluding Iraq) that have a coastline on the Persian Gulf are referred to as the Persian Gulf States. Iraq's egress to the gulf is narrow and easily blockaded consisting of the marshy river delta of Shatt al-Arab (Arvandrud), which carries the waters of the Euphrates and the Tigris Rivers, where the left (East) bank is held by Iran.

[KoKo]

19. Here's an update from a Tropical Cyclone Blog....

http://journals.aol.co.uk/pharmolo/TropicalCyclones/



04 June 2007
Subject: 04-06-07 / 1500
Time: 16:17:34 o'clock BST
Author: pharmolo

Arabian Sea
Tropical cyclone Gonu is currently at peak intensity, with winds of 140 knots, gusting to 170 knots, making it a category 5 hurricane. Position 19.9N 64.1E or 380 miles southeast of Muscat, course northwest 10 knots. The cyclone will slowly weaken over the next 24 hours, then more rapidly. Landfall is expected on 6 June, on the far eastern cape of Oman with winds of 100 knots. Expected time of arrival just after midnight GMT. The storm could divert further north, driving it into the Gulf of Oman; on current course, the system wil reemerge over water after landfall but is not expected to reintensify.

PLEASE RELAY
Next update at 2100 GMT

[hatrack]

25. The Oil Drum has a really good thread on all things Gonu - Infrastructure info, too

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623#more

[uppityperson]

26. Here's a map of "major energy infrastructure" & where Gonu will be

http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=289703

The cyclone is rotating counterclockwise -- as it would in the Gulf of Mexico -- meaning that, should it enter the Persian Gulf, the gulf's west coast would suffer the most serious damage. Along the west coast, low-lying areas are the norm, and there are few barrier islands like the ones that line the Gulf of Mexico to absorb much of the storm surge that could therefore penetrate miles inland.

Like all weather phenomena, hurricanes and cyclones are notoriously fickle, so there is (thankfully) no guarantee Gonu will enter the Persian Gulf, much less wreck it. But there are two facilities that bear specific mention: the Ras Tanura and Ras al-Juaymah oil loading platforms in Saudi Arabia. So far, the chances of either of these facilities suffering a direct hit are very slim -- Gonu is still 750 miles away from those export points -- but they collectively pump nearly 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude. These facilities, while critical to global energy supplies and -- due to their size -- largely immune to terrorist attacks, are not particularly hurricane resistant. After all, they were built in an area where such storms are almost unheard of. Other (hardly insignificant) energy installations dot the region in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates -- most of them on the west coast. Luckily, there is little offshore production in the Persian Gulf -- unlike in the Gulf of Mexico -- so there is unlikely to be much permanent damage to the oil production facilities themselves.

More likely is shipping disruption. Right now, Gonu is on a collision course with the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint that transits some 17 million bpd of crude. Within the next few hours, the tankers and supertankers -- not to mention the massive container ships that often visit regional hubs in the United Arab Emirates -- that ply that route will be scurrying out of the storm's way. In the Gulf of Mexico, such storm-dodging is an annual ritual that is no major concern, but in the world's "Cradle of Oil," this is a completely new sport, and even a short disruption with minimal damage is sure to send the price of a barrel of crude sharply upward....(more@link)

[DS1]

10. So if Tehran is wiped out, you think Phred Phelps is going over with his God Hates Iran signs?

:D

[Chemical Bill]

12. Sounds like oil prices have to go up. n/t

[northernsoul]

15. Glad I filled up this morning

If I had money, I'd be betting long on oil futures right now as well.

[hippiechick]

13. ... here go gas prices again ...

:eyes:

[Forkboy]

16. Follow along with all your favorite disasters from the comfort of home!

http://visz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index.php?smp=&lang=eng

[KoKo]

20. Cool Site....Thanks...for us in the Global Community....

it's a "small world" after all. :D We "shares our disasters" because my disaster today...could be yours tomorrow.

[Forkboy]

42. I love the site.

There's a lot of info lying underneath that scary map. :)

[barb162]

17. ooh, nasty stuff n/t

[mnhtnbb]

18. Watching Weather Channel at lunch today they were discussing this storm

Oman has NEVER taken a hit like this. Also, possibility this thing
could turn and hit southern Iran.

[mnhtnbb]

21. Another great link showing this monster

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=townnews&blog=andrews

[uppityperson]

24. I am hoping people are moving inland. Just did a google news search

http://www.gulfnews.com/region/Oman/10129969.html

Muscat: Oman is gearing up on a war footing to cope with the possible disaster from the brewing tropical cyclonic storm - Gonu - that is expected to strike the eastern coast of the country near Masirah Island by Wednesday night or on early Thursday morning.

“A contingency plan has been drawn up to brace with the expected natural disaster,” said Inspector General of Police and Customs Lt. General Malik Bin Suleiman Al Maamari, who is also the Chairman of the National Committee for Civil Defence (NCCD).

“The topical storm has been named Gonu and it is at the moment 700 kms (377.96 nautical miles) off Masirah Island,” Ahmed Al Harthi, Director at the Department of Meteorology, told Gulf News on Monday on the sidelines of a meeting of the NCCD at the Royal Oman Police headquarters.

The coastal area in the east of Oman will have to bear the triple fury of wind, wave and rain as Gonu strikes Oman anytime after Wednesday night. “As we speak the category for Gonu has been upgraded to 5.5 from 4.5,” he warned. ...(more@ link)

Cars were swept into the river during the last major storm to hit Oman in March.

[whistle]

27. Now that is God's will!

[KoKo]

30. Are you talking about Pestilence, Plagues, Floods, Fires, Locusts?

Didn't GOD PUNISH people with all that? Seems our WHOLE PLANET IS BEING PUNISHED..if one looks at it that way.

Another way to look at it is that we've done so much damage with Overusing our Resources that our Planet is Suffering and the wind patterns change because we cut down the Rain Forests and that we burn fuels that heat up the fragile Earth Atomosphere in much of the world while "cutting down the buffer trees and vegetation that might manage to "filter" it. Then there's our Oceans (dumping grounds for Plastic Bags and Waste that doesn't "biodegrade" and there's all the other stuff we do that makes money for Wall St. and those who have "land to sell" and those who "buy the land that sold and play golf" but...LEAVES NOTHING FOR THE REST OF US ...as our PLANET DIES!

[whistle]

53. Of course, Jerry the Fall-well is doing the Macaroni dance in his grave!

[KoKo]

28. A BIG KICK for this Post...I learned so much from the Post/Links here

and it was great to get away from Politics and get back into Eccosphere about what we are all dealing with. After all...we are supposed to be "GLOBALIZED" and what better way than to look at Maps and Weather and reports from AROUND OUR GLOBE!

a BIG THANKS to those who posted such interesting links and maps here that led me to commenters from everywhere.

:toast:

[KoKo]

29. This post needs some Recommends? Can anyone help? n/t

[Gabi Hayes]

31. what's it worth to you?

a donut hole in the medicare bill?

a tacky little pamphlet (in your daddy's bottom drawer?)

[KoKo]

33. What goes on there...affects what happens here...whether it's donunt whole

of what's in my Grandpappy's bottom drawer.

[RL3AO]

32. It will probably weaken to a Cat 2 or 3 before landfall, but an incredible storm.

[KoKo]

40. If it weakens just some win and storm surge. Minor Power Outages

and the rest? :shrug:

[ncrainbowgrrl]

35. rec #5.

:kick:

[phantom power]

36. That looks like the maximally damaging track for Oman. Long coastal swipe.

[RL3AO]

37. The track continues to shift north.

And is now forecasted to brush the far eastern tip of Oman as a Cat 4 and make landfall in Iran as a Cat 2 or 3.

[Phrogman]

38. I wonder if they'll use this storm as cover for the attack?

on Iran?

[Forkboy]

44. Not very friendly OPs weather for a carrier group.

Can't even be cruise missile friendly.Not to say it's out of the realm of possibilities with this gang of thugs running things though.

This is when being in a sub is the place to be.Underneath all those rolling waves. :)

[KoKo]

48. Never p[ut anything past the "Incompetents" to take advantage of ANY situation..but, yeah,

the logistics would kind of be hard. Didn't stop them in Iraq, though. :eyes:

[12345]

39. kick, with a link to the peak oil discussion...

http://peakoil.com/fortopic29648.html

[FloridaJudy]

41. I lived through a direct hit from Wilma

Which was a Category 3 at the time: hundred year old trees uprooted and tossed around like pick-up sticks, roofs peeled off like post-it notes, oranges and grapefruits stripped from trees and turned into deadly missiles.

I don't want to know what a 4 or 5 feels like! And unlike Floridians, the folks in that path probably haven't a clue about how to prepare for a storm of that magnitude. This is going to be a massive catastrophe.

[RL3AO]

45. And add a place that has no setup for major runoff.

Its big news when they get more than a quarter inch of rain in one day in Oman and Iran.

[Forkboy]

46. I wonder if any aid groups are gearing up?

Hope so.

[KoKo]

47. Dubai and the Saudi's are kind of "flush" with the $'s , or so I hear...

but it doesn't seem it's going to be too bad. Just some wind and rain and a little storm surge.

It's been great to go into these links and see how many "weather watchers" all over the world there are, though. And...to see that Oman has wonderful mountains and an incredible coast.

The best of DU posts (imho) are where one learns and this one has been really interesting for us "Global Weather Watchers" who having lived through hurricanes are kind of always on guard and fascinated by them. :shrug:

[RL3AO]

49. If Iran has any catastrophic damage, I wonder if Bush will offer any aid?

EDIT: Damage from the storm, not us bombing them. Just wanted to make that clear. :D

[Forkboy]

52. Funny joke...in a horrifyingly real kind of way.

;)

[ddeclue]

43. Oh crap..here comes $5.00/gallon gas!

:puke:

[KoKo]

50. Cyclone forces Oman to evacuate 7,000

Cyclone forces Oman to evacuate 7,000

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

MUSCAT, Oman -- A powerful cyclone approaching the oil-rich Persian Gulf area forced the evacuation Monday of nearly 7,000 people from an Omani island, a government official said.

Cyclone Gonu, with winds of 160 miles per hour and gusts of 195 miles per hour, was headed northwest through the Indian Ocean toward Oman's east coast, said Weather Underground meteorologist Tim Roche.

Government authorities started the evacuations from Masira, an island off the east coast of Oman, said General Malik bin Suleiman al-Muamri, head of the country's civil defense.

Oil prices edged upward, though the cyclone was not necessarily the reason, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service. Oman's oil reserves and production are small compared to some of its Middle Eastern neighbors.

"I don't know if you can really attribute any of the gain to the cyclone," he said.

The government in neighboring Saudi Arabia issued a statement reassuring its people and the oil markets that it would not be seriously affected by the storm.

The storm was expected to weaken before starting to lash Oman on Tuesday, with winds of 115 mph. The most powerful part of the storm was expected to hit Oman on Thursday before moving north into southern Iran.

Even with the weaker wind speeds, Gonu would be the strongest cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula since record keeping started in 1945, Roche said.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/printer2/index.asp?ploc=t&refer=http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1107AP_Oman_Cyclone.html

[malaise]

51. Discussion coming up with Dr. Steve Lyons on Weather

Channel in a few minutes.

[KoKo]

54. CNBC...Buisness Channel now saying the Cyclone was a DOA.. that all is well in Oil Shipping Channel?

:shrug: That's what the "Weather Channel" verified. "The DRY DESERT WINDS reduced this thing...to a rainstorm which the people are capable of handling."

This isn't what I saw on OMAN NEW earlier today where they were telling their folks about "School Shelters" and where "rations are stationed." But, maybe Gulf/OMAN news is run by the BUSHIES? :eyes:

[magellan]

56. Here's the latest update

WTIO31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 
RMKS/    
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 016    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 22.6N 60.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 60.0E

more - http://205.85.40.22/jtwc/warnings/io0207web.txt

Max sustained winds of 80 KT = 92 mph. That's still a strong Cat 1, and after what we went through with Charley I wouldn't like to be under those squall lines in the right front quadrant (Pakistan and Iran), or the eye (Muscat, Oman). But it should degrade quickly as it interacts with land, cooler waters and dry air entrainment. Latest infrared: