AP/IPSOS Poll indicates total of 41% identified themselves as Independent(25%) & None of these(16%)

[Blackhatjack]

LINK http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act_dsp_pdf.cfm?name=mr070607-3tpl.pdf&id=3521

This is the critical voting block that the eventual Demomcratic Nominee MUST REACH in order to win in the General Election. (Self-identified Democrats were 36% and self-identified Repubs were 22%).

Digging deeper into the critical voting block that will likely decide the General Election in 2008, we find that during the June4-6, 2007 polling:

Measuring the intensity of the self-identification, if you add the strong lean and Moderate lean numbers, they likely equal the Democratic and Republican self-identification numbers:
Strongly lean Dem 21% Repub 13%
Moderate lean Dem 14% Repub 10%

BUT LOOK AT THOSE LIKELY MAKING UP THE Independents/None of these:

Lean Dem 18% Repub 13%
Do Not Lean(9%)



WHAT CAN WE CONCLUDE:

Presently self-identifying Democrats hold a 14 pt advantage over Repubs (36 v. 22)

Among Independents/Undecideds and Unaffiliated Voters which make up 41% of the Total
Democrats hold a 5% advantage over Repubs (18 v. 13) with 9% up for grabs.

IF REPUBS could hold their self-identified Repubs 22%
And hold their "lean Repubs" 13%
And capture the entire 'Do Not Lean' 09%
And SWING 5% of 'lean Dem' to them 05%
__________________________________________________
You get 49%

Versus DEMS holding their self-identified Dems 36%
And lose 5% of their 'lean Dems'(18-5%) 13%
And lose the entire 'Do Not Lean' 00%
__________________________________________________
You get 49%

A DEAD HEAT !!!

In all likelihood the General Election will turn on who reaches the Independent/Undecided and Unaffiliated Voters.

Caveat: THis all depends on 'turnout' not being an issue, and suppression tactics not significantly affecting the ability of the polled groups to actually vote, and there being no significant 'stay at home' protest by any group.

THis is just one poll and percentages will certainly change between now and the General Election. But it certainly points to a General Election that could be very close with relatively small shifts in voters preferences among Independents/Undecideds and Unaffiliated voters.

SIDE NOTE: Of all those polled the following self-identification should be a 'warning signal'

Very Liberal(10)/Somewhat Liberal(16) = 26%
Very Conserv(14)/Somewhat Conserv(22) = 36%

Moderate 35%

Refused 03%

IF Liberals vote DEM(26%) and Conservatives vote Repub(36%) and Refused Split Evenly,
Then DEMOCRATS WOULD HAVE TO WIN THE MODERATE VOTE BY ALMOST 2 to 1 to TIE
in the General Election.

Dems 26 Plus 1.5 Plus 22.5 = 50 (22.5/35% = 64.28%)
Repub36 Plus 1.5 Plus 12.5 = 50 (12.5/35% = 35.71%)

[LSK]

1. these polls are pretty meaningless right now

A lot can happen in the next year. What happens in September regarding Iraq might shape a lot of what eventually happens in the 08 elections.

[Hidden Stillness]

2. Independents Often are, and Usually Lean, Democratic

I believe "Independent" has actually been the majority self-reported category on political affiliation since the 1980s, and does not mean anything by itself. Polls have shown "Independent" voters side with Democrats on most issues, but don't necessarliy vote for Democratic candidates always. My Mom, a New Deal Democrat right down to her soul, was officially listed as an "Independent," just because she didn't want her actual opinions and voting patterns out there to be "gathered" by anybody for any purpose, but she was a Democrat. The fact that there are, again, (as before the '80s), more officially listed Democrats than Republicans, is very important and great.

[OHdem10]

3. Moderate means different things to different

people. If you smile nicely, the Media will call you
a Moderate.

It is absolutely wrong to say a person is just because
of Guns Gays God and Abortiaon.

Fiscal Conservatism affects every day how we live.

We should start calling the Media to task.

[Blackhatjack]

4. This is only one poll, but it shows the nonDem/Repub voters will play a big role in the outcome...

If an ideologically pure liberal Democrat is going to win the General Election, they are still going to have to garner a large percentage of the independent/undecided and unaffiliated voters to do so.

That is why you will see the eventual Democratic Nominee 'move to the center' once they have the nomination.

So the question is: who is being honest today about what their positions will be in the General Election campaign, if they become the Democratic Party Nominee? Are they telling the Democratic Party members what they want to hear, and then once nominated intend to 'move to the center?'