From
Juan Cole:
Violence has surged in Iraq since the beginning of the new security plan according to a Congressional study. There was initially, in February and March, a decrease in sectarian death squad killings (i.e. bodies in the street in cities like Baghdad), but those have mostly gone back up. The significant decrease of attacks in al-Anbar province, which appears to have to do with the chieftains of the Dulaim and other major tribes turning on the Salafi Jihadis formerly active there was offset by increased violence in Diyala and Ninevah Provinces. More suicide bombings are now taking place daily in Iraq as a whole than before the 'surge.' The population of Baghdad Province, about 1/4 of the country, is especially favorable toward militias as a tool of neighborhood self-protection, not an attitude shared by Iraqis in most of the rest of the country.
The report finds that about a third of Iraqis are now in favor of partition of the country. But that statistic is useless if we are not told more about the sample. Some 20% of Iraqis are Kurds, and almost all of them want to secede. If it is a weighted sample with strong Kurdish participation, then it would suggest that few Arab Iraqis favor partition, which is what my guess would be.
One caveat is that studies like this often focus on major attacks, especially bombings, which had some degree of success. But the Lancet study of 1800 households found that 86% of violent deaths come from people just being shot down, and that this sort of violence is common throughout the country, not just in select provinces. Not all of it is political in character (there are Mafia turf wars, tribal feuds, etc., which go along with having a failed state such as that in Iraq).
About a third of violent deaths came from US military activities. Since the US has begun bombing Iraqi cities again as part of the 'surge,' deaths from aerial strikes have certainly risen, but these probably are not even counted in the Congressional study.
Some 500 Iraqis are probably being killed a day in such daily violence, a fraction of the deaths reported by US wire services, though most of these deaths are not specifically "insurgent-" or "politically" derived. (emphasis added)