Petraeus Says Conditions Won't Justify Troop DecreaseChallenges' in Iraq Will Not Be Resolved in One or Two Years, Top Commander Says
Both Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, his diplomatic counterpart in Baghdad, said a key report they will deliver to Washington in September will also include what Crocker called "an assessment of what the consequences might be if we pursue other directions." Noting the "unhelpful roles" being played by Iran and Syria in Iraq, Crocker said, "We've got to consider what could happen."
Separate comments by Petraeus on "Fox News Sunday" and Crocker on NBC's "Meet the Press," were an indication of the administration's evolving strategy for confronting rising congressional demands to begin planning troop withdrawals. In addition to warning about the possible regional consequences of withdrawal, both men emphasized a "mixed" picture on the ground that cited successes while acknowledging the difficulty of the task ahead.
Claiming steady, albeit slow, military and political progress, Petraeus said the "many, many challenges" would not be resolved "in a year or even two years." Similar counterinsurgency operations, he said, citing Britain's experience in Northern Ireland, "have gone at least nine or 10 years."
Petraeus said he and Crocker would be making "some recommendations on the way ahead" to Congress, and that it was "realistic" to assume "some form of long-term security arrangement" with Iraq.
Democrats failed last month to impose a withdrawal timetable in war-funding legislation.
But the enacted measure mandated assessments of military, political and economic progress from Petraeus and Crocker--rather than from Washington-based administration and military officials--by Sept. 15. Much will depend on their personal credibility.In announcing his new strategy last January, Bush said the troop increase would diminish sectarian violence in Baghdad and break Sunni insurgent control in Anbar province, a stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq. The ensuing calm, the administration said, would give the Shiite-dominated Maliki government time and space to reconcile with the minority Sunni and Kurdish communities and build a unified administration that all Iraqis--including many now involved in violence--would support.
But since the deployment of five new U.S. combat brigades began in early spring, the overall level of violence has not abated and in some respects has increased, according to a Pentagon report issued last week. Little progress has been reported in achieving the political benchmarks spelled out in the funding legislations--those mentioned by McConnell as well as an overall revision of the Iraqi constitution to provide a better balance of regional and sectarian factions in the government.
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