FEMA Anticipated Katrina's Destruction, new report shows.

[illinoisprogressive]

A major report published Wednesday by a Washington, DC-based watchdog shows that the Federal Emergency Management Agency anticipated the destruction that would result from a major hurricane striking New Orleans, yet failed to follow through on its own internal warnings.

"FEMA’s disaster planning was based on a set of predictions that proved to be remarkably accurate. In 2000-2001, FEMA looked at a population of New Orleans that was over 1.3 million people and predicted that when a catastrophic hurricane struck, the city would be flooded with 14-17 feet of water. One million people would evacuate and 250-350,000 people would be trapped in the city," according to the report, The Best Laid Plans: The Story of How the Government Ignored Its Own Gulf Coast Hurricane Plans.

The report, published by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, is based on 7,500 documents that were released to the group by the Department of Homeland Security in whole or in part. A key documents was the 'Southeast Louisiana Catastrophic Hurricane Plan,' which CREW called "strikingly comprehensive."

http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Group_shows_FEMA_anticipated_Katrinas_destruction_0627.html

[porphyrian]

1. So, they let the levies fail and their inept response happen, then. - n/t

[Nikki Stone1]

2. LIHOP?

:tinfoilhat:

[Mabus]

5. Is there a difference between LIHOP and just not giving a shit?

There was more money to be made in going to war in Iraq for the contractors and cronies. It's not so much that they let it happen as much as they didn't think it would happen on their watch. After all, why prepare for something that may not happen when you can make money on something you can make happen?

[Kagemusha]

3. UGH... "from a major hurricane" does not = "Katrina"

A more accurate headline would read, "FEMA Anticipated New Orleans' Devastation" by *a* major hurricane, irrespective of the fact that *this* particular major hurricane was the lucky one to get the honor.

Now readers are going to yell "LIHOP" and say, aha, see, Bush knew Katrina was going to cause exactly the destruction that arose! ...Which is not the point, and not the subject of this aticle, even if those things were independently true.

[Nikki Stone1]

4. Yep. Puttin on the tinfoil.....

:tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat: :tinfoilhat:

[pitohui]

13. well obviously no one expects them to be psychics, be reasonable

the hurricane "pam" study was based on a worst case scenario, worse than katrina in terms of where it hit and wind speed, but if you notice that it projects only 60 % of the population able to evacuate by automobile -- hence the enormous projected casualties

the state gov'ts fixed this, contra flow was fine tuned and improved, and 80% of the population was able to evacuate by car -- well above projections

i don't think the study was a waste of time because they couldn't look in the future and name katrina by name, that's just silliness, i think it a pity that the FEDERAL GOV"T didn't step up and look for ways to learn from this projection

if the feds had looked at the projections and supplied sufficient helicopters, national guard troops, supplies, etc. IN ADVANCE, there's no doubt that casualties would have been fewer, yes, the people who drowned would still have drowned, however people on rooftops or at superdome who later died of dehydration/exposure would NOT have died

we pay enough taxes and refine enough oil that the feds should have treated us better than this, that's the take home

not petty squabbling about whether a projection could foresee exactly when and how such a storm might strike, i don't expect anyone to have a crystal ball several years in advance of an event, we are doing well to know where they will hit 72 hours in advance

[DS1]

6. Discovery Channel had been doing shows about how utterly screwed NO was

in the case of a direct hit. For years. Nobody listened.

[pitohui]

9. who's nobody, plenty of people listened, for example the governors

the governors of mississippi and louisiana worked together to create a countra-flow to allow people to evacuate more efficiently by car, result -- more people evacuated to safety by car for katrina than in any previous evacuation or in any previous projection -- it was thought only 60% could evacuate safely by car without crowding the roads, 80% evacuated by car and the traffic moved safely

compare to evacuations by car in the houston area or in southern florida, where a certain number of people are going to be trapped in weather and DIE because they don't have good evacuation plans for all the traffic

i'm tired of hearing "nobody" listened, the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DIDN"T LISTEN, the people listened and those who could help themselves did so, the states listened and did what they could, and so on

this is squarely on the heads of the federal gov't and nobody else

[Morgana LaFey]

24. yes, and let's not forget -- it wasn't the storm but the levees

that caused the flooding. The storm veered ever so slightly to the right (east) and missed the doomsday scenario. But then there was that levee problem. That was actually some hours later.

[yardwork]

11. A lot of us listened. We knew what would happen in the days leading up to the storm.

The Bush administration didn't listen, or didn't care, or deliberately chose not to respond, or were simply too incompetent to respond. effectively. Anyway, now New Orleans is being sold off to wealthy white people to redevelop.

[pitohui]

14. ha, you didn't see the newspaper this sunday did ya?

real estate prices are collapsing, for some reason, "wealthy white people" don't want to buy in an area of uncertain safety

if there are any "wealthy white people" who want my house, come on down! but i'm not holding my breath

this was always a fantasy that the rich people were going to come and save us, trump was nothing but talk, pitt and jolie are pretty much moved out by now or so i've heard, and the other wealthy white people who were going to come...where are they?

[yardwork]

15. I'm sorry. I didn't mean to be insensitive or offensive.

What has happened to New Orleans is terrible, inexcusable, and I didn't mean to sound as if I were making light of it. I do think that investors are deliberately allowing the property values to fall, and then a few people (cronies of Dick Cheney and that type) will make profits off everyone else's misfortune.

[pitohui]

18. what would they want it for? seriously?

supposedly we're going to be underwater in a couple of decades, so why would anyone scheme to get it, seems they would scheme to get something on higher ground if you ask me

to my mind the reason property values are falling is simple -- can't buy homeowner's insurance at a reasonable price any more -- if people can't insure their home, they can't afford to buy it in the first place


no offense taken, just offering my own opinion, no doubt a gloomy one

[yardwork]

20. I see your point. The Outerbanks in North Carolina will also be underwater.

People in this state still argue about development on the coast. They don't seem to get the fact that there won't be a coast in twenty years. Even the most conservative estimates put the Outerbanks underwater by then. And the new coastline won't be a nice smooth beach leading down to the waves, either. It will be rocky, jagged cliffs dropping into the water.

[helderheid]

7. rec 3 - get this on the greatest

:mad:

[Richard Steele]

10. DONE! nm

[KamaAina]

8. Anyone who read the National Weather Service bulletin would have had a clue

Good thing Santorectum wasn't able to croak the NWS! This one bulletin may have saved tens of thousands of lives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_New_Orleans_region#Bulletin_text

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

Either FEMA somehow missed this particular memo, or they're a bunch of :ducne: :dunce: :dunce: s. Take your pick. :grr:

[Mabus]

12. I remember the postings that night

They included the weather advisories. Someone even posted a map of where the oil rigs and refineries were in the Gulf that showed Katrina was heading right for them. I remember waking my husband around midnight and told him New Orleans was going to get hit hard because of posts I saw on DU. Even I knew the country would feel the effects from Katrina so I called my relatives the next morning and told them to expect higher gas and food prices within the next few days.

As for them missing the memo, it was August and the government (such as it is) was on stand-by while Chimpy was on vacation. The only work he did was fundraisers.

[pitohui]

16. the report was from 2000-2001, and i don't think this is a new story, i knew about it

the point isn't that katrina would be bad, everyone knew katrina would be bad, the point is that preps could have been in progress for years in advance

i don't expect the gov't to wake up at 11 a.m. hours after the first ever mandatory evacuation of new orleans has been ordered and say, "huh, wonder if there's a problem, i'll check the weather channel" -- i expect them to be more on top of things than that

what i expect them to do is to be on the ball, pre-emptively, the report pointed out huge problems, there would be an obvious need for national guard, helicopters, medical supplies, food, water, in place long before aug. 28, 2005! there should have drills, there should have been staging and planning in advance, but FEMA couldn't be arsed is the jist of it, they knew it would happen one summer or another summer but couldn't be bothered to do any advance planning

that's the point of this scandal to my mind, i expect * to play guitar and eat cake while people are dying, this is the goat book boy after all, he is fucking useless -- however, it is not the job of FEMA to sit on their hands, for years, knowing what is coming and doing fuck all to get ready

and 2004 in florida was pretty bad too, could have been a lot worse, lots of holes were showing in the system, but FEMA just didn't want to learn and adapt

that's what peeves me off, they literally had years and years to update their preparations, and all they did was scream that they were almost bankrupt, in 2003 FEMA in june was whining that they were running out of money! there were many opportunities to gain attention and tax dollars if they had been more pro-active, such as allison, the 10th anniversary of andrew, the four hurricanes slamming florida, etc.

[Divernan]

28. Has anyone ever explained to you how the administrative branch of govt. functions?

FEMA is under the direct control of the PRESIDENT. Bush decided to gut FEMA, and put Joe Albaugh in charge to do that. FEMA functioned very well under Clinton and James Witt. Federal employees are not allowed to be "pro-active"(going outside the chain of command, or to the media), particularly under W. Have you noticed what happened to whistle blowers under this administration and this Supreme Court? Have you noticed the failure of MSM to report stories on how Bush et al have canibalized the federal agencies? The people who were provided with that FEMA study and who COULD have demanded repair of the levees and other preparations were the governors and congressmen. But hey, if they were Republican, they just had private understandings with Bush, Cheney, Rove. Then there was the Army Corps of Engineers - no effective whistle blowers there, either.

After those three hurricanes hit Florida, a red state, Bush ordered FEMA to walk away from all other disasters they were working on anywhere in the country and go to Florida. They were further ordered to start dispensing fat checks to everyone requesting assistance IMMEDIATELY, and ordered NOT to follow their normal procedures to make sure nobody was embezzling money. Why? Because there was a presidential election coming up. They were literally told, either shovel that money out,no questions asked, or the agency will be disbanded. FEMA was told to plan on a special seven year presence in Florida to handle recovery. Once the election was over, and also when Jeb was not up for reelection, the offices were pretty much closed down.

And exactly how is a federal agency supposed to function effectively, when it's personnel and budget have been decimated? About all they can do is "scream" to the Congress and the media. You apparently have some unique knowledge of how government employees can do a damn thing if their commander in chief does not authorize it.

You say, "FEMA didn't want to learn and adapt." You couldn't be more wrong. FEMA was functioning quite well under Clinton. Bush/Albaugh/Chertoff/Brown gutted the agency, forced out the professional civil servants (with the most institutional knowledge and established professional relations with state and local officials) and BLOCKED FEMA employees from doing what they were trained to do. The "holes in the system" were the direct results of Bush's planned destruction of the agency. As in ALL federal agencies, the career civil servants who have worked effectively under both Republican and Democratic administrations - until W - are just hanging on till W leaves, and looking forward to a Dem. administration when they can begin to repair Bush's lethal legacy.

In addition to the cuts in personnel and budget, all those inexperienced Republicans Bush pushed in at mid and top level management, replacing the extremely competent and experienced civil servants, and who couldn't find their ass with both hands - also lowered the performance level of the agency.

[intheflow]

22. It was those warnings that inspired me to action on Katrina.

Wrapping up my almost two years doing post-Katrina relief/recovery work in Mississippi. Just another 10-15 years to go until recovery is complete!
:sarcasm:

Actually, that's just the physical recovery. Trauma experts say that regions don't recovery psychologically for 100 years. Because even if you a baby was born during the storm or soon after, Katrina will affect that person's life for the rest of their lives, often in ways that cannot be predicted.

[Posteritatis]

17. *I* anticipated that. What's their excuse for not noticing more obviously? (nt)

[pitohui]

19. FEMA's excuse? apparently they were underfunded

i don't recall all the details any more, but pretty much from the day * got into office and esp. after 911, FEMA was complaining that they were on the verge of bankruptcy and didn't have funds to do this, didn't have funds to do that

there's some accounting crap that was involved with putting them together with DHS but i don't know the details, apparently disasters got the short shift after 911

[Divernan]

26. Here' REAL background on how Bush fucked over FEMA from day one!

Bush has fucked with FEMA from day one of his administration - in fact, even before he took office, when he decided to name his former Texas chief of staff/campaign manager, Joe Albaugh, as Secretary of FEMA (back before 9/11 - when the head of FEMA enjoyed Cabinet level status).

Albaugh's "brief" was to gut and destroy FEMA, because the GOP attitude was, "Hey, if you don't have enough insurance and personal wealth to survive a disaster, that's your personal problem, and not the government's."

Albaugh was a vicious prick from the day he showed up at FEMA, cursing out and humiliating the FEMA professionals from the top down. He drove out hundreds and hundreds of professionals with invaluable institutional knowledge of how to work with state agencies and how to anticipate/prepare/mitigate etc., all kinds of natural disasters and epidemics. People took early retirement and/or went to jobs with state or private relief agencies. These professionals were not replaced. In addition to the normal amount of political appointees (a handful) which all presidents put in place, Bush placed many political types (such as inexperienced relatives of big donors) into several levels of upper and middle level management. When Katrina hit, there were 900 unfilled job slots in D.C. headquarters alone, not to mention unfilled job slots in the regional branches. Budget moneys and job slots which should have gone to FEMA, were switched over to the black hole known as the Department of Homeland Security.

Katrina was the biggest disaster ever to hit the U.S., and FEMA was already underfunded and understaffed to deal with run-of-the-mill disasters. Nevertheless, as Katrina approached, the remaining, beleaguered FEMA civil servants (as opposed to Bush's people) did as they always do in the face of an upcoming disaster. All of the regional staffs around the country (7 regions) packed up and were ready to head for NOLA the week BEFORE THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL. All they needed was the expected go-ahead from the head of FEMA (Brown). Turns out Brown was told by Chertoff NOT to allow the staff to go to NOLA. Chertoff held off on that approval until 2 days after the hurricane hit.

You know, I expect posters on DU to be politically astute. How can anyone here NOT be aware that Bush has gutted every single federal agency under his control, so that the GOP can say, "See, government doesn't work - we have to privatise." It has come to light with FEMA because the MSM couldn't keep that agency's failures out of the news. But believe me, the same thing has happened at EPA,NOAA, Treasury, Education, - all of the agencies.

People here, sitting in the comfort of their homes and offices have one helluva great time trashing FEMA. (not so much on this thread as on another concurrent one.) Meanwhile, my FEMA friends are living under exhausting, primitive conditions at Greensburg, Kansas, starting out working 15 hours a day, 7 days a week, and having to sleep in tents in the Kansas summer heat. Now they are down to "only" working six days a week, 12 hours a day. I'd sure like to ever read on DU, some appreciation for the majority of FEMA workers - as if anyone here could appreciate the physical and psychological stress of working under the conditions they face.

[yardwork]

27. Bush did the same thing to Health and Human Services.

I personally witnessed it. Career public servants who had worked hard for decades - through Republican and Democratic administrations - were tossed out on their ears or forced into retirement, and replaced by asshole ideologues.

Bush attempted to destroy the federal government. He appears to have done enormous damage.

[The Backlash Cometh]

21. It's not new. Even after Katrina they said that FEMA anticipated three

major weak spots in the U.S.: One was a terrorist attack in N.Y.; another involves a major earthquake probably in San Francisco, and the third involved a hurricane and the bowl effect in New Orleans.

[Pale Blue Dot]

23. Well, at least now that the Democrats are in charge, this will be investigated, right?

Who's in charge of investigating that again?

:grr:

[HCE SuiGeneris]

25. Why plan and then disregard the plan? Unless of course you have some

twisted, f'd up reason to allow the city to languish. :mad: