http://www.counterpunch.org/cohn09252007.htmlThe Sunday Telegraph reported, "A strike will probably follow a gradual escalation. Over the next few weeks and months the U.S. will build tensions and evidence around Iranian activities in Iraq . . . Under the theory--which is gaining credence in Washington security circles--U.S. action would provoke a major Iranian response, perhaps in the form of moves to cut off Gulf oil supplies, providing a trigger for air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities and even its armed forces."
Steve Clemons likewise wrote on Salon that David Wurmser, a member of Cheney's national security staff, allegedly discussed convincing Israel to launch a low-yield cruise missile strike against the Natanz nuclear reactor in Iran, to "hopefully" prompt a military reaction by Iran against U.S. forces in Iraq and the Gulf.
Former CIA counter-terrorism chief Vincent Cannistrano, now a security analyst, stated, "The decision to attack was made some time ago. It will be in two stages. If a smoking gun is found in terms of Iranian interference in Iraq, the U.S. will retaliate on a tactical level, and they will strike against military targets. The second part of this is: Bush has made the decision to launch a strategic attack against Iranian nuclear facilities, although not before next year. He has been lining up some Sunni countries for tacit support for his actions."
Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, concurs. "Washington is seriously reviewing plans to bomb not just nuclear sites, but oil sites, military sites and even leadership targets. The talk is of multiple targets," he said. "In Washington there is very serious discussion that this is a window that has to be looked at seriously because there is only six months to 'do something about Iran' before it will be looked at as a purely political issue."
The United Nations' chief nuclear weapons inspector, Mohamed ElBaradei, warned against an "out of control" drift to war with Iran. "I would not talk about any use of force," he said. "There are rules on how to use force, and I would hope that everybody would have gotten the lesson after the Iraq situation, where 700,000 innocent civilians have lost their lives on the suspicion that a country has nuclear weapons." The UN Charter only permits the use of force in self-defense or with the blessing of the Security Council. "Many of the potential targets are in populated places, endangering civilians both from errant bombs and the possible dispersal of radioactive material," cautioned Peter Galbraith in the New York Review of Books. The failure to protect civilians violates the Geneva Conventions.
Yet Bush continues his march to war. In an end run around the UN Security Council, "Washington and its allies are developing a parallel track to the UN effort in the event that a third resolution ends up only modestly increasing pressure on Iran," according to the Washington Post. "We'll continue on the UN track, but we also have the track of the U.S.-E.U.," a State Department official said.