Edwards Could Cripple Clinton, Obama - By E. J. Dionne

[WillyT]

<snip>

NASHUA, N.H. -- In the back of a crowded room at Daniel Webster College here, Joe Trippi, John Edwards' campaign manager, watches closely as his candidate delivers a series of passionately populist orations, summed up by his declaration that "the few are controlling this democracy for the many."

Next to Trippi, his colleague Glen Pearcy tends a camera recording every word that the tie-less, bluejeans-clad Edwards speaks for possible use in future television commercials. Standing before a large American flag, the former North Carolina senator insists that the country shouldn't "trade a crowd of corporate Republicans for a crowd of corporate Democrats."

As the news about the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination focuses on the increasingly bitter confrontation between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Edwards is fighting for survival. He knows his fate hinges on a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses that are now less than a month away. He will be out of the race if he runs third.

If Edwards fades, supporters of all three candidates agree that his backers are more likely to drift to Obama than to Clinton. Yet if Edwards gains ground, he could push either Clinton or Obama into third place -- crippling one of them.

The Iowa polls suggest that this is Obama's time. Over the weekend, The Des Moines Register released a survey showing the Illinois senator with 28 percent to Clinton's 25 percent and Edwards' 23 percent. Obama was up six points from the paper's last poll, conducted in October. Clinton was down four, and Edwards held steady. A Pew/Associated Press poll released Monday still put Clinton on top, but interviewing for the survey began in early November.

The Clinton camp is clearly worried and the candidate herself is now taking Obama on personally. Addressing reporters in Iowa on Sunday, she spoke of "a big difference between our courage and our convictions, what we believe and what we're willing to fight for."

Standing in the way of a straight Obama-Clinton struggle is Edwards.

He has been campaigning in Iowa since 2003, nearly won the caucuses over John Kerry four years ago, and stubbornly remains within easy striking distance of the front-runners. The Edwards campaign has a theory of how he can beat both of them.

<snip>

More: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/edwards_could_cripple_clinton.html

This could get REAL interesting.

[Cha]

1. I like the way Edwards is

talking about the corporate dems.. It's so bizarre how most of the candidates go out and make campaign promises to the People but fugeddaboudit when they take over..and how long has this been going on?

hillary seems to be big on rhetoric and small on what she's actually willing to fight for.

[Reno.Muse]

2. I like that about him too ...

[Manifestor_of_Light]

3. I have some of Bill's old 1992 campaign literature.

That says things like "Fighting for the Forgotten Middle Class".

If he did that, I did not see it. NAFTA anyone???


HUH????? :banghead:

[Cha]

7. Precisely! Edwards seems

like he would actually Just Do It..but, alas..the corporations have their daggers out for him and they won't let him get anywhere near our White House.

[cali]

17. I see no reason to believe that

not just in light of his corporate pleasing Senate record, but because of his $500,000 consultant gig with the worst of the worst; a hedge fund. And that was only 2 years ago.

[bobbolink]

24. WE, the People ought to actually keep track of these things, and

keep reporting on promises fulfilled, and promises ignored.

Feet to fire, if we want to keep this country!

How hard would it be to put together a strong citizens group?

[bellasgrams]

6. What is it that she's unwilling to fight for?

I see her as someone who will fight for what is right. Remember what she has been through. If she wasn't a fighter she wouldn't be running.

[Cha]

9. She's fighting for

the corporations and keeping our Soldiers in Iraq. She hasn't fought for us here in New York on anything that we pleaded with her to vote NO on..it was all about how it would look on her resume to run for president and then a big OOOOPPPPPPSSSSSS! The War On Iraq didn't go as planned and sorry a lot of people were killed by bombs but ol' hillary looks tough as shit on National fucking homeland Security.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

4. I have said this before.

if not Dennis, then John is my next choice.

[southerncrone]

36. Same here.

:pals:

[DaLittle Kitty]

53. John Edwards Looking Good on the second choice Column for the Iowa Caucuses.

Edwards is going to take a lot of people into the fold in Iowa related to those candidates not receiving the required minimum of 15%. That should take him over the top in Iowa. Me thinks we are looking good in Iowa... lets encourage our fellow Americans in Iowa to VOTE FOR John Edwards.:bounce:

[saracat]

5. Edwards rocks! He will deliver and the puditry are about to be shocked!

[Blackhatjack]

8. lWhat a Prescient Column.... Edwards is positioning himself for victory.

Keep in mind that Iowans who attend the caucuses have been bombarded for months with Obama and Clinton TV/Media ads.

No matter what anybody tells you, there is always a 'ceiling' of voters you will reach by tv/media ads. Once you hit it, there won't be any significant gains.

Edwards is just starting his tv/media ads, and he is well known throughout Iowa.

THe key as this article put it is how 'soft' are the Obama and Hillary supporters?

The caucus process could very well direct those soft supporters to Edwards.

This election is up for grabs.

[Quixote1818]

10. I like Edwards a lot more this time around than 4 years ago

He is more in line with the things that are important to me.

[K8-EEE]

11. Yeah......cuz Kerry's not in charge!

I guess when you're in the #2 spot you need to defer but I could tell last election JE was PISSED that Kerry caved with the concession....

[karynnj]

31. What about the JRE of the 2004 PRIMARIES?

you know the one who was the most conservative of the lot and the one other than Leiberman who was a cheerleader for the war in the pre-primaries and was booed for it.

The fact is we now have Edwards 3.0 - there was Edwards 1.0 the conservative hawkish Senator from NC.

The story that Edwards fought conceding is not true. He did read a statement on not conceding on Tuesday night representing the campaign. The next days as the numbers became lower and none of the Ohio lawyers could make a case that would give tham the needed votes, Kerry conceded in the second slowest concession.

Did you hear any Edwards comments on voter suppression in 2005? Election fraud? Has he ever said in a MSM interview that he would have challenged the election? Has he ever said what he would use as a case? Channeling the thoughts of random Ohio voters would be unlikely to sway the jurors.

[Blackhatjack]

49. There are so many inaccuracies in your post, hardly know where to begin...

First, Edwards was never a 'conservative hawkish Senator from NC'. You must have him confused with the incumbent Sen. Lauch Faircloth who fulfilled that role as a Jesse Helms machine backed Republican.

Second, the fact that Edwards has not publicly addressed his confrontation with Kerry over not conceding does not mean it did not happen. I know several people close to the campaign who know the truth, and Edwards did not want to concede and pleaded for them to uphold their promise to make sure every vote was counted.

There is nothing to be gained from publicly criticizing Kerry who selected Edwards as his running mate. But it has been well established that once Edwards signed on as the VP running mate, all the decisions were made by Kerry strategists.

You can bet that if Edwards is the Democratic Nominee he will not back down if there is evidence of voter/election fraud. It will be his decision this time. And those who have gone up against him in the past have commented on how he will doggedly pursue what he believes is right even though others would have taken the sure money and folded.

[2hip]

12. Edwards’ many advantages

1 - highly organized team on the ground in Iowa
2 - his Iowa supporters have more prior caucus experience in comparison to the other candidates' supporters and are more likely to show up and participate
3 - he’s the #1 second-choice of caucus participants whose first-choice candidates aren’t viable

Edwards and Obama are likely to be the Top Two when the Iowa dust settles. This is exactly what Edwards needs for some media traction to get his message out there and past the Clinton/Obama verbal food fight.

[Nutmegger]

13. Welcome to DU!!!

:toast:

[2hip]

14. Thanks!

I thought it would be appropriate for my very first post here to reveal myself as an Edwards supporter. Full disclosure and all...

[momster]

23. Welcome to DU

I started out for Obama but I've come to embrace JE. I could see Obama as his running mate, though.

[saltpoint]

22. A welcome to DU. You'll bump into a lot of good folks here.

Edwards does have several advantages and Dionne's column and your post set them squarely on the table.

I think Joe Biden may even surge from behind and place in the top three, but I think your analysis on Edwards and Obama as contenders is right on.

Welcome.

[adnelson60087]

43. Excellent analysis and I agree completely

that is the mostly scenario to play out over the next few weeks. The Richardson and Biden supporters, et al, are more likely to go with Edwards than either Barack or Hillary. I really do think Hillary's support is the softest of the Big 3 in terms of WHY people support her. Obama is the "golden boy" but I think we all see his lack of big-time political activity. We need a fighter, and Edwards is the man for that.

[deacon]

15. Let's hope so. Edwards '08 n/t

[Asgaya Dihi]

16. Mandated health insurance?

I've always liked the way Edwards talks about the two Americas and how we've got some problems to work on but I find this troubling, from the article quoted above.

Edwards said he shares Clinton's view that universal health coverage would be impossible without a mandate on individuals to purchase insurance. Obama's health plan contains no such mandate.

According to a chart I read the other night the bottom 40% of US citizens collectively own just 0.2% of the nations wealth, many are probably among the uninsured. How the hell is telling those people that they are now mandated by law to buy something they couldn't afford in the first place going to change anything? Seems to me the end result would be to just create another "criminal" class out of the poor who are making hard choices between food and rent already, give us a reason to say it's their own damned fault.

I'd love to find that statement is wrong, be badly disappointed in him if it isn't.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

29. I believe his plan give a choice - buy ins. from the big companies or join Medicare-for-all.

He's not mandating that you have to buy insurance like Clinton is.

[karynnj]

32. Yes he is

Both Clinton and Edwards require people to have insurance. If you qualify for medicaid or medicare, then you can get it that way. When he speaks of opening up medicare to others as a choice, they have to pay for it.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

42. right from his website, will be required AFTER...

The Edwards Plan Will:

Require businesses and other employers to either cover their employees or help finance their health insurance.
Make insurance affordable by creating new tax credits, expanding Medicaid and SCHIP, reforming insurance laws, and taking innovative steps to contain health care costs.
Create regional Health Care Markets purchasing pools to give every American the bargaining power to purchase an affordable, high-quality health plan, increase choices among insurance plans, and cut costs for businesses offering insurance.
Once these steps have been taken, require all American residents to get insurance.

Details...
Third: New Health Care Markets. The U.S. government will help states and groups of states create regional Health Care Markets, non-profit purchasing pools that offer a choice of competing insurance plans. At least one plan would be a public program based upon Medicare. All plans will include comprehensive benefits, including full mental health benefits. Families and businesses could choose to supplement their coverage with additional benefits. The markets will be available to everyone who does not get comparable insurance from their jobs or a public program and to employers that choose to join rather than offer their own insurance plans. The benefits of Health Care Markets include:

Freedom and Security: Health Care Markets will give participants a choice among affordable, quality plans. Americans can keep Health Care Market plans when they change or lose their jobs, start new businesses, or take time off for caregiving.

Choice between Public and Private Insurers: Health Care Markets will offer a choice between private insurers and a public insurance plan modeled after Medicare, but separate and apart from it. Families and individuals will choose the plan that works best for them. This American solution will reward the sector that offers the best care at the best price. Over time, the system may evolve toward a single-payer approach if individuals and businesses prefer the public plan.

Promoting Affordable Care: Health Care Markets will negotiate low premiums through their economies of scale so they can get a better deal than individuals and many businesses can get on their own. Health Care Markets will also hold down administrative costs by reducing the need for underwriting and marketing activities (two-thirds of private insurers' overhead), centrally collecting premiums, and exercising leadership to reduce costs on billing practices, claims processing, and electronic medical records. Finally, they will be able to work with insurers to adopt cost-effective approaches to health care like preventive care and to collect the data necessary to drive quality improvement.

Reducing Burdens for Businesses: By assuming the administrative role of negotiating benefit plans with insurers and collecting premiums, Health Care Markets will minimize administrative burdens for participating businesses and other employers. Businesses that opt into the markets will only have to make financial contributions to the cost of covering their employees through markets, similar to their role in Social Security and Medicare.

Finally: Individual Responsibility. Once insurance is affordable, everyone will be expected to take responsibility for themselves and their families by obtaining health coverage. Some Americans will obtain coverage from public programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and SCHIP and others will get coverage through their jobs. Other families can buy insurance through the regional Health Care Markets. Special exemptions will be available in cases of extreme financial hardship or religious beliefs.

http://johnedwards.com/issues/health-care/health-care-fact-sheet/


Frankly, this sounds great to me. :shrug:

[karynnj]

47. Thanks for the post - my point was that

if you are not low income and your employer does not pay for it - you will. (I do see that he says employers will have to help if they don't provide insurance - assuming he can pass this, this will lead employers to pay less in salary to compensate - the total remuneration for employees without health care is unlikely to increase by the cost of healthcare.

[bobbolink]

37. Everybody In, Nobody Out.......Remember that?

A favorite line of Kucinich...

Well, it's correct.

The ones who would "opt out" are the younger, and therefore, the healthier. The way to keep the costs even is to have the largest pool.

Actually, Edwards is striving towards what HR676 is about.... he's just giving people the "choice". But, when they see how much less it will be to have, say, the same as Medicare, or what the Congress has, guess what they will end up choosing.

It's a different means to get to the same end.

[cynthia]

41. mandated health insurance is not much different from mandated car insurance

If you want to have a car, you are required (at least in every state I've lived in) to have auto insurance. Same with owning a home, at least if you have a mortgage, you have to have homeowner's insurance.

You have to have everyone insured, otherwise the costs would be too high because the healthy would not participate.

With John's plan, I see that people will inevitably choose Medicare, even if they have to pay to get it if they don't qualify for it, because the overhead is so low that it will beat out private insurance.

I'd like to see all those paper pushers who now work for medical insurance companies to be put out of work, and have them using their talents elsewhere to help make this country a better place. Maybe some of them will want to go to school and become nurses and doctors and continue working to promote health. I keep hearing that we don't have enough nurses.

[mtnester]

18. I have been undecided until recently, and one by one I have

eliminated whom I will vote for. Mr. Kucinich lost my vote last week (unfortunately), Mrs. Clinton had lost my vote LONG ago (on an omnibus bill way back that involved a stupid unnecessary vote of yes on a compromise that said "we Republicans promise if you vote for this, we will set aside a few hours in April to discuss your views publicly on hospitals refusing to issue the morning after pill to rape victims, but if you vote yes on a bill that says we do not have to force them to do it, we will let you speak about it in 4 months." THAT omnibus bill..I swore right then and there I would not vote for her. (The only way I would were if she was the nominee, then I would have no choice because my country is more important). And Mr. Obama lost my vote when he announced, because I was angry that he promised to finish his term if he was elected and then boom!..he did not.

SO Edward's it is by default....the candidate I want to run will not, so I had to make a choice rather than hold out false hope. At least I HOPE he is in the race when Ohio's turn for primaries rolls around.

[Disturbed]

19. John Edwards has a much better chance of winning the

General than either Sen. Clinton or Sen Obama.

[Clark2008]

51. Not much of one.

[bobbolink]

38. I don't think you will be disappointed.

I was a Kucitizen in '04, until Dennis dropped poverty from his campaign. Edwards was too conservative for me.

THEN... he took up poverty in such a strong way, and since that is the reality of my life, that was very important to me.

Along the way, I've seen just how much Edwards has grown, and what he really stands for, and now I support him with NO RESERVATIONS! I truly think he has our best interests at heart.

He's the only one speaking up consistently against the corporations. That has me a bit concerned for his safety, but.... it's what we so desperately need!

[symbolman]

20. interesting

I got to follow them all during the last run, and got to catch Edwards up close a few times, and was very impressed.. He carries a heavy "Kennedy-esque" feel, and I think a lot of 50+ year olds may be pining away for a New Camelot, especially after these dark days of Hyper Nixxon..

He just may come from behind and blow off their doors, remember, he's a White Guy as well, and this country is still heavily racist.. We ain't France by a long shot.. Not that I don't respect Obama, but America may be ready for a Black Veep, the Timing is about right on that..

We might let a Woman Rule, but it ain't gonna be Hillary, I'm a total Dem for my whole life, and that person scares the shit out of me :)

Dione ain't no fool, that's for sure..

[saltpoint]

21. Prefer Edwards to win Iowa, but whatever the actual outcome, this cycle is

going to be a barnburner.

My guess is that a lot of us will have the news on that night to see how it shakes out.

[bobbolink]

25. I read this in the paper today, and was thinking that it might not be so bad

if that literally happened.

:evilgrin:

[Life Long Dem]

26. I think Edwards will win Iowa.

That is if Clinton and Obama are playing fair. I hear things about busing in students who don't live in the state. They cannot be registered outside the state which would be illegal. They can only be registered in one location.

[Mister Ed]

27. "He will be out of the race if he runs third"???

Good lord, how can it be that an early, non-binding straw poll in just one of the fifty states can largely decide our nominee? Can that really be healthy for the party?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. $$$ and No.

In that order.

[Blackhatjack]

28. It matters how close the vote is for JRE & BO, but if HRC comes in 3rd that would be bad for her...

Edwards could finish 2nd or maybe even 3rd and still go on with a legitimate chance to win the Nomination, but 2nd would have to be close and 3rd would have to be very close to have a good chance of competing in N.H.

However, after being the reported poll leader for so long among Democrats nationally, a 3rd place finish for HRC could be real trouble for her. IT would signal more than just vulerability. It would signal that she has a fundamental problem, and she would be following the Dean track heading to N.H.

I like Obama as a good second choice, but it is simply unlikely that he will sweep the Nomination without something being revealed from the opposition research files which will damage his chances. If it does not come out in the primaries, I would be worried that it will emerge during the General Election. If there is anything damaging I hope it comes out in the primaries and he deals with it effectively, so that if he is the Democratic Nominee it will dampen the GOP use of it in the General Election.

[Kansas Wyatt]

30. Edwards is our only hope.

Think about this... 'The Powers That Be' want another Republican President in the White House, and definitely do NOT want Edwards there. So, Clinton and Obama are being sold to the American People as the Democratic Party choice to the choose from, and they will do more for Corporate America than they will ever do for 'We The People.' But, like it or not, Clinton and Obama are more vulnerable to losing to a republican, than Edwards is, and there is no stigma already attached to Edwards. No disrespect intended.

[Andy823]

44. Totally agree with you

The reason Edwards gets very little media coverage is exactly what you said, the "powers that be" do not want him to run. They know the people of this country are tired of what we have had for the last 7 years, and we want a change, a big change. Edwards is the man to give us that change, and he can beat any of the repugs they run against him.

Hillary won't give us a change, with her it will be "more of the same", but not as bad as Bush. Obama is just not ready for prime time. He can't win the general. As someone else said, this country is not ready for a black man to be president, maybe VP, but not president. If either of them do win the nomination, it's the best thing the republicans have going for them. If Edwards wins, the we win, the country wins, and the world wins! He can make the changes we need!

[MilesColtrane]

33. Unbelievable that a 3rd place finish in the FIRST state primary would eliminate Edwards...

...as Dionne asserts.

What the fuck ever happened to the will of the people?

I'm not buying it, and I'm sending John another donation.

[Blackhatjack]

35. 75% of precinct chairs in Iowa are Edwards Supporters... (He knows how this works!)

[bobbolink]

39. I didn't know that... you just made my day.

:bounce:

:bounce:

:party:

:bounce:

:bounce:

[omega minimo]

40. If a Populist doesn't win in '08, the long reign of Reaganism will continue.......

:thumbsdown:

[Spazito]

45. It has been interesting watching how the Edwards campaign has been, low-key, in comparison...

to the very public, ever-increasing slug-fest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. It struck me Edwards was sitting in a very good place. His campaign and his supporters have NOT been partaking of the finger pointing to the same level of acrimony as the other two top-tier candidates and, it seems, have been, instead, working quietly behind the scenes, out of the radar of the MSM infotainment quest and focusing on the "feet on the ground" campaign instead.

Edited to correct poor sentence phrasing.

[byronius]

46. John's it. Do we deserve him, as a nation? I'm not sure.

His interview on Charlie Rose sold me. Holy Cow. That's the candidate.

[Blackhatjack]

48. When Edwards WINS the MSM is going to have to make a decision....

... jump on board the Edwards momentum or try to prop up Hillary even though she finished 2nd or 3rd in Iowa.

The MSM has been trying to marginalize Edwards by ignoring him. Wonder how they will spin this one.

[Clark2008]

50. He'd cripple the country, too.

Changing his mind from one day to the next and apolgizing for it is no way to run an administration. That's almost as bad as NEVER changing one's mind in light of facts.

[Blackhatjack]

52. Yeah, no one wins in your book of perfect world compliance...

Just look how well things have worked out with Bush NEVER ADMITTING he made a mistake.

I will take the 'honesty approach' over the 'never admit a mistake approach' every time.

And BTW, there are no candidates who have never and will never make a mistake.

But I imagine you were not really serious in proposing that only 'perfect candidates' be elected.