Remember: Not everyone in the ruling cabal wants to invade or bomb Iran....

Junkdrawer

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Dec-04-07 02:28 PM
Original message

Remember: Not everyone in the ruling cabal wants to invade or bomb Iran....

Back in March, I posted this:

The invasion of Iraq happened because there was a �coalition of the willing� of the biggest US Foreign Policy heavyweights:

1.) Big Oil
2.) The Administration
3.) The Military Industrial Complex
4.) Israel
5.) Saudi Arabia

Now, not all the above coalition is signed on to an invasion/attack on Iran. Let�s look at the above players in detail:

1.) Big Oil:
Big Oil wanted the oil in Iraq. Iraq has the lion�s share of the under-exploited oil in the region. Big Oil is in the process of getting EXTREMELY favorable terms for the drilling of Iraqi oil. Chaos in Iraq got them these favorable terms, but once the ink is dry on the deal, Big Oil will be pushing to actually bring stability to Iraq. An attack on Iran will make any attempt to exploit oil ANYWHERE in the Middle East nearly impossible for decades. James Baker is the voice of Big Oil and Saudi Arabia. The recommendations of the Iraqi Study Group pretty much spells out what Big Oil wants. They DON�T want an attack on Iran. Saber rattling to intimidate Iran into a more �helpful� role maybe, but no attack.

2.) The Administration
The Administration has broken so many laws to make the invasion of Iraq happen, it boggles the mind. The farther away from a massive terror attack/new invasion, the more jail cells figure into their future. So, of course, they want a new war. But this Administration is a creature of Big Oil. So Cheney is probably appealing to as many power brokers as he can, but, in the end, he�ll follow orders.

3.) The Military Industrial Complex
These ghouls make money on war and chaos. Probably the biggest fans of an Iranian invasion.

4.) Israel
Once Iraq was invaded, if Iran didn�t have a nuclear program, they would be idiots if they didn�t start one. Fast. And Israel would be its target. So, of course Israel is pushing for an attack on Iran. A while back, someone said Big Oil and Israel were allies. I said �fellow travelers�. And here�s where they part company.

5.) Saudi Arabia
As usual, the interests of Saudi Arabia and Big Oil are almost identical. While the Saudis do have ancient religious antagonisms with Shiite Iran, I think the interests of keeping the oil flowing will win in the end.

So, the box score is 2 for, 2 against and the Administration split down the middle. My guess is that, as long as Iran lets Big Oil have its way in Iraq, no attack � even if Iran goes forward with its nuclear program.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=527615

The only thing that's changed since I wrote that was that the Iraqi congress has balked on the oil deal. And Iran may well have played an indirect role in encouraging the Shiites to hold out for a better deal. But remember: an attack on Iran stops the Oil Business in the region for a long time. Big Oil sees an attack as the LAST resort.

My guess is that all the saber rattling is still just an attempt on Big Oil's part to get Iran to stand aside. And how will we know that a deal was struck? Well, we'll see a backing away from all the threats to Iran (like this NIE???) and then we'll see the Iraqis sign a deal. Now, Israel will not be happy with this deal, but if Israel is the 800 lb. gorilla in US foreign policy circles, Big Oil is King Kong.

Again: my money is on lots of brinksmanship, but no attack.