ALERT: Rate of Arctic winter refreeze may be slowing considerably

[tom_paine]

Notice the last month of data on the far right hand of the total km2 ice curve. If one compares with the exact month upcoming but for last year (the far left month of the curve) we can see that last year this was the period of quickening freezing, the curve is about as close to vertical as it gets.

Because this curve is only 365-day, we cannot see how this past month compares to this month last year directly (bummer), but having kept an eye on it fairly often these last few months I can safely say that it wasn't nearly as "horizontal" as this last month.

I don't know what this means, but if one extrapolates the rate of refreeze if it remains this slow (it may later in the year take up the slack and still get to 13 million km2 total arctic winter ice) it could be as low as10 or 11 million (not that I am predicting that, but if the refreeze rate remains no higher than it was last months, the math is clear).

Here's another useful chart from the site.



Is it possible that we will see a significantly diminshed WINTER arctic extent now? Stay tuned.

Interestingly enough, now that I know enough about how arctic ice works, I see that winter ice extent was always a key point of Bushie Obfuscation and propaganda. They would always tout area of winter arctic ice extent (even though we now know that ice they are refrring to has gone from being year-long sheets to weak now seasonal ice, for much of the Arctic).

What will they do if the worst happens? What new lie based on half-truths and omission surrounding a kernal of truth to obfucate the increasingly obvious. Like the tobacco giants and their cigarette lies, the only thing certain is that some fresh new Bushie Lies will be shortly rolling off the conveyor belt this spring if there's only 11 km2 of peak arctic ice.

I hope that this doesn't happen, but since when does hope outweigh the math?



A hearty Stephen Colbert Tip of the Hat to hatrack and other E/E forum stalwarts, for digging up the sites with raw data in the first place.

:hi:

[leftist_not_liberal]

1. 83 in Dallas today. Still have not had a freeze.

We're off the cliff.

Enjoy your cars.

America makes me fucking sick. Might as well have burning crosses in all black peoples yards and watch the population yawn... it is the same fucking thing with this issue and no one does a fucking thing.

Might as well have a president who has lies us into two wars and got caught red handed doing it yet again... Oh wait.

Your hybrids and mercury filled light bulbs don't mean a goddamn thing.

And cap and trade? Utter capitalist bullshit.

Nothing shows the complete rot that is our country than the fact that NOTHING is done about climate without an eye towards continuing the ecocidal exploitation that is "profit"

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Brilliant thread, and heartily kicked and recommended!

These graphs are THE story right now. Not the 2008 elections, not even * and his corrupt administration. This story and others, such as the melting of Greenland, are everything to the future of mankind and the planet.

Help get this on the greatest page if you agree, or even if those graphs worry you only just a little. Sorry to say we're well past the point of no return on this one, peeps.

[tom_paine]

3. Thank you. If one looks at past big decreases in curve minima on Chart #2

You can see that last year's was by far the largest single decrease in minimum winter ice extent.

It hasn't dropped 1 million km2 or more in the time it has been closely observed, and I would guess research, if it is possible to track (it may not be), would show that it has been a century or more since such a preciptious drop in minimum arctic sea ice has occurred.

Given that the fabled Northwest Passage is now open again, we may hve heard about something like this happening before.

Further, if one looks at the ~500,000 km2 drops, which took place in 1984, 1997, and 2003 all rebounded the next years, in which maximum winter arctic ice briefly rebounded, sometimes increasing last year's maximum.

If as we both seem to believe, a point of no return is either imminent or has passed, then this year's arctic ice maximum (Feb.- Mar. 2008) should be very telling.

And woe betide if as in past years of drop (still nothing next to last year's bottom-shattering recprd, equivalent in physical terms of losing a California and Texas of ac=rctic ice coverage in a single year), we don't see a rebound.

And, in my opinion, if the Feb. Mar. ice maximum is under 12.5 million km2, it is a very bad sign.

The math is the math and the hard data is the hard data. We will continue to enjoy our ringside seats, as it were, and only time will tell the outcome.

[Systematic Chaos]

4. Since we're talking about salt water, it's not as if it can freeze both solid and thick.

The "ice" that's forming up there right now is probably more like the stuff that comes out of the Slurpee machine from your local 7-11. It's not going to be several feet thick and solid like what we've lost. This will render it all that much easier to melt once the sun hits it again.

I hold fast to my prediction of no ice in the Arctic by 2010 - which, of course, would be "faster than expected" by "many" "surprised scientists". :eyes:

[tom_paine]

5. "Who could have foreseen?"

:rofl:

2010 might be fast for that, just a little bit, but it certainly is still possible, 2020 likely, and 2030 a lead pipe cinch, should these trends remain unreversed.

[Beetwasher]

6. The Nadir In 2007 (2nd Graph) Is Troubling And In Itself Could Be An Indicator

n/t

[countryjake]

7. Meanwhile...

US Under Pressure at Climate Conference
By JOSEPH COLEMAN, Associated Press Writer
December 06, 2007

http://www.physorg.com/news116144618.html

~snip~

American climate negotiators refused to back down in their opposition to mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions Thursday, even as a U.S. Senate panel endorsed sharp reductions in pollution blamed for global warming.

The United States, the world's largest producer of such gases, has resisted calls for strict limits on emissions at the U.N. climate conference, which is aimed at launching negotiations for an agreement to follow the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012...




Oxfam activists wearing polar bear costumes stage a demonstration outside the venue of the U.N. climate change conference in Nusa Dua, Bali island, Indonesia, Thursday, Dec. 6, 2007. Developing nations at the U.N. Climate Change Conference demanded rapid transfers of technology to help them combat global warming, while a report warned that some of Asia's biggest cities could be threatened by rising sea levels. (AP Photo/Dita Alangkara)

[tom_paine]

8. As the ship sank, we fought for the right to drill more holes in the side.

:rofl:

Sometimes you just have to :rofl: