![](http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg)
Notice the last month of data on the far right hand of the total km2 ice curve. If one compares with the exact month upcoming but for last year (the far left month of the curve) we can see that last year this was the period of quickening freezing, the curve is about as close to vertical as it gets.
Because this curve is only 365-day, we cannot see how this past month compares to this month last year directly (bummer), but having kept an eye on it fairly often these last few months I can safely say that it wasn't nearly as "horizontal" as this last month.
I don't know what this means, but if one extrapolates the rate of refreeze if it remains this slow (it may later in the year take up the slack and still get to 13 million km2 total arctic winter ice) it could be as low as10 or 11 million (not that I am predicting that, but if the refreeze rate remains no higher than it was last months, the math is clear).
Here's another useful chart from the site.
![](http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.area.jpg)
Is it possible that we will see a significantly diminshed WINTER arctic extent now? Stay tuned.
Interestingly enough, now that I know enough about how arctic ice works, I see that winter ice extent was always a key point of Bushie Obfuscation and propaganda. They would always tout area of winter arctic ice extent (even though we now know that ice they are refrring to has gone from being year-long sheets to weak now seasonal ice, for much of the Arctic).
What will they do if the worst happens? What new lie based on half-truths and omission surrounding a kernal of truth to obfucate the increasingly obvious. Like the tobacco giants and their cigarette lies, the only thing certain is that some fresh new Bushie Lies will be shortly rolling off the conveyor belt this spring if there's only 11 km2 of peak arctic ice.
I hope that this doesn't happen, but since when does hope outweigh the math?
A hearty Stephen Colbert Tip of the Hat to hatrack and other E/E forum stalwarts, for digging up the sites with raw data in the first place.:hi: