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An abridged history of Iraqi civilian casualty estimates

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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 11:01 PM
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An abridged history of Iraqi civilian casualty estimates
... Evidence is mounting to suggest that between 5,000 and 10,000 Iraqi civilians may have died during the recent war, according to researchers involved in independent surveys of the country ... The Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict (CIVIC) has mobilized 150 surveyors to carry out detailed interviews with victims of the war; recording deaths, injuries, and damage to property with a view to securing assistance from US government funds. A full accounting could take months, says CIVIC coordinator Marla Ruzicka ...
from the May 22, 2003 edition
Surveys pointing to high civilian death toll in Iraq
Preliminary reports suggest casualties well above the Gulf War
By Peter Ford
Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/0522/p01s02-woiq.html

... The precise number of Iraqi civilians killed by U.S. soldiers since the end of major military operations is unknown, and the U.S. military told Human Rights Watch that it keeps no statistics on civilian deaths ...
Iraq: Civilian Deaths Need U.S. Investigation
Report Tallies Civilian Toll in Baghdad
(New York, October 21, 2003)
http://hrw.org/english/docs/2003/10/21/iraq6467.htm

Iraq's Health Ministry has ordered a halt to a count of civilians killed during the war and told its statistics department not to release figures compiled so far, the official who oversaw the count told The Associated Press on Wednesday ... Dr. Nagham Mohsen, the head of the ministry's statistics department, said the order was relayed to her by the ministry's director of planning, Dr. Nazar Shabandar, who said it came on behalf of Abbas. She said the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority, which oversees the ministry, also wanted the counting to stop ...
Posted 12/10/2003 1:16 PM
Iraq's Health Ministry ordered to stop counting civilian dead from war
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2003-12-10-iraq-civilians_x.htm

... A cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September, 2004 ... The risk of death was estimated to be 2.5-fold .. higher after the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1.5-fold .. higher after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected .. happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more if the outlier Falluja cluster is included ... Violent deaths were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition forces were women and children ...
“Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey”
The Lancet, Vol 364, No 9445, 30 October 2004
http://www.epic-usa.org/Default.aspx?tabid=424

... Then this morning at 7 a.m. I got a call telling me she had died. The irony that she was killed trying to help victims of violence is so painful ...
Remembering Marla Ruzicka
By Rachel Levin
Producer NBC News
updated 9:00 a.m. ET, Mon., April. 18, 2005
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7538462/

... In my two years in Iraq, the one question I am asked the most is: "How many Iraqi civilians have been killed by American forces?" The American public has a right to know how many Iraqis have lost their lives since the start of the war and as hostilities continue. In a news conference at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan in March 2002, Gen. Tommy Franks said, "We don't do body counts." His words outraged the Arab world and damaged the U.S. claim that its forces go to great lengths to minimize civilian casualties ...
Why Numbers Matter
By Marla Ruzicka
Posted April 20, 2005
http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/21799/

... In December 2005, Bush gave a rare estimate of the number of civilians killed since the U.S.-led invasion, acknowledging that 30,000 citizens had died in the violence. The president's figure, which his aides stressed was not official, was in the range given by the Iraq Body Count at the time ...
Many tolls for Iraq's population
Thu Jan 10, 2008
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSL10731034

... The United Nations reported .. more than 34,000 Iraqis were killed in violence last year ... The report was .. compiled using reports from morgues, hospitals and municipal authorities across Iraq, and was nearly three times higher than an estimate for 2006 compiled from Iraqi ministry tallies by The Associated Press earlier this month ... An Iraqi government spokesman called the count exaggerated ... Despite the criticism from the Iraqi government, the United Nations said it used all official sources, most of which relied on counts of death certificates ...
Iraqi death toll exceeded 34,000 in '06, UN Says
By Sabrina Tavernise
Published: January 16, 2007
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/17/africa/web.0117iraq.php

... As many as 654,965 more Iraqis may have died since hostilities began in Iraq in March 2003 than would have been expected under pre-war conditions, according to a survey conducted by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad. The deaths from all causes—violent and non-violent—are over and above the estimated 143,000 deaths per year that occurred from all causes prior to the March 2003 invasion ...
October 11, 2006
Updated Iraq Survey Affirms Earlier Mortality Estimates
Mortality Trends Comparable to Estimates by Those Using Other Counting Methods
http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/press_releases/2006/burnham_iraq_2006.html

... The Johns Hopkins team reports being 95 percent certain that the true figure lies between about 400,000 and about 900,000 ...
Lancet study puts a number on Iraqi deaths
Eugene Robinson, Washington Post Writers Group
Monday, October 16, 2006
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/10/16/EDG6PKDSLU1.DTL

... The new estimate closely mirrors an Iraq Health Ministry tally from late 2006, based on 100 bodies a day arriving at morgues and hospitals. No official count has ever been available. While the US military denies tracking Iraqi deaths, it has challenged reports of tolls from shootings and bombings as exaggerated - indicating it does monitor fatalities ...
151,000 Iraqis died in three years
John Hechinger
January 11, 2008
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23034763-2703,00.html

Americans unaware of Iraqi death toll
Poll shows knowledge of U.S. dead, but huge underestimation of Iraqis
<AP> updated 12:17 p.m. ET, Sat., Feb. 24, 2007
... The number of Iraqis killed, however, is much harder to pin down, and that uncertainty is perhaps reflected in Americans’ tendency to lowball the Iraqi death toll by tens of thousands ... The U.N. Assistance Mission for Iraq reports more than 34,000 deaths in 2006 alone. Among those polled for the AP survey, however, the median estimate of Iraqi deaths was 9,890 ...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17310383/

... In its quarterly report on the human rights situation, the UN agency said the Iraqi government had stopped providing casualty figures ... Iraqi and US officials claim that the civilian death toll from Iraq's sectarian war has declined since the launch on February 14 of the Baghdad security plan, but refuse to release exact figures to prove this ...
UN criticises Iraq for concealing casualty figures
Published: Wednesday April 25, 2007
http://rawstory.com/news/afp/UN_criticises_Iraq_for_concealing_c_04252007.html

... According to the ORB poll, a survey of 1,461 adults suggested that the total number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million. ORB said it drew its conclusion from responses to the question about those living under one roof: "How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003?" Based on Iraq's estimated number of households -- 4,050,597 -- it said the 1.2 million figure was reasonable.There was no way to verify the number, because the government does not provide a full count of civilian deaths. Neither does the U.S. military ...
Poll: Civilian toll in Iraq may top 1M
A British survey offers the highest estimate to date ...
By Tina Susman, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
September 14, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-fg-iraq14sep14,1,1207545.story?coll=la-news-a_section


... The Iraq Body Count (IBC) .. said in a report released Tuesday that there were between 22,586 and 24,159 violent civilian deaths in Iraq during the past year ...
Source: Agence France-Presse
Date: 02 Jan 2008
24,000 civilian Iraqi deaths in 2007
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900SID/LSGZ-7AGDD6?OpenDocument

... An Iraq Body Count researcher tracks civilian deaths reported by online news sources .. using .. search engines. Deaths .. resulting from coalition military intervention .. are recorded after they are confirmed by at least two credible news sources ... Additionally, all news sources must meet certain criteria: Each Web site must be updated daily and available in English; articles must be archived with distinct URLs; the sites must be fully public and widely referenced in other media ...
From AJR, August-September 2005
Counting Civilian Casualties
Media organizations are relying on a little-known group that started in England for the best estimate of civilian deaths in Iraq.
By Sarah Clark
http://www.ajr.org/Article.asp?id=3919

... IBC omit to mention .. that the credibility of their database as an approximate guide to levels of violence in Iraq .. is undermined by the fact that conditions in Iraq are so lethal that journalists are unable to discover many violent deaths of civilians. Consider that a study of deaths in Guatemala from 1960 to 1996 .. found that numbers of murders reported by the media in fact decreased as violence increased ... "A study of 13 war affected countries presented at a recent Harvard conference found over 80% of violent deaths in conflicts go unreported by the press and governments." ...
October 11, 2007
Iraq Body Count: “A Very Misleading Exercise”
by David Edwards and David Cromwell
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?ItemID=14007





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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-11-08 07:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. U.S. aircraft drop dozens of bombs
Friday, January 11, 2008
BAGHDAD -- The U.S. military dropped 40,000 pounds of explosives southeast of Baghdad on Thursday ... http://www.modbee.com/local/story/176925.html
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-11-08 07:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kurdish source: Turkish artillery shells N Iraq
2008-01-11 20:36:51
... "The Turkish artillery shelled the villages of Shiefa and Zally, about three kilometers away from the Iraqi-Turkish border at about 7:00 a.m. (0400 GMT)," the source told Xinhua on condition of anonymity ...
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/11/content_7407711.htm

Another indication of a deteriorating situation. Until several months ago, Turkey wasn't officially attacking Iraqi sites (though it seems possible that, given the constant military noises from Turkey since 2003, there were attacks but US pressure kept the Turks quiet). Now, with some regularity, we see press about Turkey "shelling empty villages" where there are "no civilian casualties." But why shell a deserted village?
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