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FACT #1 - Lowering Taxes Provides INCREASED revenues, BUT

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champion-these-facts Donating Member (14 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 05:40 PM
Original message
FACT #1 - Lowering Taxes Provides INCREASED revenues, BUT
Edited on Wed Mar-19-08 05:41 PM by champion-these-facts
I have been trying to search for one of the most profound facts that we as democrats can say separates us from core republican beliefs, and I think it could arguably be to attack, head on, the mantra chanted by Dittoheads and Reaganites alike....that being....lowering taxes provides increased revenues.

Ever heard this?
Has that fact bothered you?
Ever get into an argument with a Dittohead about something along this line?

Well rest assured fellow democrats this fact actually makes a strong case for core Democrat fiscal beliefs and core attitudes about a responsible government, one that does not irresponsibly cut taxes in time of war or while being obscenely in debt. We can take this issue head on and it is a crying shame that our democratic leaders don't do just that.

I say hit the Dittoheads and Reaganites right where it hurts the most.

"Lowering taxes increases revenues" - true - it CAN provided the economy grows along with it and the lowering of taxes can be loosely correlated to this economic growth. In this case, the growing economy can lead to prosperity and then the government taxes this increased prosperity, thus collecting more in revenues.

So far so good.

BUT.

Guess how much theoretically one might expect to get back on every dollar that is cut?

Now stop to think.
You cut taxes 1 dollar. You got "increased revenues". Do you get the 1 dollar back plus more?

NO.

Theoretically (no need to complicate this right now with source material which can be provided) many economists belief the THEORETIC LIMIT OF WHAT CAN BE GAINED THROUGH LOWERING TAXES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IS 20 CENTS BACK ON THE DOLLAR. That is actually quite high and a figure that no ditto head could possibly argue with, in fact they might champion such a return.

But
IT is NOT $1.20 MIND YOU....WE'RE NOT MAKING ANY MONEY HERE. EVEN IN THE BEST CASE SCENARIO THE GOVERNMENT HAS LOST 80 CENTS ON EVERY 1 DOLLAR TAX CUT.

WORKS GREAT IF YOU HAD THE MONEY TO BEGIN WITH, BUT NOT IF YOU'RE CONSTANTLY ADDING TO THE DEBT.

I have tried to search for data on IRS revenues and those quarters that show increased revenues because historically the government never gets close on average to that 20% theoretical upper limit. I wouldn't be surprised if the average is 5% or less.

But the point of this is to first establish a simple fact, the government incurs a NET LOSS.
REVENUES ARE INCREASED, BUT UNLESS THAT MONEY IS ALREADY "IN THE BANK" AND WE ARE NOT IN DEBT, OR IF WE ARE RUNNING A SURPLUS, WE CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE MONEY WE CUT IS CONTRIBUTING AT 80 CENTS OR GREATER FOR EVERY TAX DOLLAR CUT TO THE DEBT THAT ALREADY EXISTS.

So the point here is to separate democrats from republicans in terms of a keen sense of fiscal responsibility. It wasn't until the dawn of Reaganomics, unusual tax cuts to the rich, in tune with ever relentless defense spending, that we got endowed with a near permanent debt situation.

THE SOLUTION IS SIMPLY TO REVERSE THAT THEORY, AS CLINTON/GORE DID IN THE 90S...NAMELY...INCREASE THE UPPER RATE TO APPROXIMATELY 40 TO 50%.

Had Reaganomics NOT taken hold, one could imagine a scenario where the government had some reasonable choices to make. Should we have this service vs. that, vs. returning some money to the people, to stimulate the economy, to hopefully provide an overall positive thrust for America.

Those rationale decisions on tax cuts are no longer available because extreme Reaganomics has thrust us into a no-win situation.

WE HAVE NO CHOICE NOW BUT TO RAISE TAXES, ESPECIALLY TO THOSE THAT HAVE PROSPERED TO THE TUNE OF AN AVERAGE OF 15% ON THEIR MONEY FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS.

These are the people that actually benefit, personally (and temporarily by the way) by the cutting of taxes and running up of the national debt.....AND WHICH WILL LET GO OF THIS DREAM SCENARIO WITH SOME FIGHTING TO THE BITTER END. Why end this joy ride for them....it is of no real personal consequence to their thinking or pocket books because they continue to make 15% on their money.

Why would they care if there is a national debt?
The consequences are small....with the total interest on the debt each year funded by ALL Americans.

While they do nothing but prosper at an average rate which compounds and compounds their individual assets to every increasingly obscene levels.....you and I fund payments on the national debt each year by the tune of about 8 cents on every tax dollar we pay. (It was as high as 15 cents on the dollar during the Clinton/Gore years before this was turned around somewhat).

Does someone in the upper 1/10th of one percent worry about this "tax burden" to pay interest on the national debt?
Proportionately they pay way less than you and I in terms of assets they have gained vs. reported income.

Class warfare?
Personally, I'm sick and tired of paying a "rich tax" of 8 cents on my tax dollar to pay down interest on the debt. I don't want that "rich tax" anymore.
I don't want to have to pay interest on the debt which was originally fueled and what continues to be fueled primarily by having too low an upper rate and too much military spending.

Trimming each to reasonable levels (holding military spending constant to inflation and raising the upper rate to 40%) will give back 300B per year or more that Clinton/Gore realized and applied to balancing the budget and paying down the debt.




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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 05:43 PM
Response to Original message
1. The fact's actually wrong...

That "fact" is only a "fact" when you are on the good side of the Laffer Curve.

We aren't. We're on the side of the Laffer Curve where cutting taxes cuts revenue.
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champion-these-facts Donating Member (14 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. LAFFER CURVE supports the "fact"
The so called Laffer Curve was used by the professor during classes, and really represents a theoretical point of taxation where revenues are maximized, however the essential theory is based on two extreme points that everyone agrees on (zero taxation and 100% taxation) with a conveniently nice curve drawn in between.

Rather than try to practically use the Laffer Curve (which no one has realistically been capable of doing) most would argue that the fact that tax breaks ARE providing increased revenues means that taxes are not at a point where they are too high. Common sense tells us that this is true, today, in the reality in which we live now. After all, with the top 1% amassing revenues to the tune of 10s of Trillions of dollars, I think we can safely say there is a group of people that could be easily taxed without feeling much pain, don't you? They are in a rather safe haven with their 15% average yield on their money since Reaganomics has been in gear.

To use the Laffer Curve to argue that we should keep on cutting taxes to the point of seeing how much revenue or extra growth might be possible is just to reinforce our opponents and their supply side theories. One could easily conclude that Laffer just doesn't apply (does it ever) especially when the country is sitting on 10 Trillion in debt and 500B per year in interest payments. How exactly does that fit into the curve I wonder.

The facts of life as I see them are that the current Reaganomics we live in has produced historically (clearly documented) increased tax revenues over the years with its astounding tax breaks. This is what the Dittoheads and Reaganites champion, it is essentially what they hang their hat on. It is iconic of their drive for lower taxes. They champion this win-win formula, cut taxes, get increased revenues, creation of wealth, more growth. They are right for the most part, with the exception that it has left nothing to build infrastructure and has resulted in a debt we cannot manage....that's the other side of the equation they ignore.

What we need is a Ross Perot type awareness and ability to connect with the public is simple terms together with Kucinich type vigor to sufficiently explain why the national debt is killing this country and why Reaganomics is specifically the cause. The disadvantages AND advantages of Reaganomics has to be put in clear perspective for the average American to see, put in perspective, and forever embellish.

I'd like to see someone do some more comprehensive accounting which shows both sides of the equation, not just the positive side of economic growth and creation of wealth, the the other side, the debt sheet which indicates erosion of infrastructure and interest payments on our 10 Trillion debt, yearly to the tune of 500B, that have to be made as a result of this "spending spree".

Has anyone seen such an accounting?
That's the argument that has to be put in real, factual (to the maximum extent possible) terms that the average American can understand.

We for the most part understand that if we take part of our salary to make investments and those investments yield a positive gain, perhaps 5 to 10%, it is tempting to invest our money. But if we take money out using a home equity loan, and find that the equity of the home is shrinking faster than the other investment gains, we have a net loss.

Problem is, we have taken this self-destructive, one-sided gains approach for too long. USA has no money to invest, and it is getting a bigger and bigger mortgage payment.

More on the budget at:
http://www.house.gov/budget_democrats/

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skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 06:21 PM
Response to Reply #6
9. I don't think you really even need to factor in...
...the negative impact of deteriorating shared services in order to belie the "fact".

Really all you have to factor in the real value of inflation.

A typical site saying we get more tax revenues would post a graphic such as this:



...which uses the government inflation numbers.

The government inflation numbers are pretty much bullcrap.

Redraw that graph with shadowstat's inflation indices, you'll see what's really went on
during the Bush tax cuts.

http://shadowstats.com

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jmowreader Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. Oh, come ON!!
Ronald Reagan killed the deductibility of non-mortgage interest. That, and some fiddling with the depreciation rules, caused those revenue increases.

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Recursion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 08:49 PM
Response to Reply #6
11. This is why I hate economists. Read Martin Gardiner on this
I know economists love to propound theories, but we engineers prefer actual data. To wit: if you look back over the past 50 years, the correlation between government revenue and any given marginal tax rate is about 10^-30.
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ProgressiveFool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 05:46 PM
Response to Original message
2. LOL all that effort, and your "fact" is actually wrong
Edited on Wed Mar-19-08 05:59 PM by ProgressiveFool
With all the problems our country is facing, there are still some greedy souls out there who only care about their taxes? Fuck them, I say; if they can't do their part to help their country and countrymen when the need is great, then I proclaim such people to be unAmerican.

edit: sorry to sound so strident, but on a day like today, emotions run high. The fact remains - your premise is flawed. Tax cuts do not so simply equal rising revenues. What is needed much more is a re-assessment of national priorities, a shift away from taxing labor to more taxation of capital, and a forceful prying of the fat fingers of the rich from the government spigot. Our tax code is a mess because it's ad hoc, put together piecemeal as gifts to various groups, well-intentioned or corrupt, get added as we go along.
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Mountainman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 05:47 PM
Response to Original message
3. They lower taxes on one end and raise them on the other. But never talk about the total picture.
Reagan cut income taxes but raised corporate taxes by changing the depreciation rules. The effect was an increase in revenue in the short run. Most people did not know about the depreciation rule change. So the did not see the total picture which is what the right wanted to happen.


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Juche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 05:59 PM
Response to Original message
4. Krugman
I know little about economics, but I remember Krugman saying this is true when Kennedy cut the income tax (91% down to 70%) and when Reagan cut it again (70% down to 50%) but after that it doesn't really matter, ie Bush's cutting it from 39.6% down to 35% made little/no difference.

I dislike Bush, but there is one good thing about the economy, from 2003-2008 the federal budget revenue increased from about 1.5 trillion up to 2.66 trillion.

I've heard a good deal of that is just due to the fact that corporate profits and millionaire salaries are through the roof, so they are paying more taxes.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/81xx/doc8116/05-18-TaxRevenues.pdf
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lumberjack_jeff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. There was a one-time corporate tax holiday that I don't entirely understand.
It's not a trend.
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Juche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-19-08 06:07 PM
Response to Original message
5. PS dittoheads don't care
If you look at the psychology of authoritarianism (authoritarian christians make up a huge base of dittoheads and the current crop of republicans) you see they have trouble with logical arguments. They basically believe what they want.

http://members.shaw.ca/jeanaltemeyer/drbob/chapter3.pdf

Example: There is a strong correlation between authoritarianism and religious fundamentalism. Over 70% of fundamentalists believe in creationism, but barely 36% think global warming is a serious problem. This despite tons of evidence that they are wrong on both counts.

So you are claiming that 'if I get evidence, I can prove them wrong'. They aren't going to change their minds. your best bet is to use evidence and logic to drive a wedge between authoritarian republicans and moderate republicans, independents & libertarians, who still use logic.
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 03:12 PM
Response to Original message
7. The arguments are irrelevant, no tax cut has resulted in increased revenue, Period.
The Republicans make the claim all the time, its always based on some absurdly high anticipated growth rate that will be induced by the tax cut. In truth it has never materialized, no tax cut we have ever made resulted in increased revenues, in fact just the opposite has been the case.
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champion-these-facts Donating Member (14 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 05:41 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. perhaps a new title, "tax cuts do not pay for themselves"????
that was the real point.
if you mean "total revenues" that meaning what extra comes in does not outweigh what goes out?...then you are right.

TAX CUTS NOT ONLY DON'T PAY FOR THEMSELVES, THEY HAVE PROPELLED MONEY TO THE TOP, RESULTING IN OBSCENE ASSETS HELD BY A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE OF OUR COUNTRY.

AND YOU AND I HANG IN THE BALANCE, WITH THE COUNTRY GENERALLY ACCEPTING THE "CREATION OF WEALTH" AND THE GROWTH.

Sorry I was trying to form a dialog on how to attack this very pertinent issue, which drives our economy ever so precariously into an insurmountable debt situation.
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fascisthunter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 08:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
12. Thank You... I'm Sick of the bs
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lumberjack_jeff Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-20-08 08:56 PM
Response to Original message
13. "Increased revenue from tax cuts" is an oxymoron.
As others have pointed out, the FACT is false. In the 80's taxes weren't cut, they were shifted onto the middle and working classes.

In this decade tax cuts have reduced revenues, and war has forced us to borrow the shortfall.
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