Traders betting on a win for Democrats.

[trof]

From my Charles Schwab e-newsletter.


Perceptions and misperceptions

A common perception exists that Republicans are more pro-business and pro-investment than Democrats, supporting lower taxes and limited government—and that’s better for stocks. Post-election-year results have indeed borne this out, with 3.7% mean performance under Republicans vs. 1.9% under Democrats. The pattern continued the following year, but in the pre-election year, the market historically greatly favored Democrats: up 16.9% vs. 6.4% under Republicans. Overall, average annual market returns have been slightly higher under Democratic presidents (7.0%) than GOP ones (6.1%).
http://www.schwabinsights.com/2008_03/strategy.html

[RB TexLa]

1. Here are the odds from actual betting

US Election 2008 Specials
Winning Party
Singles Only. For all the latest in US Politics visit our dedicated microsite - www.electionbetting.com.

Republicans 6 - 4

Democrats 1 - 2

[Bandit]

4. I thought betting on elections was illegal

:shrug:

[RB TexLa]

5. I guess it is here, I've never seen a (legal) booking operation taking them

I've never understood why it should be illegal. Earl Long used to say if someone didn't bet at least $10,000 on themselves to win you shouldn't give them your vote.

[CJCRANE]

2. I read an article

in Slate several years that said the same thing - that stock market returns were higher under Democratic administrations. The reason given was that the Republicans tend to invest in the military and nothing else while the Democrats stimulate a broader range of the economy.

[Clear Blue Sky]

3. Much can change in 9 months.