Looking over the DSCC site, Democrats look pretty good for 2008

[Hippo_Tron]

http://www.dscc.org/2008races/

From the map alone it's clear that we have the advantage with the GOP having a lot more seats to defend. New Hampshire, Colorado, and Minnesota will be huge targets. Mark Warner is considering running for US Senate in Virginia, even if John Warner decides to run for re-election, which is questionable at this point. Susan Collins in Maine is going to have a real Democratic challenger unlike Olympia Snow who was only had to face a sacrificial lamb last time. Gordon Smith in Oregon may face some serious problems as well.

Although we probably won't get 60 Dems, I think that our majority will be largely filibuster proof next cycle given that we may only have to convince somewhere between 2 and 5 Republicans to vote for cloture. One thing is for sure, our majority will almost definitely be Lieberman proof.

[SteppingRazor]

1. Yes and no...

it's been my contention that we gain a net total of two seats, picking up Colorado, Minnesota and New Hampshire but losing Louisiana. That would mean a new setup of 51-47-2. A more solid majority, but still not filibuster-proof.

[Hippo_Tron]

3. I wouldn't count Landrieu out by any means

First of all, if the GOP doesn't find a strong challenger, she will win without much difficulty. Secondly, the GOP will be concentrating mostly on the Governors race in 2007 which gives Landrieu time to quietly build her war chest without enduring the GOP smear machine.

Also, the Louisiana Republic Party has a history of self-destruction. Both of Landrieu's opponents Woody Jenkins and Suzzie Terrell ultimately did themselves in.

Additionally, I think that the argument for Landrieu's seniority and position in the majority party will be a strong one after Katrina.

[SteppingRazor]

5. Katrina is the problem...

Democrats running for statewide office in Louisiana rely on heavily Democratic New Orleans to get elected. That voting base is no longer existant — at least not anywhere near the extent it was pre-Katrina. Unless New Orleans grows by leaps and bounds in the next two years, I'd consider Landrieu's chances to be tenuous at best.

As for Virginia and Maine, I'll take another look at VA if and when Mark Warner decides to run. And in Maine, unfortunately, both Collins and Snowe enjoy solid approval ratings.

[Hippo_Tron]

6. Lincoln Chafee also had solid approval ratings

And he lost in a landslide. Maine voters recognize the fact that their two Senators are enabling the Republics. Collins would not be facing a serious challenger if the Dems didn't think that they had a reasonable shot at winning.

[SteppingRazor]

7. Granted, Tom Allen (the candidate you're referring to, I assume) is a threat...

and I do think we have a chance to unseat Collins. I just don't put it in the same category as NH, CO, or MN. I didn't want to make it sound like Allen had zero chance of winning there. Sorry! :hi:

[Hippo_Tron]

8. Agreed, but I would watch Maine very closely

Tom Allen would not be giving up his house seat to run if he did not think that he could win.

[SteppingRazor]

9. Wholeheartedly agree. I listed Maine as a "tossup"...

in my Senate predictions:

http://blogs.southflorida.com/citylink_dansweeney/2007/02/a_filibusterfree_seante_in_200.html

[skipos]

2. If we get a Lieberman proof majority, that would be pretty sweet.

If it is biiger than that, all the better.

[LSK]

4. We need 10

That would negate the Lieberman factor too.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

10. Listing off serious opportunities...

Allard (CO) - State is trending blue and it'll be an open seat, with Allard retiring.
Domenici (NM) - May not run due to health, doesn't have much money.
Coleman (MN) - HUGE target on his back. In with Bush way too deep and didn't win by much in 2002.
Dole (NC) - Another state that is ever so slowly turning blue, the right candidate could take the race.
Sununu (NH) - Seriously trending blue, Sununu is also in too deep with Bush.

Fringe opportunities include Collins (ME) and Smith (OR). Though their states are trending blue, they're somewhat popular moderates. I don't think they're slam dunks by any stretch. John Warner (VA) would only possibly lose to Mark Warner, but I don't see it happening. John Warner is fairly well respected. Sessions (AL) could also be vulnerable - Alabama has a surprisingly blue streak to it, with Dems controlling the state legislature overwhelmingly.

We could also stand to lose Johnson (SD) due to health issues and Landrieu (LA) to the always tight races in Louisiana.

I think we can have a net gain of 3-5 seats in the Senate.