WP Front Page: Backup Strategy Missing For Iraq ("Rebuff, Optimism & Evasion")

[Hissyspit]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/04/AR2007030401321.html?sub=AR

Backup Strategy Missing For Iraq
Outside Experts, Not White House, Discuss Options

Eager to appear resolute and reluctant to provide fodder for skeptics, U.S. officials rebuff questions about failure with a mix of optimism and evasion.

By Karen DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, March 5, 2007; Page A01

During a White House meeting last week, a group of governors asked President Bush and Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about their backup plan for Iraq. What would the administration do if its new strategy didn't work? The conclusion they took away, the governors later said, was that there is no Plan B. "I'm a Marine," Pace told them, "and Marines don't talk about failure. They talk about victory."



Sgt. John Guerra, 21, and his platoon from the 3rd Stryker Brigade Combat Team patrol a Baghdad neighborhood as part of an effort to improve security. (By Maya Alleruzzo -- Associated Press)

Pace had a simple way of summarizing the administration's position, Gov. Philip N. Bredesen (D-Tenn.) recalled. "Plan B was to make Plan A work."

- snip -

National security experts outside the government have stepped into the void, offering detailed options through public papers, speeches and policy proposals over the past several weeks. "The ultimate Plan B is pull everybody out," said Stephen D. Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an adviser to the Defense Department. "Nobody wants to do that. Most are looking at the middle ground between surge and pullout."

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[Kelly Rupert]

1. "Marines don't talk about failure?" What an insane statement.

"We don't need any back-up plans. I'm a Marine, and Marines don't talk about failure. They talk about victory."

"There's no further need for medics or military hospitals. I'm a Marine, and Marines don't talk about organ failure. They talk about victory."

"We don't need any more mechanics. I'm a Marine, and Marines don't talk about equipment failure. They talk about victory."

"We don't need to train our soldiers. I'm a Marine, and Marines don't talk about failing basic training. They talk about victory."

[TahitiNut]

2. Bullshit. Rescue, extraction, evacuation, fall-back, ... every decent military operation ...

... must foresee all kinds of eventualities and incorporate plans to deal with them. Peter Pace was being a POLITICIAN, not a 'Marine,' when he said that. God forbid he ever said something like that to a war college instructor!!

Among the many aspects of this horse shit 'plan' I detest is the absence of the most obvious analytics. ..
Q; What probability of "success" exists with no additional troops?
A: 40% (hypothetical)
Q: What probability of "success" does the addition of 21,500 troops provide?
A: 75% (hypothetical)
Q: Then what level of incremental manpower would be needed for a greater probability of "success"? How about 85%?
A: Uhhhhmmmm.
Q: Why not be more certain?
A: Uhhhhmmmm.

This line of questioning is essential, imho. If they estimate the highest probability is with 21,500 (yes, more COULD be worse) then find out why. If they claim that probability is 80-90% then hold their asses to the fire.

The fact of the matter is that they're defining "success" in a manner that's dependent on the actions of others (Iraqis), actions they take NO RESPONSIBILITY for. It's nothing but blame avoidance, pure and simple.

[Hissyspit]

3. .