JUST LOOK AT THIS MAP! It's not even a WEEK since Obama secured the Nomination!

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This map is using latest polls as of today:



The map is going to GO BLUE!

Pick-ups from 2004:

COLORADO!
IOWA!
MISSOURI!!
NEW MEXICO!!!
OHIO!!!

OBAMA SHOWS STRONG WINS: 190 electoral votes STRONG to McCains 124 strong holds.

As of Today: Current projected outcome: 287 to 227 with 24 EVs in tossup.

Coat-tails:
Senate: DEMS 58 SEATS!!!!!!
House: 237!

GOBAMA!

On Edit: I really don't want to get confident or get my hopes up. But DAMN! GOBAMA!!!

[glowing]

1. I seriously beleive he's going to win FL..

McCain will not support a National Catestrophic home owner fund.. and Obama does.. ASK any person, home owner, business owner in FL whether they want this or not.. and they will ask you if the sky is blue or is the grass green.. Also, many people are in foreclosure.. no jobs.. this state.. mark it blue.. it doesn't belong to the pigs.

[Lochloosa]

15. I am not as optimistic as you are.

Barak will never carry the North Florida area and he is going to have a problem with the Jewish vote.

But, with our hard work, you never know.:toast:

[glowing]

32. No, the Northern part, maybe not.. but I think he's got the rest of the state..

And I don't think he has a Jewish problem as much as the media tells eveyone he has a Jewish problem. His AIPAC speech was very much in line with every other politician that runs for President.. and adding unity to the Jewish people helping with equality and civil rights movement was a smart move.

[Nancy Waterman]

29. Wes Clark as VP would help with Florida

The elderly Dem ladies love him, at least my mom does.

[roguevalley]

36. don't discount Alaska. Our senate and congressional seats are in

the air.

[Lorien]

54. I agree. I've seen many Obama sticker and signs here too

and only one for McSame.

[FSogol]

2. K & R. n/t

[liberal N proud]

3. By November, McCain who?

[ThomWV]

4. He will win by a landslide in West Virginia too

Its a fool who thinks that WV will not vote for the Democrat in November's election. Fool is exactly the right word to use too. People are being fooled by the Republican spin machine what wants to create all the self fulfilling prophesies they possibly can, this is just another one.

[Staph]

26. Yep, West Virginia's going blue.

The latest poll for WV cited by Electoral-vote.com is from February 28. A lot of water has passed over the bridge since then.

[papapi]

5. Clone McShame doesn't have a chance. GObama!!!

Virginia will be ours. I have no doubt.

[LeftinOH]

6. Michigan? WTF?

[fishwax]

8. Obama wasn't on the ballot in the primary and just began campaigning there recently

Give 'em time, they'll come around :)

[sallyseven]

7. McShame is not

well liked in AZ. Lots of new people have moved in. Lots of new people in the South West. We will see how it plays out but people are now paying attention.

[onehandle]

9. That's almost exactly the outcome I expect in November.

I would add Michigan.

It will be close, but we will win.

As always, Ohio will be the key.

[RaleighNCDUer]

21. Ohio won't be "the key" to anything.

Neither will Florida, nor Pennsylvania, nor any other single state.

Dean's 50 state strategy negates that losing DLC tactic of having a single swing state determining the entire election.

If the republicans steal THIS election they will have to steal in a dozen different states all at the same time because EVERY state will be a battleground state.

[recoveringdittohed]

48. Ohio has a Democratic Sec of State this time

McLame will have to actually win Ohio to win Ohio.

[AngryOldDem]

51. That is no guarantee, as the primary showed. HOWEVER...

...with a worsening economic climate here, that may be what turns Ohio's vote.

There was a lot of GOP cross-over vote that gave the primary to HRC.

But in no way is Ohio a lock -- Obama and the Democrats should plan to spend a lot of time here, especially in poorer southern Ohio, where people for the most part are stubborn Republicans. Kerry virtually ignored that part of the state in 2004, and it was a mistake.

[Kerrytravelers]

10. I bet he can flip Nevada.

I live in California, but in 2004, I was part the the group that went to Nevada every weekend for months working for Kerry. THe population is changing. And since 2004, a ton of Californians have moved to Nevada- taking their politics with them. Also since the 2004 Presidential election, several of us have returned to Nevada to assist with lower-ticket races. There have been some definite inroads. I come from a very very very very very liberal part of Los Angeles county, and we have shared our talents and recruiting efforts with the Nevada locals, who in turn have made some huge increases to the Democratic rolls and reaching out to Independents and Republicans who can swing. Over the past four years, I am led to believe that there are some real possibilities of swinging Nevada to the blue column. I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge push by the Obama campaign there, too. Within the month, there will be organizing to get those of us in safe states to swing states.

[fishwax]

14. and possibly Montana, if things go right

I agree with you about Nevada, and I think Montana is another Western state that could go blue. Democrat Jon Tester beat a sitting republican Senator in the last election, Democrat Brian Schweitzer is one of the most popular governors in the nation, and the democrats have taken over the state legislature in the last four years. Tester said that if any Dem could flip Montana, it would be Obama :toast:

[PATRICK]

11. Now that the election

is simplified polls go back to easier to observe patterns. Bounce should remain very good for Dems but will be exploited most by the GOP media if they ever get one. The steadier poll reaction always seems to need a longer time to solidify or even take place. "Fading" bounces should not discourage but ironically they do. Steadier increases can go relatively unremarked and they shouldn't.

McCain can very possibly go Goldwater at his Convention or Nixon up in the debates. The MSM spin will strive mightily to not let the media's own political nature take its course.

Time to sow and time to reap. Nature will take its course this time.

[grantcart]

12. In NC Barr is polling 6%

[PATRICK]

13. I am hoping

that taking charge of and shifting and expanding the battleground will be at least one overwhelming factor this fall.

[hyphenate]

16. I remember how euphoric

we were in 2004. Kerry was a winner and we were all so completely in love with the idea of a Dem taking over from the failure in the wh. Ohio was stolen, by a man who was able to manipulate the votes, and by cheating and stealing.

I wouldn't get my hopes up too high, as I consider the pubs not above anything to stay in the wh. They've already committed felonies to stay in D.C., so unless it is an actual landslide, in which case it would never work, I am going to keep my hopes cloaked with dubiousness. It's the only way I will keep sane.

[berni_mccoy]

17. Democrats control FAR MORE states now than in 2004. Having the Governship and SOS makes a huge

difference. The amount of election stealing will be minimized because of this. We control 28 states and the vast majority of Electoral Votes.

[featherman]

18. Add MI, MT, ND, and NV to that map first then we can look over the south

Whether Obama can actually win VA, NC, FL, GA, MS, TX or not is an open question at this point. But he can COMPETE and make the strapped McCain play defense. And give aid to the down ticket. Money, enthusiasm, and organization are a tough thing to go up against for the GOP

[smoogatz]

19. MI, IN, SC, VA, maybe MS and LA.

I think Obama could win them all. Glorious!

[OhioChick]

20. K&R

:kick:

[AndyTiedye]

22. Can I Have Some of Whatever You Are Smoking?

I'd love to see that kind of outcome, but I really don't expect it, as long as they own the media, the churches, and the voting machinez.

[mzmolly]

23. :)

Great place to start!

[MiniMe]

24. SC?? They have South Carolina as Barely GOP?

:rofl: I thought South Carolina was pretty solid red. How wonderful!

[kentuck]

58. Goodbye Lindsey Graham ?

:-)

[TheFarseer]

60. SC, and MS for that matter, are very black

I wouldn't sleep on either of those states.

[zbdent]

25. And don't forget that John McCain doesn't have a brother who is governor

of Florida ...

[bdamomma]

27. I hope it goes bluer.

[speedoo]

28. "The Republican brand is in the trash can."

check out this prediction of a blow-out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=3396040&mesg_id=3396040

I believe it.

[unauno]

30. I will need nerves of steel

to get through this election!

[sampsonblk]

31. Just wait till next week

The polls should move even more in our favor in the coming few weeks before the convention.

[berni_mccoy]

33. I look forward to it.

I'm also going to track this and correlate it with both McCain's and Obama's travel.

[PM7nj]

34. Does Michigan contain the worlds stupidest people?

I don't mean to offend any Michigan DUers, because I know you are not dumb... but what the hell is up with your neighbors? I know there was a lot of anger over the primary and Obama has only visited the state once... but still. After everything that state has been through, they are going to vote for McCain's voodoo economics?

[GreenEyedLefty]

38. Michigan will go blue, I'm sure of it.

[TahitiNut]

41. Keep it up. The FUBAR in January will REQUIRE the Democrats to campaign in Michigan.

That was a BIG FUCK YOU to the voters of this state ... politicians playing insider games and selling the voters down the river.

This state has been SUFFERING... with the HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT and HIGHEST RATE OF FORECLOSURES ... and people damned well KNOW that some DEMOCRATS are complicit in fucking them over. They'll vote for Barr, Nader, McCain, or stay home if they don't get RESPECT.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T! Aretha Franklin. Believe it.

[roamer65]

53. No, they aren't.

People are simply not paying much attention right now. THey'll start after Labor Day. Mark my words, my state will be in the blue column in November. The turnout in Detroit will be massive this time around.

[taught_me_patience]

35. I gotta believe Michigan is going blue. n/t

[Toucano]

37. GA, SC, NC, VA

I would like to see some more recent polling data for those states because I believe they will all be in play.

[Zynx]

40. I'm beginning to believe Obama will win by greater than 10, which means VA and NC will fall.

SC will be close, but GA is still probably a bit out of reach.

[Zynx]

39. We are getting way beyond 237 in the House. We are already at 236.

I think transpose the "7" and the "3" and you are closer to the mark.

[4_TN_TITANS]

42. I had forgotten about the electoral map site...

Time to start checking it again! Thanks!

[suston96]

43. Take the blue bordered states - Ohio and Missouri - and switch them to McCain....

....and you have a tie. Those two states have the candidates separated by one point.

I follow this map every day. It will take two more weeks to get up to date polls to reflect more accurately on the map. And.....

Nothing or nobody says that things cannot change either way.

Avoid gloating and complacency. They are the one-two punches that can knock you out.

[Firespirit]

44. My map is in my signature. :)

[berni_mccoy]

45. I think you can make Alaska Blue as well.

[Rosemary2205]

46. I think there's the ever slightest outside chance he MIGHT squeek it in Georgia

I would take a trifecta - or a quadfecta or --- something.

Barr would have to pull double digits.
A decent % of the white evangelicals would have to stay home.
Pretty much every African American in the state would have to be registered and actually cast a vote.
We'd have to figure out a way to beat the Diebold factor.

Nearly impossible odds, but it doesn't hurt to dream.

[barbtries]

47. hell yeah

BLUE BLUE BLUE
rah rah rah
he's gonna win. he has to. and the turnout has to be HUGE, because the republicans as we all know do not care how they win as long as they end up in the driver's seat. they will try every cheat they know of and are no doubt at this moment dreaming up new ways to steal it from obama. because they cannot win fairly there is simply no way. not after the past 7 1/2 years.

[mmonk]

49. I'm pretty sure Obama will take NC

even though it's pink on the map. In fact, he will be here Monday.

[salin]

50. Indiana... no shading of red

and that is an accurate read of the parts of the state that I frequent, but often these areas are not representative of the state.

Think about it - have you ever seen one of these maps with Indiana not shaded red.

A big reason, IMO, is a parallel to the 50-state strategy. Because the primaries ran so late - there was a very big presence and a LOT of excitement around the many, many visits of both Clinton and Obama.

Add to that - that the powers that be (so to speak) in the business community in Indy (that runs the state GOP) is moderate - and supports moderates of both parties (they can swing) - BUT at the local level many of the GOP operations are extreme rw (ala rushies) - thus for some of them there is the "mistrust McCain" factor per YEARS of RW radio bashing.

I am far from saying that Indiana might go blue. However, last evening on the state public radio weekly political roundtable discussion, even one of the more conservative commentators said with a little laughter (as in I can't believe I am saying this)... "Indiana could be in play" (ala vote Dem at the pres. level).

Interesting times!

[Zynx]

52. I always thought Indiana was out of reach, but then a friend of the family

who has been a Republican forever told my dad that he and his wife are voting Obama and he thinks Indiana is going blue this year. I'm still doubtful, but that would be one of the most significant events in electoral history if that were to happen.

[MadashellLynn]

55. I think we Michiganders

will 'go blue' in the fall.

[roamer65]

56. The economy will be solidly into a stagflationary recession/depression by November.

This map will be change greatly by then. It will have much more blue to it.

[yellowdogintexas]

57. heck, even Texas is showing weak Republican

and my friends who teach at university level are astonished at the excitement Obama has generated in their lily white, upper middle class, Greek partying, white bread eating, BMW driving students.

[TheFarseer]

59. Could he really lose Michiagan?

I'm a little afraid if McCain picks Romney for VP he could. This will also weaken him with Western States. He looks really good in that Iowa/Wisconsin region though, which is vitally important. Also nice to see him up in Ohio and hanging in there in a number of states that seem safe GOP.