Redistricting in 2010 could favor Republicans

[Hawaii Hiker]

But my question is, hasn't New York's population increased in each census, how are they likely going to lose seats?....


"While the 2008 elections for the House look bleak for the Republicans, with losses in the 10-20 range looking increasingly likely, there is a ray of hope for them: 2010. That is the year redistricting happens and solidly Republican states like Texas likely to pick up House seats and solidly Democratic states like New York likely to lose them. Furthermore, 36 governors will be elected in 2010 and they play a large role in the redistricting process. Of course, the state legislatures play an even larger role, so there will be a lot of focus on them in 2010 (although state senators with four-year terms elected in 2008 will still be in office in 2010). All in all, even if the Democrats win all the marbles in 2008, a GOP victory in 2010 could nullify it in the longer term. Sam Stein has the story".

Also: "Cook's conclusion is that this election is Obama's to win or lose. If Obama can convince enough people that they can trust him to make the right decisions, he will be the 44th President of the United States and there is little McCain can do about it".

www.electoral-vote.com

[fasttense]

1. Congress is irrelevant. n/t

[rox63]

2. Redistricting is done between governors and state legislatures

Congress doesn't have much to do with the process. It also has to do with where the population is growing more. Lots of people have moved to red sun-belt states like TX, GA, AZ, etc, over the last few years. If their populations grew faster than blue states, they will be apportioned more congressional representation.

[flashl]

3. Prisoners of the Census, the Prison Industrial Complex, plays a part ...

The U.S. Census counts prisoners not at their homes but as if the prisoners were residents of the prison town.

[bunkerbuster1]

7. Thank you for that link.

I was not aware of this.

There's a lot that's outrageously anti-democratic in our "representative" government, but that nasty business was unknown to me.

[trof]

4. Redistricting in my town favors whites.

And this morning a black candidate for city council and I have an appointment with our city manager.

We want to know why our historically black voting district was gerrymandered to make the district population now less than 40% black.
And the Department of Justice wants to know why also.
Should be interesting.

[flashl]

6. Gerrymandering is huge, it is the elephant in the room no one sees. Following the

boundary lines of districts one can see they follow the voting pattern of the residents. i.e. a district boundary line will hit two houses on one side of a street, skip a house, crisscross back and forth on a single block or street, until it includes a significant number of the target group.

[trof]

12. I posted more about it here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3590143

[Freddie Stubbs]

5. States like NY, Ohio and PA aren't growing as fast as states like Texas, FL, and AZ

Those rust belt states will have a smaller proportion of the population compared to sun belt states:

http://www.polidata.org/census/st007nca.pdf

[SoCalDem]

8. The housing bust is the monkey-wrench in the census

There will be a lot of people moving, as they lost jobs & houses.. Where will many of them go? back to Mom & Dad's, to share housing .. Who knows where that will be... and as the population ages, a lot of the "retirement" areas might actually lose people... Florida comes to mind...and Arizona..

[KharmaTrain]

9. The next Redistrict Won't Go Into Effect Until the 2012 Elections

The new boundries are based on the 2010 Census that won't be certified until after the 2010 election and the only way a state could redistrict before that election would be on their own.

With Democrats in control of many state houses, look for some redistricting, but not like what this author is predicting. A lot has to do not only with this election, but whose in control on the state level after 2010. If they lose more state houses, they'll lose more seats...especially in the west.

If you want to be assured of more Democrats, make sure as many state houses stay in Democratic hands...and more are added.

[LiberalFighter]

10. Every state needs to be encouraged to redistrict logically.

By that, I mean if a state has 50 state house seats and 100 state senate seats they need to determine the state house districts first or the state senate districts.

If they determine the state house districts first they can then just combine 2 house districts to make 1 senate district.

If they determine the state senate districts first they can then split each senate district to make 2 house districts.

Very few states do that. Wisconsin is the only state I know of that has something similar. They have 33 assembly and 99 senate districts. Each senate district has 3 complete assembly districts within their boundaries.

[KharmaTrain]

11. Many End Up In Courts

Here in Illinois the redistrict will begin in January, 2011 and then the fun begins. If the past is a guide, the state could lose yet another EV and try to figure out which of the 22 districts will go. The first target will be a GOOP one (assuming the Democrats remain in control) and the usual game here is to merge two GOOP districts into one and force two incumbents to run against each other. That's the easy part. Then comes the drawing of boundries...a process that can take a while and then is sure to be challenged in court. Ultimately deals are made and everything seems to work out just in time for the next election.

The problem in some states, like this one, is its three (some will say four) states in one...Chicago, the suburbs, downstate and suburban St. Louis...each with a different idea of where those boundries go and how party leadership rewards and punishes those the rank and file.

The fun should be in the West...I could see an interesting redistrict in Colorado, Arizona, Nevada and New Mexico that could turn those areas purple, if not fully blue...and with Democrats in charge in Ohio and PA we could see some interesting moves in those states as well.

Cheers...