If the U.S. becomes involved with a war against Iran, the repercussions will be very grim...

[Danger Mouse]

We sit and talk and theorize, but deep down inside, I pray that it will not happen. It will be World War III. Russia and China won't just sit by and do nothing. It is very likely that one or both will becomes involved if we attack Iran. Gas prices will shoot through the roof, and there will be shortages...of food, of everything.
There will be riots and civil chaos. Martial law, but it'll hardly matter. With our military overstretched abroad, the police and National Guard will be hard-pressed to keep order.
If we're lucky, nobody will get stupid and launch a nuke. If we're lucky.
This is what I fear will take place. We must do all that we can to make sure that it NEVER happens.
There is far, far more at stake then we realize.

[DarthDem]

1. Too Pessimistic

Russia and China will not get involved - - for the exact reasons you discuss. Oil prices would certainly be affected, but I wouldn't worry too much about food shortages and martial law.

[Danger Mouse]

5. I wouldn't be so sure...Russia seems awful trigger-happy with us.

[DarthDem]

10. How so?

Everything was pretty warm at the G-8 conference, all things considered. They don't have the ability to counter the U.S. militarily, and they know it. I'm not advocating Bushista foreign policy, but Russia and China don't concern me. And there is the whole MAD doctrine to (ironically) provide reassurance.

[Bobbieo]

7. And who is going to stop Bush if he wants to attack Iran??

Who is going to stop Bush in anything he does. Yes, I am worried. He knows what we think of him and he is going to get even!!!!

[shraby]

2. Yup. n/t

[rzemanfl]

3. Nice play on words in your username. I live just north of

Clearwater and see a lot of Scientologists, they are no goofier than other religious fanatics and generally way more polite. What I don't understand is why Iran doesn't just pull their oil off the market for 30 days to give folks a taste of what could happen.

[Danger Mouse]

6. Iran might do exactly that if they're starting to really feel nervous.

Scientologists are very polite until you are one of them then they are absolutely horrible.

[rzemanfl]

9. No chance of that and they never come to my door trying to

hand me shit.

[Fire Walk With Me]

4. Paraphrasing me?

;)

Don't worry; if there were an invasion of Iran, BushCo will profit even more, so there's a bright lining on that sad clown cloud you're painting (it's the color of money).

[Danger Mouse]

8. Well, maybe they will make more money, but will they be able to enjoy it...

with the country falling apart?

[Fire Walk With Me]

19. Did Nero enjoy himself?

These people get off on destruction because they cannot create. They get off on sadism because they cannot love.

[Blarch]

11. How does a war unfold ?

Israel attacks Iranian targets with US help, Does Iran send missiles to Tel Aviv ?

If Iran sends missiles to Tel Aviv does Israel send nukes to Tehran ?

Forget China and Russia, this shit could go nuclear without their involvement.

[Selatius]

13. If Iran puts chemical weapons on their missiles and fires them at Tel Aviv, Israel will use nukes.

I guarantee that they would retaliate with their own WMDs.

[Blarch]

17. I don't see Iran sending chem/bio weapons to Tel Aviv

I wonder if they would even send any missiles at all. After all, The US and Israel are hoping Iran would strike back in such a way, that would be the green light to crush them.

What is more likey I think is Iran sending missiles to our bases in the region. Whats in a 1300 mile range of Iran ?

[Selatius]

12. Frankly, I don't forsee Russia using a military solution to deal with Bush.

This isn't the Cold War anymore. The biggest thing that would upset Russia is that they lose a valuable customer for their military hardware and a partner in the development of Russia's next generation weapons. Russia is rapidly rebuilding its military and probably will restore its power by the 2020s. It's too soon now to even think about aggressive confrontation with the US.

The US would likely suffer terrible losses without Russian intervention, and Putin probably calculates that is what would happen when the Green Zone, Kuwait City, and other cities that are American bases of operations are impacted by incoming ballistic missiles from Iran.

China has no ability to project power to the US. They lack a sufficient blue-water navy, and it would be far easier for China to simply temporarily halt the purchase of more US Treasury bonds to support American deficit spending. With China no longer buying the bonds, the US gov't would have to either raise taxes to support a bloated military machine or cut spending, probably on domestic programs, or face a Dollar that will implode like a star becoming a black hole.

Economically, the oil shock alone would buckle the US economy, and a blow against the US Dollar would further push inflation higher as foreign-made goods made with foreign labor become even more expensive.

The economic downturn would likely be the worst downturn since the Great Depression, except this downturn would be an inflationary depression, not a deflationary depression. The level of suffering would be legendary.

The US would be where Russia was in the early 1990s, another bankrupt ex-superpower looking for a handout. With a cratered Dollar and a smashed economy, the US would be forced to move huge numbers of overseas military units back into the continental US because of lack of funds, perhaps even all units in foreign lands. It'd be the largest movement of troops seen since Soviet forces withdrew back into Russia proper following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc.

[MiniMe]

14. Not to deal with *, he is an inconvenience at this point who will be gone soon

However, they would be defending their source of oil. If there was any time ever that the US was ripe for attack, it is now with our military dangerously weakened and spread thin.

[Selatius]

15. Russia has its own oil. It's the second largest exporter of oil behind Saudi Arabia.

If anybody wanted to defend Iranian oil, it's the Chinese, since they invested billions of dollars trying to develop Iranian oil fields for export back to China, but they lack the ability to project military power far beyond their borders.

[MiniMe]

16. I wouldn't count on that

You could be right, I don't know enough about China's military. They would probably be like Russia during WWII with just their sheer numbers.

[cliffordu]

20. The Chinese could actively threaten Taiwan, and there wouldn't be any more

cheap-shit tools at the local chain hardware store. No more chatchkas at the Wal-mart.

Absolute disaster for the low information voter.

[Lorentz]

18. And when all of this doesn't happen ($10 gas excepted), what will you predict then?