MN-Sen: Ventura Won't Run

[ccharles000]

Jesse Ventura just told Larry King that he won't run for Senate. Phew.
Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters, 6/11 in parens) has released another poll of the race today:


Al Franken (D): 44 (45)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 42 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Here's what a three-way match-up would've looked like:


Al Franken (D): 34 (32)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (39)
Jesse Ventura (I): 22 (24)
Encouraging news for Franken, but it should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to be more favorable to Franken than some other pollsters like SUSA and Quinnipiac.

UPDATE: And on cue, SurveyUSA brings a very different look at the race (7/11-13, likely voters, 6/10-12 in parens):


Al Franken (D): 39 (40)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.9%)


Bizarrely, SUSA shows that Coleman's strongest voting bloc is the 18-34 demographic, who give him an implausibly high 58-31 lead. I find it difficult to believe that younger voters are Franken's weakest link, so it's hard for me to fully buy this poll and others like it from SUSA showing the same pattern.


http://swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=2497

[Drunken Irishman]

1. I think Franken is going to lose. He's not a very good campaigner.

[bean fidhleir]

2. Nor a very good humorist or for that matter very good anything, that I've ever seen

[Drunken Irishman]

3. He has his moments, I won't deny that.

But I think the transition from comedian to politican has hurt...especially when they have hours and hours of dirty and obscene jokes on you.

[ccharles000]

4. ...

I think he has a good chance of winning.