I think I see what the October surprise is this time around.

[KillCapitalism]

Dow 20,000 and $1.99 gas. What do you think?

[loveable liberal]

1. You are either on something, or...

onto something!!!

[anonymous171]

2. Gas prices were lowered before the 2004 presidential election and the 2006 election

I have no doubt they will be lowered again.

[scheming daemons]

8. Gas prices always go down when refineries switch from "summer blend" to "winter blend".

Also.... gasoline demand goes down when Summer's over.


It's not a conspiracy. It's basic economics.

[pampango]

16. Actually, not in 2004, but you're right about 2006, though 2005 best fits your theory

(except that they forgot to hold a national election that year).

In 2004, the last presidential election year, gas prices peaked in May at $2.02, declined to $1.81 by mid September, then increased to $1.98 by the election. (Poor timing by the manipulators I suppose. They should have delayed that increase until the middle of November.) After the election prices went down some more, not up, to $1.75 in January, as gas prices usually hit bottom in mid-winter.

2006 was closer to the manipulation that you refer to. Gas did peak at $3.00 in August and then decline to $2.19 in early November, but, even that year, gas prices continued down after the election to hit a low of $2.11 by the end of January.

In 2005 gas prices it peaked at $3.16 in early September and then declined to $2.41 in the first week of November, but there wasn't a national election that year. Gas prices continued down to bottom at $2.23 in February.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/ftparea/wogirs/xls/pswrgvwall.xls

[Taverner]

3. My guess is it will be an Iran Bombing

Although I have no idea how they're going to spin the positive on that one

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

4. Bush winning the Nobel Prize in physics by perfecting cold fusion to save his legacy

[krispos42]

15. Yeah, only after...

the Nobel Prize Committee was extraordinarily rendered to Syria and interrogated with "enhanced" techniques from now until then.

If that happened, Bush would win EVERY Nobel prize this year!

[scheming daemons]

5. If that occurred, it would be purely by accident....and not because anything Bush did or didn't do..

That said...


I welcome a Dow of 20,000 and $1.99 gas.


Frees up more money to donate to Obama.

;-)

[carlyhippy]

6. I foresee lower gas prices...

probably not 1.99 which would be awesome, but won't happen.

[Ian David]

7. And mice wearing little feety pajamas. n/t

[jobycom]

9. Possibly. I've wondered if the oil industry is fluffing prices so they can drop them in October

You know, building profits so they can take a loss for six weeks before the election. Coordinate that with some legislation Bush can take credit for, and share that credit with McCain.

They coordinated with Bush in 2000 in the other direction. They raised gas prices for the 2000 election, and Enron--Bush's biggest donor--caused blackouts in California to create an "energy crisis" Bush could use.

[Speck Tater]

10. The "Oil Industry" only controls 9% of world oil.

The rest is in the hands of nationalized oil companies, so the "oil industry" doesn't have the clout to control global prices that easily.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

12. We are talking two different things here:

The Oil industry is one thing. The over-speculated markets are another.

[jobycom]

13. Definitions.

by "oil industry" I'm talking here about who controls distribution of gasoline in this nation. Oil speculation has inflated oil prices--commodities are easy to manipulate short term for insiders--and control of the supply through purchases and refinery production all are driving prices up. The major oil suppliers and distributors can influence short-term prices dramatically. If they hold back supply now, they can flood the market with a "surge" around October, which would drive up supply and drive down pump prices, as well as drive down barrel prices as the commodities market adjusted. They could get Bush to use Gore's old idea about releasing an oil surge from the national reserves, to drive them down further. And no, I don't know the mechanics of how that would work, but I have a friend in the industry who does. :)

It would be short term, but all they care about is November. And no one here cares about global oil prices, only the price at their corner market.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

11. I concur.

This is the exact scenario I am seeing.

Oil is down to 131.07, 1.07 off of a major support. Someone apparently tried the whole morning to keep prices up and higher off of yesterday, but after lunch, that was it on that attempt.

I predict more of the same tomorrow, where it might bust support and if it does, then it is heading lower again.

On edit: Now down 131.02, in the time it took me to type the response.

[whistle]

14. By this October that would be the most spectacular Wall Street bull market

....in the entire history of capitalism. Are you cash ready?

[Uben]

17. Are you kiddin?

Hell, I would be overjoyed to see it hit 14,000 again by years end! I'm down about $60K this year, but I did take $40K in profit last year. I could break even for the year if it would just go backup to 13,000. This rally the last couple of days has been dampened by my energy stocks taking a big hit, as well as precious metals. I am counting on the market to rebound this fall, and being an election year, I think it will! Especially since dems stand to gain more seats and the executive!

[NightWatcher]

18. it will be a Februrary Surprise. The economy will fall into severe depression

and the repukes will run against this in 2012 and hold a majority and the WH for decades after that. Hell, they may even try to recall or impeach Obama.

[Uben]

19. Severe depression?

No way! The economy here where I live is great. Lots of jobs, wages are up, and houses are selling. Granted, we may be the exception, but Texas is a BIG state. There is a place where people can relocate to to make a living. If gas prices come back down to around $2.79/gal or so, food prices as well as everything else will follow suit, and we'll be back to where we were last year.
People who preach all this doom and gloom remind me of those who used fear to take us to war. Right now, the numbers DO NOT support what you are saying in the least. Our debt to GNP ratio is no more than that of France or Germany. A prediction of severe depression is ludicrous at this juncture.

Prove me wrong!

[scheming daemons]

21. There is no mechanism for "recall" of a President. This ain't California. Also....

The Dems will be holding the house and senate until at least January of 2011. Who, exactly, is going to start impeachment hearings?

[dysfunctional press]

20. i think that your drugs are better than mine.

nt