Assuming that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote, then based on the latest state polls, the Election Model projects that he will win 54.8% of the two-party vote with 420 electoral votes — if the election is fraud-free and held today. With 55% of the undecided voters, he will have 54.0% with 393 electoral votes. Since Obama won all 5000 Monte Carlo simulation election trials, his electoral vote win probability is 100%.
Based on the latest 5 national polls average projection (including just-released NYT/CBS and ABC polls), he would win 53.92% of the popular vote.
One might ask “What are you smoking? Nothing is 100%”. Well, based on the results of 5000 Monte Carlo simulation trials, the win probability is 100%.
...
FULL REPORT: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613But there’s a catch: It’s called Election Fraud.
The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the Recorded Vote.A massive voter registration and GOTV effort is required to overcome the fraud.- Approximately 3–4 million Obama votes will be uncounted.
Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes conventional wisdom. But that’s to be expected. Although the media commissioned the exit polls which indicated that Kerry won by 5%, they don’t question the mathematically
impossible Final Exit Poll which was forced to match a corrupt vote count. Bush won the corrupt Recorded vote but lost the True vote. Past is Prologue. It would be foolish to assume a fraud-free election.
That’s why the Election Model now includes a
fraud scenario analysis. Even assuming that 4% of total votes cast will be uncounted, McCain would need at least 10% of Obama’s votes switched to his column to win. In 2004 approximately 3% of all votes cast were uncounted. Bush stole 8.0% of Kerry’s votes (analysis below) to obtain his 3.0 million vote “mandate”.
Zogby was correct in 2004 when he projected that Kerry would win. Unfortunately, Bush won a rigged
Recorded vote. Kerry won the
True vote, but like Three-Card Monte, what you see is not what you get.
Election forecasters and complicit media pundits who projected a Bush win avoid discussing the overwhelming evidence that the election was stolen. On the contrary, a complicit media relentlessly promotes the fictional propaganda that Bush won TWO elections.These graphs display the effects of uncounted and switched votes on Obama's projected EV and 2-party vote share.
?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the projected vote share?click">Effect of uncounted and switched votes on the electoral vote...
The bottom line is: ...
MORE HERE: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=5056132004 Election Model ReviewThe
model produced a startling confirmation of the state and national models.
- In the base case scenario, Kerry was assumed to win 75% of the undecided vote.
- The Monte Carlo simulation determined that he would win 337 electoral votes.
- Both models projected Kerry the winner with 51.8% of the two-party vote.
The final 5 national poll average projection was 51.8%.
The final 18 national poll average projection was 51.6%.
The Election Model projections were based on state and national Pre-election polls.
- Kerry’s projected vote share was within 2.0% of his exit poll share in 23 states.
- The 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry won by 51 – 48%.
Exit Pollsters
Edison-Mitofsky released their 2004 Evaluation report in Jan. 2005.
- E-M discussed polling methodology and provided summary statistics by state, region and voting method.
- Within Precinct Error (WPE) is the average difference between unadjusted exit poll margin and recorded vote count margin.
It is more appropriate to call it Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD).
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPD) aggregate state exit poll by 52.0 – 47.0% (average of three measures). Unadjusted Exit Poll Recorded Vote Count
EV Kerry Bush Margin KEV Kerry Bush Margin KEV WPE/WPD
WtdAv TOTAL 51.95 47.05 4.91 337 48.27 50.73 (2.46) 251 7.37 %
The state exit poll WPD:
- exceeded 6% in 25 states for Bush and none for Kerry (equivalent to exceeding a 3% MoE)
- exceeded 4% in 34 states for Bush and just 2 for Kerry.
- was less than 2% in 8 heavily Republican states (AR, ID, IN, KS, KY, MT, OK and TN).
- was less than 2% in just 1 Democratic state (OR), the only state which votes 100% by paper ballot.
The
1:25pm FINAL National Exit Poll indicated that Kerry lost by
48 –
51%. GO HERE TO RECOMMEND: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=505613&mesg_id=505613