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How long will it take to switch us to alternate fuel sources in real time?

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LaurenG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 02:52 AM
Original message
How long will it take to switch us to alternate fuel sources in real time?
This should be a spectacularly expensive winter and I want to inform myself so that I can start letting my senators and congresspeople know that the time is long passed to do something.


I also know that converting vehicles to other sources is way too much for us average joe's. And since nearly all of us are on the grid we will pay through the nose to heat our homes. Will we have to take out short term high interest loans to go to work and keep warm this winter?


Does anyone have any good, sourced information?


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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 03:19 AM
Response to Original message
1. Good question.
I don't know enough to make an informed guess, but look forward to reading the about it on your thread.

Thank you for posting.
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 04:33 AM
Response to Original message
2. I used to work for a company related to alternate fuel soucres
back in the "gas shortage" of the late 1970's - companies then looking at coal gassification, shale oil and some solar energy technology.

To have most of our electric energy coming from renewable sources , I'd estimate 10 years.
There are a lot of beginning technologies going on right now - California and Pennsylvania are now using renewable energy sources for some small percentage of their energy use. It's already started. One problem is the technology being made available. The oil companies became power companies, and they are not going to give up their comtrol of power sources and the related money. There will be much effort concentrated on "Grid" type approaches to electric power rather than individual home/building type of power sources.
Example: Boeing has been making an extremely efficient solar cell
(Nearly 41% efficient) but it is so far being used for satellites.
A panel that fits in a shirt pocket produces more power than a conventional rooftop solat panel sold to homeowners today.

I am hoping the Democrats in Congress can be made to lean toward breaking up the grid approach, but the "energy companies" are very large campaign contributors, so I am not very optimistic.

mark
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LaurenG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:09 AM
Response to Reply #2
12. Yes I think there might be quite a few more republicans also willing to
break up the grid. Constituents can't vote if they're frozen solid. Also, overly hot, cold and hungry voters tend to vote those who won't think ahead out of office.
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comtec Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 04:59 AM
Response to Original message
3. depends on how much money you have
electric conversions run around 3k, solar panels for your house 10x that,
then poof you're alternative and semi grid.
it's all relative.
we all want a cheap, easy, fast solution
but that's how we got here.
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DCKit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 05:25 AM
Response to Original message
4. Historically, it's been least expensive to heat with gas...
oil and electric costing far more. But I feel for anyone who has to pay to heat an entire house this year. Given recent demand, I doubt that pellets, corn or wood will be much less expensive - if they're even available - than either oil or electric this winter.

Conservation is your best defense - seal the cracks and plug the holes. Unless you're burning fuel inside the house, there should be enough O2 moving through the walls and various cracks to prevent an unacceptable buildup of CO2. I've always called them "door dogs", but the bead/bean filled socks that you put across the bottom of exterior doors keep a lot of draft out and weather stripping is a bargain, though time consuming to install correctly.

As much as I've always detested the "shrink to fit" window and sliding glass door kits, single pane glass has an R value of one - barely suitable for keeping the air in, let alone the heat. Heat energy transfers from hot to cold and, the greater the temperature difference, the faster it "flows". If glass is R-1, then, aside from preventing any air movement you may have due to leaky windows, a plastic sheeted window provides no better than R-2. If visible light is passing through, then so is infra-red radiation - the heat you're paying so dearly for.

J.C. Whitney sells a radiant barrier insulation (for firewall, floor and header liners) that I've always thought would work well if incorporated into interior shutters or drapes. Being foil faced, it should reflect as much as 80% of the heat back into your home, even with cloth stitched or glued to the face. Infra-red radiation doesn't "see" the fabric, just the foil behind it.

There are also a couple of different kinds of insulating window treatments on the market, though (to date) I haven't found anyone who claimed to be selling insulating drapes. There are insulating honeycomb shades on all the major discount window blind sites. I've found American Blind and Wallpaper Factory to have the best prices and service.

Regardless, the goal is to prevent easy radiant transfer through the window treatment and, secondly, to prevent convection from air "washing" down over the window as it chills, then across the floor. The first depends on the material you use, the latter, how well it fits to prevent air movement over the glass. They should be tightly fitted to prevent air from moving at the top, sides and bottom of the window.

South facing windows are also a great source of winter heat, but you could lose as much or more than you gain if you aren't around to close the shades/drapes/blinds/shutters. A temperature controlled solar air heater is also an option if you're handy and don't mind the look of a huge black glass-faced box hanging off the side of your house. A couple of companies are also making window boxes.

You can close off any rooms you're not using - including those with plumbing - as long as you don't allow them to drop below freezing at any time. However, if the rooms you're using have walls adjoining the unheated spaces, you will be losing heat to those rooms. Additionally, pipe insulation can be used to conserve as much heat as possible in both the hot and cold water pipes. Neoprene is best for this, but it is pricey.

Of additional concern is the impact of closing vents in those rooms you choose not to heat (or to heat less). A forced air furnace and duct system are designed to heat the whole house, and messing around with the system flow might actually end up degrading the efficiency. It may be better just to lower the thermostat to whatever you can live with, wear sweats at home, heat the bathroom with a small, SAFE electric heater and sleep with an electric blanket - the only type of electric heating that makes any sense.

Additionally, if your system is older, check for leaks in the ductwork. If you've got leaks, buy some REAL duct tape - aluminum tape, not the silver colored, plastic tape - and seal the leaks. Change your filters regularly and, if you can, clean the fans and oil the motors.

Programmable electronic thermostats are also widely available and prices should have dropped to a reasonable point by now. They're BS for cooling since it can take a full week to dehumidify a house, carpeting and furniture, but work well with heating.

Hot air rises so, aside from windows and doors, most heat goes up through the ceiling, and that makes attic insulation the most important of all. If you've got open trusses in the attic, you can buy bales of cellulose insulation to dump and spread. Wear a dust mask.

Above all, don't wait until fall to purchase your supplies for any of these projects. There's going to be a hell of a demand this year.

Best of luck to all of U.S..
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Nihil Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 06:32 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. Good advice. (n/t)
:thumbsup:
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LaurenG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:03 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. Thank you! Excellent advice, I agree. nt
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Thothmes Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:08 AM
Response to Reply #4
11. All excellent advise
Here is couple of more tips to reduce electricity usage. Get rid of the electric dish washer, or at least do not use the dry cycle. Look at the size of the heating element that is used in this equipment. Cut back usage of your electric range and oven where possible. An electric frying pan, a microwave and a small toaster oven all require much less electricity to do the same job as those large resistance heating elements in ranges or cook tops. Getting away from using the electric stove in my home has saved me between $35 and $40 dollars a month for the last year.
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #4
16. I wanted to switch over to gas before winter but it's not available on my street


So I am stuck with 440.00/100 gallon oil for now and I expect that will rise as Winter approaches.

It's going to be very bad for alot of people this Winter, especially in the Northeast where Oil is still widely used for heating.
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PADemD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 05:34 AM
Response to Original message
5. Keep your eye on this company....
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LaurenG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 06:14 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Good link, thanks. Also they linked back to MIT
I don't think it'll bee too long before we can see progress in solar energy heating for the masses.

Thank you again! :7
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KharmaTrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 06:25 AM
Response to Original message
7. Depends On The Energy
I don't see one form or energy or time frame here...it will be different solutions for different needs. I even submit with the high oil prices now you'll see more corporate support and investment behind alternative energies...all with their bottom line in mind...and that's not a bad thing.

The longer these prices stay high and unstable, the more the incentive for investment and development of new energy sources...and with the knowledge that once developed those prices will go down while oil remains high. The turnaround could be very quick. We went from a steam to an oil society in a few short years.
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DangerDave921 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
9. Depends
Rich folks can do it now with solar panels. Very pricey. I've read that in about five years, with nanotechnology, there should be a significant drop in price that allows more folks to do it.

For the average guy on the street, I'm thinking at least 25 years before we see any meaningful way to convert that most folks can afford. Think of the millions of homes that run on gas and oil. This is a huge undertaking.


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Vinca Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
13. If we can go to the moon in a decade . . . you'd think. nt
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patriotvoice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:36 AM
Response to Original message
14. Amory Lovins predicts 2025 minimum, as late as 2040.
http://www.rmi.org

But, be reminded, Lovins laid out a profitable conversion from oil plan in 1978, which would have removed our oil dependence by 2000. His latest models include, of course, the move from oil, as well as a heavy emphasis on micro-generators. He asserts there is no business case for new oil exploration or nuclear.
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Marrah_G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jul-18-08 07:49 AM
Response to Original message
15. self-delete; wrong spot
Edited on Fri Jul-18-08 07:50 AM by Marrah_G
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