Expect rapid intensification of Dolly over the next six hours....

[Aviation Pro]

...the IR satellite imagery shows hot towers to the west,southwest and northwest of the convective walls. Dolly has probably entered a loop current with sea surface temperatures between 86 - 88 degrees F. The imagery also shows the development of an eye. Here's the image:

[oldtime dfl_er]

1. that looks like a big one

Batten down the hatches, and stay safe!

[Aviation Pro]

2. The outflow at the upper levels looks very good....

...it hasn't quite gotten organized but it's making its way toward it now.

[stevedeshazer]

3. From the Jeff Masters weather blog

<snip>

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The intensity forecast
The upper-level low that interfered with Dolly for so long has now moved away and weakened, and is no longer an issue. Wind shear over Dolly is essentially zero, and expected to remain below five knots over the next two days. Dolly is having trouble with dry air sucked in from the Yucatan, but this will grow less of an issue by Tuesday as the storm draws away from the dry air source. Dolly will be over waters of 28-29°C. These SSTs are slightly below average for this time of year, but plenty warm enough to support Dolly intensifying into a hurricane before landfall. These warm waters extend to a moderate depth, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential of about 40 kJ/cm**2. This is below the value of 80 usually associated with rapid intensification, but still high enough to allow Dolly to strengthen into a major hurricane, if it has enough time to do so. Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane now looks unlikely, and I put the chances of Dolly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) at 2%.

[Aviation Pro]

4. Gee, I guess I'm right....

...a decade of teaching meteorology to pilots has paid off, I guess. (Unfortunately, when Katrina was a Cat 1 off the east coast of Florida and I looked at the track and where it was heading I sounded the alarms - the track took it through the shallow water of the Everglades which had no effect on development - alas, I was one of thousands who wasn't listened to).

[stevedeshazer]

6. I know little about meteorology

I respect pilots like yourself, especially if you're a long-timer.

As a lay person, it looks to me like you and Masters are basically saying the same thing.

Looks like Dolly has potential to be damaging but is not a major risk; but these things change, no?

[Aviation Pro]

8. The next 24 hours are crucial.....

...particularly if the forecast is wrong and the storm's foward movement does not slow down.

[lonestarnot]

5. Yikes.

[Aviation Pro]

7. Yep, the breakpoints to watch are Brownsville, Corpus Christi and....

...Port O'Connor. Here's interactive map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints.shtml?gm

[lonestarnot]

10. Thanks AP

[Aviation Pro]

11. My pleasure

.....

[Aviation Pro]

9. For those who want to geek out on tropical cyclone statistics....

...here's the 2006 report.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf

[NeedleCast]

12. Most Computer Models Predict it'll be a Class 1 Hurricane

When it hits somewhere between the Texas/Mexico border.

Speaking of Storms, the 2nd named storm of the season, Bertha, was the longest lasting tropical storm on record for June, with something like 17 days as a tropical storm or hurricane. It's still in tropical storm stage and has been chugging around the Atlantic for over two weeks now.

[Aviation Pro]

13. If the models hold correct....

...and it enters the cold eddy to the NW yes. However a mid-latitude short wave is forming in the mid-West and might steer the cyclone more to the right (north) than expected.

[lonestarnot]

14. Class 2 now.