The biggest danger to Hillary Clinton's aspirations? The expectations.

[rinsd]

Now we've had ad naseum conversations about Hillary Clinton's campaign's and others attempts to formulate an air of inevitability. I myself had stated numerous times that she is indeed a formidable candidate.

But soemthing just recently struck me reading this article

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x3151885

"Considering the formidable advantages Hillary Clinton has assembled for 2008, why should anyone feel sorry for her? Because the Senator is in a trap, and many of her assets have swiftly turned into liabilities. (emphasis mine) This predicament is largely of her own making but also of changed circumstances she did not foresee. Front-runners have often fared poorly in Democratic nominating contests during the last thirty years, especially when establishment insiders promoted an aura of inevitability for them. Hillary is a candidate for the same fate.

Inevitability actually is (or was) her core strategy. For six years, talented ranks of Clintonistas have assiduously worked Washington and Wall Street to create that expectation for her. They promoted romantic yearnings for a Clinton restoration in the age of George W. Bush. They amassed awesome advantages to scare off less famous opponents or, if need be, to crush them. Senator Inevitable has all the money and brains and influential connections. Plus, she has a rock-star-popular husband, the ex-President, who's a brilliant strategist and performer.

What could go wrong? Well, things changed--dramatically--and the front-runner now finds herself scrambling to catch up with the zeitgeist. The watershed election of 2006 confirmed that Bush and the conservative order are in collapse. That inspires Democrats to embrace a far more ambitious sense of what's possible. Senator Clinton, the brainy policy wonk conscientiously calculating her next move, suddenly seems miscast for an era when Democrats are on offense and bolder ideas are back in play"

Greider is right for the wrong reasons. Clinton is indeed in a trap and it is largely of her own making.

What happened when the screwy poll showing her with a lead amongst black voters shifted after Obama declared?

Media storylines started to talk of a campaign in possible trouble. Indeed this article is a prime example of that.

This is Hillary's trap. Her expectations are so high now that to fail to meet high goals will be looked on as a failure.

She could beat people in fundraising but not enough for it to be a blow out.

She could see her position flip with her co-frontrunner or any other candidate several times between now and the primaries. Hell she could be within the MOE.

It does not matter. The media storyline will be the Clinton's floundering campaign.

Thoughts? Slings that I hate Hillary? Arrows that I am a DLC stoolie?

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Bigger Worry - She Might Take A Stand On Something

As far as I can tell, she's only twice taken a stand on something before it was all-but-decided - HillaryCare, and her criminalization of flag burning. Both were disasters.

I don't think we'll be seeing Mrs. Clinton leading on anything again...

[KT2000]

2. How about fatigue?

She started so early, people will get tired of the same old stories about her - the good and the bad. She just does not have enough charisma or stand for much of anything to bring much excitement to her campaign for the short term to say nothing of the long haul.

[WI_DEM]

3. lastest ARG poll gives her only a four point lead over Obama

her support, I think, is soft and unless she wins early I think she would go the way that Howard Dean went in 2004.

[papau]

4. Why is ARG poll so different from other polls taken around that time?

.
American Research Group poll. March 2-5, 2007. N=600 likely Democratic primary and caucus voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
.
Preference for Democratic Presidential Nominee:
.
%
Hillary Clinton 34
Barack Obama 31
John Edwards 15

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). March 2-5, 2007. Asked of Democrats, and non-Democrats who said they would vote in a Democratic presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,007 adults nationwide).
.
"Let me mention some people who might seek the Democratic nomination for president in 2008. If the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote . . . ?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"
.
3/2-5/07 12/8-11/06
% %
Hillary Clinton 40 37
Barack Obama 28 18
John Edwards 15 14
.
"If the choice for the Democratic nomination came down to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"
.
Hillary
Clinton Barack
Obama Neither/
Other (vol.) Unsure
% % % %
3/2-5/07 47 39 4 10


USA Today/Gallup Poll. March 2-4, 2007. N=482 Democrats and Democratic leaners nationwide. MoE ± 5.
.
"Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else. . . ." Names rotated
.
3/2-4/07 2/9-11/07 1/12-14/07 12/11-14/06 11/9-12/06
% % % % %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 36 40 29 33 31
Barack Obama 22 21 18 20 19
Al Gore 18 14 11 12 9
John Edwards 9 13 13 8 10
.
"Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president: Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama?" Names rotated
.
Clinton Obama Unsure
% % %
3/2-4/07 56 36 8
2/9-11/07 62 33 5
1/12-14/07 53 39 8


Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Feb. 28-March 1, 2007. N=1,202 adults nationwide. Results below are among registered Democrats and Democratic leaners.
.
"Suppose the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination in 2008 comes down to a choice between . Who would you MOST like to see nominated?" If other/unsure: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward ?"
.
Hillary
Clinton Barack
Obama Unsure
% % %
2/28 - 3/1/07 52 38 10
1/24-25/07 55 35 10
.

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Feb. 27-28, 2007. N=900 registered voters nationwide. Results below are among Democratic voters (MoE ± 5).
.
"If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were ?" Names rotated
.
2/27-28/07 1/30-31/07
% %
Hillary Clinton 34 43
Barack Obama 23 15
Al Gore 14 11
John Edwards 12 12

.
"Now I'm going to read a list of candidates who might be running for the Democratic Party presidential nomination in 2008. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, listen carefully to the names and then tell me which candidate you would be most likely to vote for. . . ." Names rotated
Time Poll .
2/23-26/07 1/22-23/07
% %
Hillary Rodham Clinton 36 40
Barack Obama 24 21
Al Gore 13 9
John Edwards 11 11
"What if your choices for the Democratic nomination were just Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama and John Edwards, which one would you vote for if you had to decide today?" Names rotated
.
%
Hillary Rodham Clinton 42
Barack Obama 30


ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Feb. 22-25, 2007. N=1,082 adults nationwide. Fieldwork by TNS. Results below are among leaned Democrats.
.
"If the 2008 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, and the candidates were , for whom would you vote?" Names rotated
2/22-25/07
%
Hillary Clinton 43
Barack Obama 27
John Edwards 14

Zogby America Poll. Feb. 22-24, 2007. N=439 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.8.
.
"If the Democratic primary for president were held today, for whom would you vote: ?"
.
2/22-24/07 1/5-9/07 12/6-8/05
% % %
Hillary Clinton 33 29 26
Barack Obama 25 14 7
John Edwards 12 13 12