Via Juan Cole,
McClatchy explores scenarios for the future of Iraq with experts. The consensus? A failed state.:
REUTERS
March 8, 2007
ADNAN AL-DULAIMI, KEY FIGURE IN IRAQI ACCORDANCE FRONT, MAIN SUNNI POLITICAL BLOC IN PARLIAMENT...If the government can manage this, Iraq's problems would be solved.
If the current security plan succeeds Iraq will move in the right direction. If it fails, Iraq is doomed to even worse.'
TOBY DODGE, IRAQ EXPERT, QUEEN MARY, UNIVERSITY OF LONDON 'Iraq is basically a failed state ... with a huge security vacuum that militias and criminals and the insurgency have stepped into. I see no evidence the security vacuum is going to be filled by anyone else but the militias. So I think that for the next six to seven years the civil war is going to get much worse as U.S. public patience declines and disappears. My best bet is that the next U.S. president, somewhere toward the end of his first term, will pull U.S. troops out or draw them down basically to focus on the Green Zone (government compound) and Camp Victory (the main U.S. military base in Baghdad).
I think the civil war will be contained within Iraq ... (But) through proxies, Iraq will become the frontline in a regional power struggle.'
AYAD JAMAL-EDDINE, SECULAR SHI'ITE CLERIC AND LEGISLATOR. 'Not all scenarios are bad. We are living in a Saddam-free era and that is in itself a good thing. The amount of freedom available is huge and that has turned this era into chaos...Unfortunately, the laws introduced in these four years are reinforcing this problem.'
JOOST HILTERMANN, IRAQ EXPERT, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP 'The most likely scenario is a failed state, with a moderately stable Kurdish region for some time and chaos in the rest of Iraq, where various parties, groups and criminal gangs will battle each other over turf, power and resources...
ADNAN AL-UBEYDI, IRAQI RESEARCHER 'I think in four years time there will still be a lot of violence. It may even get worse...
BING WEST, CORRESPONDENT FOR THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, FORMER U.S. MARINE, FORMER ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE UNDER RONALD REAGAN 'In Baghdad, there's a good chance (new U.S. commander) ...In 2008, substantial withdrawal of U.S. troops. In 2009...The U.S. press no longer puts Iraq on the front page, and it churns on relatively unnoticed, like Afghanistan. There will be no easy or quick exit.'
CHARLES TRIPP, AUTHOR OF BOOKS ON IRAQ, SCHOOL OF ORIENTAL AND AFRICAN STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF LONDON 'My prediction for Iraq would be a larger version of the Kurdistan region: i.e. powerful figures paying lip service to representational life, but running fairly effective and ruthless intelligence, security and patronage systems within their own recognised spheres of influence, having reached – through terrible bloodshed – an agreed division of the spoils...
more...Urgent: Withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq's civil war. Democrats finally embrace a deadline:
Still, Democrats see it as a major step in their effort to escalate pressure on the administration and Senate Republicans with a series of votes against Mr. Bush’s strategy in Iraq. They also said the resolution had wide support in the Democratic caucus, including that of centrists like Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, who noted that the withdrawal date was a goal with some flexibility.
Last June, Democratic leaders voted against a plan supported by Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts calling for a similar withdrawal. Democratic strategists say that support for a timetable has steadily grown because of the conditions in Iraq, what they perceive as Mr. Bush’s resistance to change and the widespread support among the public for a clear-cut end to the war.
linkLast year, Congress balked at setting a deadline for withdrawal:
Snip...
Matt Bennett, a spokesman for Third Way, a group of moderate Democrats, said his organization preferred an approach that did not set a date, proposed by Senators Carl Levin of Michigan and Jack Reed of Rhode Island. Of Mr. Kerry's stance, Mr. Bennett said: ''He feels like he needs to sharpen his position. But voters can sense when you're being resolute for convenience sake, or for political advantage.''
Some Democrats felt Mr. Kerry allowed Republicans to embarrass them in a vote last week, when the Republicans embraced Mr. Kerry's proposal, certain it would be defeated and allow them to declare themselves the party of unity and strength.
In a telephone interview on Tuesday, Mr. Kerry characterized his statement as the position of strength, and said Democrats had made a mistake not to take a firm stand.
''The Democrats need to be strong and stand up with a clear articulation about how we make the United States stronger,'' he said. ''As far as I'm concerned, we should go right at Karl Rove and his phony tough talk that is calculated purely for the election and not for a successful strategy in Iraq.''
''I'm doing what I think is the right thing to do as a policy matter,'' he said, ''for our troops and for the country. Someone else will deal with politics.''
more…Senator Kerry persisted and moved the debate on Iraq to the forefront in the media. By the time November rolled around, Iraq became a significant factor in the election, with candidates scrambling to make their (long-standing) opposition to the war and call for withdrawal known. Kerry moved the debate to focus on a deadline, and his
voice broke through the spin and defined a deadline for withdrawal as the key issue for the 11Oth Congress. When he introduced his plan last year, Senator Kerry stated why it was important to set a deadline:
"Setting a deadline to redeploy U.S. troops from Iraq is necessary for success in Iraq and victory in the war on terror. Iraqi politicians have proven they only respond to deadlines - a deadline to transfer authority, deadlines to hold two elections and a referendum, and a deadline to form a government. Now we need another deadline to get Iraq up on its own two feet. Our troops have done their part, it’s time for the politicians in Iraq and the United States to do their job.
link What a difference a year makes. From his Path Forward speech in October 2005 to a month before the 2006 election, Senator Kerry pushed for a serious discussion on withdrawal:
October 26, 2005
Speech at Georgetown University
"I want to talk about the steps we must take if we hope to bring our troops home within a reasonable timeframe from an Iraq that’s not permanently torn by irrepressible conflict."
Urgent!
More of Kerry's statements
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
