early poll indicates Rudy and McCain have edge vs. Dems with Indie voters

[WI_DEM]

From American Research Group:

Guiliani vs. Clinton 48-42 for Rudy. Hillary gets 11% of GOP voters and Rudy gets 12% of Democratic voters but among Independents Rudy has a 20-point lead 49-29.

McCain vs. Clinton 45-42 for McCain. Hillary gets 8% of GOP vote, McCain gets 11% of Dem vote. McCain wins Indies 47-33 percent.

Obama vs. Guiliani 46-41 for Rudy. Obama gets 12% of GOP vote. Rudy gets 15% of Dem vote. Among indies it's Rudy 51-34 percent.

Obama vs. McCain 46-42 for McCain. Obama gets 13% of GOP vote. McCain gets 15% of Dem vote and McCain takes Indies 49-33 percent.

www.americanresearchgroup.com

Of course take this with a grain of salt at this point in the race. But it does demonstrate how crucial the Independent vote is.

[still_one]

1. They said the 2006 election was about Iraq, yet we have this poll

Like it or not we attacked a country that had NOTHING to do with 9/11 or was NOT a threat, and over 600000 Iraqiis are dead because of OUR COUNTRY

[SharonRB]

2. This is why Gore needs to run

I think he'd get the independent vote over any of the above.

[WI_DEM]

3. It would be interesting to see how he does when polled against Rudy and McCain

frankly I've seen other polls which indicate that he doesn't really do any better than Clinton or Obama. It frustrates me to think that after 8 years of Bush that the country would be stupid enough to put another Republican in the WH!!

[skipos]

4. Hell yeah the independent vote is crucial

Look at 2006. Candidates like Webb and McCaskill took 90% of the Dem vote, while Allen and Talent took 90% of the Repub vote. Webb and McCaskill won because of the independents.

We do not want Dame Rudy to be the nominee. MSM will never try to tarnish the myth of the Hero of 9-11. Even if by some chance the Falwell, Dobson, Swaggart and Haggard types don't vote for Dame Rudy (I think they will hold their noses and do it), Dame Rudy will be able to win over enough independents to win.

The polls showing Dame Rudy beating HRC in PA and NJ was due to the fact that we was getting indy and a surprisingly high chunk of Dem voters.

[WI_DEM]

6. I agree Dame Rudy is the MSM candidate and they are building him up

and hoping he is nominated.

[TwilightGardener]

5. This means don't count out McCain...

after all the geezer issues, flip-flops, pandering, and war cheerleadering, the fact that he can draw off 15% of Dems means that he's got appeal somewhere, to someone. Though who those supposed Dems are that support more war is anybody's guess. I think the GOP may rally around him yet. He's still more conservative than Rudy, and his skeletons are known.

[porphyrian]

7. Yeah, and my ass produces a race of invisible flying elephants. - n/t

[Selatius]

8. Put those fuckers up against Al Gore and see how well they do.

I think Gore is due.

[skipos]

10. Actually, Gore doesn't kick ass in the polls either

50% Favorable
47% Unfavorable

Al Gore (D) 44%
John McCain (R) 49%

Al Gore (D) 51%
Newt Gingrich (R) 40%

Al Gore (D) 43%
Rudy Giuliani (R) 46%

Al Gore (D) 52
Mitt Romney (R) 38%

These are from Ras, but Gore doesn't fair terribly well in any poll that I have ever seen. Polls this far out aren't the end all be all, but it is clear that Dame Rudy, and to a lesser extent Weathervane McCain, have independent appeal. That is why I am hoping for a Romney nomination. He wouldn't win MA, doesn't have the blessings of MSM, and has plenty of baggage. A Newt nomination would be even better.

[cgrindley]

9. That's why we need Clinton/Obama

it's the only way we stand an even remote chance of winning vs Guiliani.

[skipos]

12. IMO, Clinton shouldn't be on the ticket if we are looking to "win"

She has as much name recognition as Dame Rudy, and is currently losing to him in blue states like NJ and PA, and swing states like OH and FL.

I don't count on MSM to make it any easier on her once she is nominated, and they seem to really like Dame Rudy.

[cgrindley]

13. No way

the mainstream media will love a clinton obama team... they will totally run first female president first black vice president vs america's mayor

but if a candidate doesn't have a handy mainstream media sound bite identity, then they'll be in trouble...

[TwilightGardener]

11. Waaaiiitt a second...who IS this polling company?

I can't find anything more about them on Google other than they have a Manchester, NH, address. Take with a grain of salt.

[WI_DEM]

14. they are a well known polling company and have been polling for years.

I just googled them and found many references to polls they have conducted.

[TwilightGardener]

17. I googled and found other polls they've done, but didn't find any other info.

I'll stick to Gallup, Zogby, Rasmussen, etc. You're probably right, they may be on the level, but a couple weeks ago the RW was pushing poll results from a shady RW pollster. I'm naturally suspicious. However, I can't say the poll results surprise me too much right now.

[AndyTiedye]

15. Neither Hillary Nor Obama Can Win. WE GOTTA HAVE GORE!

DRAFT GORE

[Poiuyt]

16. I remember seeing a poll a week or two ago that had Obama ahead of both

Republicans while Clinton was behind them