Florida Residents - start watching this -Weather folks are saying this will be Tropical Storm Fay

[malaise]

and then Hurricane Fay. Sure looking more organized now.



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200892_model.html

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving
west-northwestward at about 15 mph into the Virgin Islands. While
the associated thunderstorm activity has become more
concentrated...most of the activity is located well east of the low
center at this time. NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
aircraft are currently investigating the system to see if a
tropical depression has formed. Regardless of development...this
system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the northern Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands...Puerto
Rico...and Hispaniola during the next day or two...and interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this system.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3788262

[MountainLaurel]

1. Thanks for the heads up

I'm in NOLA and still getting used to paying attention to the weather again.

[malaise]

2. This won't be your problem - will eventually turn North-East according

to the forecasters.

[RaleighNCDUer]

9. Making it the Outer Banks' problem. nt

[malaise]

14. Possibly n/t

[Mojorabbit]

25. Don't like the looks of this model

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

[malaise]

26. Wow that model is frightening n/t

[slackmaster]

28. Fuckin-A, that's almost the path that Hurricane Andrew took

Yikes.

[malaise]

29. I just spoke with one of my nephews in South Florida

and he says they are currently on a tornado watch. They are watching this system.

[isentropic]

36. Well the weather in FL now has nothing to do with that lp area

a thousand miles away...
(I just talked to my sister in S. Florida...it's just the typical summer thunderstorms with a -chance- of tornados.)

[malaise]

37. Obviously not n/t

[davidnc76]

19. We need the rain.

[magellan]

3. Right now global models are sweeping it northward close to FL's east coast

The initial model runs had it skirting across the Keys and into the Gulf. I'm just hoping the guidance doesn't settle on something between the two. Four years on and still the idea of evacuating again exhausts me.

[malaise]

4. One model even suggests Gitmo

before Florida.

[jdlh8894]

7. Say What??? n/t

[malaise]

11. What?

Guantanamo Bay

[jdlh8894]

13. Other side of the island.n/t

[malaise]

15. Are you serious?

[jdlh8894]

34. North/South Other side.? n/t

[DemoTex]

5. WU computer models

[malaise]

8. Might be Carolinas and not Florida

Who knows at this stage?

[magellan]

10. OMG where's my valium

Please tell me my perceptions are correct and the GFDL has been the outlier on intensity and track with each run.

[malaise]

12. Valium is not what you will need if this develops and heads

your way. Check the preparation file. Still I know the feeling. I am hurricane weary.

[magellan]

16. I know, we're ready

I just wish nature would cooperate. I've been a good girl. :)

Main concern is affording a hotel and trailer rental at this point....

[malaise]

17. Yep hurricanes are not cheap

Let's hope it sails off into the Atlantic.

[magellan]

18. Fish spinner, best outlook

Stay safe, malaise.

[malaise]

24. This one isn't coming near my neighbourhood

Thankfully

[cwydro]

6. Yeah, we've been keeping an eye on that

for a couple days now.

August is when things start getting scary around these parts.:hide:

[tannybogus]

20. Great! Just aim it at SC.

Then FEMA can come back and eff up whatever they didn't eff up when Hugo hit.
:popcorn:

[monmouth]

21. Yikes, I've eaten my "hurricane" food already.....n/t

[Swamp Rat]

22. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL: TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WHILE
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE LOW
CENTER AT THIS TIME. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO SEE IF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

2. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

GOES Caribbean Imagery:

[Malikshah]

30. I'm looking to the right and a bit south of the 2nd depression (just

off the western coast of Africa)--

Let's look there in a few days and see....

[ellenfl]

23. i hope it makes up its mind before tuesday when i'm scheduled

to go to tn for a week. i need to know if i have to stay to help my mom or if it will sail by and i can go to the races. frankly, i'm hoping for a near miss because it's too dang hot in tn!

ellen fl

[slackmaster]

27. There isn't any wind shear to stop it

Look at the outflow in the water vapor loop on Atlantic Floater 1:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml

It's creating its own environment.

[magellan]

31. Am I right in thinking the turn northward

...depends on when/if the Bermuda High retreats?

[malaise]

32. Jeff Masters' blog is troubling

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1020&tstamp=200808

The ominous music is rising once more, and The Joker (also known as disturbance 92L) appears poised to develop into a tropical depression today. This storm has the potential to become a hurricane that will affect the Bahama Islands and Florida early next week.

The forecast for 92L
It currently appears that dry air will not be able to stop 92L from developing into a tropical depression later today or Friday. Wind shear is also not likely to be a problem. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 10 knots the next two days. There is the possibility that by Sunday, an upper-level anticyclone will set up on top of 92L. This would allow the air lifted from the surface by the storm's heavy thunderstorms to be efficiently vented out to the sides, ventilating it, promoting even more intense thunderstorm activity. The main bug-a-boo for 92L will be a possible encounter with the high mountains of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. After passing Puerto Rico on Friday, 92L is expected to move along the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Saturday. The high mountains of the island may disrupt or even destroy the storm. However, most of the computer models are predicting that The Joker will survive this encounter, be turned northwestward by an approaching trough of low pressure on Sunday, and move into the Bahama Islands. Once over the deep, warm waters of the Bahamas, 92L could easily intensify into a hurricane. This is the solution of the latest (2 am EDT) runs of the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS models. By Tuesday, the storm could be very near the east coast of Florida. The long-range fate of The Joker is difficult to guess. The possibilities range from the ECMWF forecast of a turn to the north with a threat to North Carolina, to the Canadian model's prediction of passage along the length of Cuba, followed by emergence into the Gulf of Mexico.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[skids]

35. K&R Yeah I knew that investigational area...

...was likely to be bad news when they first plotted the track. When they form there it's gonna hit us, basically noplace else to go. "Best" we can hope for is wind shear and disruption by the islands (sorry islands) and right now IIRC we are not getting much wind shear.

[malaise]

40. Now Tropical Storm Fay n/t

[Mojorabbit]

38. a new model

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2008081418&prod=prp&tau=000

[malaise]

39. From Jeff Masters blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1023&tstamp=200808

The latest (2 am EDT) model runs all foresee a track for 92L very close to the north coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today through Sunday. Heavy rains will be the main threat to these places, with 4-8 inches likely. Isolated higher amounts of up to 12 inches may fall in the mountains, triggering life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

In the longer term, an encounter with the rugged terrain of eastern Cuba is forecast by many of the models on Sunday. Passage over the rough terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba could severely disrupt or even destroy 92L. Once the storm finally emerges and stays over the warm waters of the Bahamas or Florida Straits, the models expect it to intensify quickly into a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane. The eventual strength is highly dependent on the track of 92L, with a longer track over water giving it a greater chance of becoming a hurricane. I think the models are overdoing the intensification of 92L once it does pop off the coast of Cuba. We saw in 2006 that Ernesto popped off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm, and took a full 36 hours to get its act together. Still, 92L may have a much longer time over water than Ernesto had, and if the storm does spend 2 or 3 days over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream off the coast of Florida, the storm could easily intensify into a major hurricane, as the GFDL and HWRF models have been predicting for several days now.

The long range track of 92L is highly uncertain. Take your pick of 8 pm/2 am EDT model runs:

GFDL, HWRF: parallel to the east coast of Florida, 50-100 miles offshore, eventually threatening South Carolina
UKMET: Through South Florida
NOGAPS: Through the Florida Keys, into South Florida
ECMWF: Through the Bahamas and into North Carolina
GFS: Through the Bahamas, then west across central Florida in the Gulf of Mexico
Canadian: Across Cuba and through the Cayman Islands, then north in the Gulf of Mexico

No model is calling for "The Joker" to recurve out to sea, completely missing the U.S.