Lots of DU fretting about Rudy. Will he even bother to run in Iowa? The New York press doubts it.

[Czolgosz]

Everyone here on DU is crazy about the Rudy buzz, but here is what the NY Daily News pointedly asks: "Some had wondered if the pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control Giuliani would skip the state’s first-in-the-nation caucus, which is typically dominated by conservative Republicans."

Newsday was more blunt:

Is Rudolph Giuliani thinking about skipping the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses next year?

He just might be. On Monday, after a campaign seminar at Harvard University, Giuliani campaign chief Mike DuHaime refused to commit his candidate to competing in the Iowa contest, which officially kicks off the race for the GOP nomination on Jan. 14, 2008.... DuHaime’s comments and the early evidence suggest the campaign is at least toying with the idea of bypassing Iowa. Giuliani hasn’t stopped in Iowa since joining the race last November, even though he’s been to first-primary state New Hampshire once, first-Southern-primary state South Carolina twice and California twice.

***

Giuliani might decide he doesn’t want to take his chances with Iowa Republicans who tend to be strong religious conservatives. If so, he’d be betting that the emergence of a mega-primary day on Feb. 5, 2008 – where Giuliani could do well in states like New Jersey, California and Florida – would diminish the importance of Iowa anyway.

It’s a risky bet, especially if Giuliani were to falter in New Hampshire and South Carolina, right now expected to be No. 2 and 3 in line ahead of the Feb. 5 states. But it’s been tried — John McCain skipped Iowa in 2000 but followed up with a crushing win over then-Gov. George W. Bush in New Hampshire. Of course, McCain’s defeat shortly thereafter in South Carolina spelled the beginning of the end for his campaign.

[saltpoint]

1. Very good post and an interesting insight into Giuliani's odds for

success.

I can't muster an objective response to Giuliani's candidacy because I think he's one of the most loathsome people who ever walked down the street.

I could see him losing it all in Iowa. Maybe he will just dump some serious cash into New Hampshire and South Carolina and hope those two launch him. Iowa definitely seems iffy for him at this point in the game.

[Czolgosz]

2. Guiliani has peaked 9 months too early. I'm wondering if Brownback or Huckabee might not benefit

from Rudy's imminent collapse.

[saltpoint]

3. I'm nodding yes to that idea, Czolgosz.

Makes good sense.

[Czolgosz]

4. A Google search of Guiliani and "skip iowa" yields over 1,000 webpages

http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&safe=off&q=giuliani+%22skip+iowa%22&btnG=Search