Which Dem can beat Rudy?

[jcrew2001]

I never thought Rudy would be the GOP nominee, but he is truly their best shot at winning the WH and now that some of the major pollsters are saying Rudy will be the nominee, I'm starting to believe them.

If Rudy is the nominee, he can flip some blue states like Penn, so we need a candidate who can keep the blue states and flip the red states.

My only conclusion from the current field of Dems who could that is John Edwards. He beats Rudy in Ohio according to the latest Quinnipiac Poll.

Hillary can't turn any swing states, neither can Obama.

Its Game Time and we need the best candidate. In 2004, Kerry was the most electable from the field, unfortunately he wasn't electable enough. We can't make the same mistake of choosing another Yankee. We need to stick with the Southern strategy, its the White House or bust.

[babylonsister]

1. All of them? nt

[Cobalt-60]

17. absolutely

This guy appears to be a dirtbag AND a transvestite.
He won't even clear the Republicon Primaries.

[skipos]

31. You have more faith in MSM and America than I do

Right now, Dame Rudy's favorable ratings are @ 70% even though he is a warmonger. He beats HRC in polls in blue states like PA and NJ, and swing states like FL and OH. In national polls, he usually beats most of our candidates. Just because WE can tell he is a flip flopping mediocrity, it doesn't mean most Amercians can tell. They think he is a 9-11 "hero" and MSM won't ever tell them otherwise. Rightwingers lined up for Bush even though they knew he sucked. They will have no problem lining up behind Dame Rudy if he is the nominee.

Dame Rudy will be the hardest for us to beat, imo.

[enough already]

69. He'll actually have a chance to flip NY

He is by far the strongest potential candidate they have.

[LSdemocrat]

46. Exacty. Here's how: Get NYC firefighters to say what they really think of the guy

[gatorboy]

2. Rudy's a Southerner?

[jcrew2001]

11. no, but the Dems need to follow the Clinton

southern strategy and nominate Edwards.

[Warren DeMontague]

51. Right. Just like the only reason Michael Jordan was such a good basketball player

and won all those games was because he was from Chicago.

Bull. Bill Clinton is the consummate politician of our time. South, Shmouth- It wouldn't have mattered if he was from Alaska.

[StClone]

25. I think Edwards

Could do quite well against Rudy in the South.

[gatorboy]

29. ANYBODY can do well against Rudy in the south.

You start showing him dressed in drag and all those little church ladies are staying home come election night.

[jcrew2001]

34. So Hillary will win the South against Rudy?

I'm betting secession will happen before they vote for Hillary.

[gatorboy]

39. The south isn't as excited about Rudy as you think.

Hell, I've heard Republicans that don't trust McCain. It's Mike Huckabee you'll have to worry about. He has the least amount of baggage over any of them. Not to mention he's a former minister that hasn't divorced and created a special health program to help poor kids when he was gorvernor.

[jcrew2001]

40. Republicans hate McCain but they still won't vote

for Hillary. Huckabee has tax issues and he's from blue arkansas, made a lot of compromises.

Repubs want a strong anti-terror candidate which Rudy is - the conservative base is not as strong as you think and its slim pickings for them. Rudy will rise above the other pretenders.

Repukes love a NAME above anything else. RUDY is The Name and they will flock though begrudgingly.

[gatorboy]

41. Most politicians make compromises.

Tax issues? Child's play in politics. And being a Blue state isn't going to mean jack to the Evangelicals. Rudy likes to wear dresses. Mike Huckabee was a minister. THAT will gain more respect for the christian right more than any anti-terror candidate. Because it means the base have a greater hope of getting their agendas ( abolish abortion, abolish anything to benefit gays.) pushed through with someone of Huckabee's caliber.

[jcrew2001]

42. Republicans care about

(1) war on terror, (2) pro-business/less taxes, and (3) religion/anti-abortion in that order.

The Fundy's are fringe and most RINO's care about money and anti-terror. Follow the GOP money and it will lead to Rudy.

Fundy's can have Skinny Mike, but he won't beat Rudy, esp if RINO Rudy has all the money.

[gatorboy]

43. RINOs? I thought we were discussing Southern strategy here.

The south care more about their values. I'm from the south. I've lived here all my life. I work with these people. I work in a newspaper. And these people write in about how they don't want gays adopting and pro-life subjects. Religion is VERY powerful in the south. And if the fundies want Mike (Which they will), the money will follow.

If I recall correctly, Clinton wasn't much of a shoe-in either until later in the game.

[jcrew2001]

56. I agree with your point about skinny mike

but I think Repubs want to win the election, so they will flock to Rudy. They know and Dems know that skinny mike can't beat any of the Dems.

[XemaSab]

3. I think a lot of Christians are going to stay home if it's Rudy

He's too much of a womanizer.

[blm]

4. Secure the voting machines and election process BEFORE election day.

.

[NinetySix]

5. It's a moot point. Giuliani cannot win the nomination.

Even if, by some astonishing fluke, he were to be the Republican nominee, the Evangelicals would stay home in protest, handing the presidency to the Democratic nominee.

[jcrew2001]

9. i used to think that myself

and the GOP/Fundy's are too power hungry to lose this election. Dobson and Falwell and Robertson will make sure the Fundy's vote.

[enough already]

70. They won't stay home if our nominee is Hillary, I can promise you that n/t

[jcrew2001]

74. Exactly, Hillary = the devil

Fundy's do not want her in the WH.

[mzmolly]

6. Gore, Obama, Edwards.

:shrug:

[jcrew2001]

7. how can Obama win

which states will he turn blue?

[mzmolly]

8. Ohio?

That's all we need if we keep the others.

[jcrew2001]

12. Rudy can win Penn according to the

Quinipiac poll. Rudy is very strong in the north. He will keep a lot of Reagan Democrats. I'm certain of that.

[mzmolly]

16. Yikes. Although, that might change when people learn more?

:shrug:

[jcrew2001]

33. Norteasterners, esp Penn know a lot about Rudy

and his marriage problems - Rudy's problem will be keeping the South.

And besides us Northerners don't care about marriage problems as much as the ultru-religious southerners.

[enough already]

71. Rudy's problems are not news in the Northeast

And he's still wildly popular here. He would have a great shot at flipping Penn, maybe even NJ and NY.

[Subdivisions]

10. All of them. n/t

[jcrew2001]

13. Rudy will win over the Reagan Democrats

He's very strong and he's not the normal GOP candidate. He's the new McCain so to speak. Rudy will win the moderates and centrists from McCain.

[gatorboy]

28. The Reagan Democrats? Now there's an oxymoron

:rofl:

I remember the Reagan years quite well and let me tell ya....Democrats weren't that fond of him ;)

[B Calm]

37. I agree. I never met a democrat that voted for Raygun. Trickle

Down Economics sucked and it was the color of piss!

[saltpoint]

14. After recent polls I see that Rudy Giuliani has early support, but I'm buoyed

by the notion that his GOP opponents are going to whittle the man down to size over the next few months.

If Rudy did become the nominee, I don't think he carries New York, his home state, against any Democrat, and I think he gets crushed in California, also against any Democrat.

He loses Iowa. He loses Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio.

Florida? A real dogfight, but I think we can whip him there also.

So while I'm a bit miffed at his early strong poll numbers I think they'll evaporate here pretty soon.

In the last couple of days, Fred Thompson is said to be considering jumping into the GOP fray. That might tilt the scales way away from Giuliani, or rather has a potential for it.

If I'm a GOP fundie nutbag, I'm not liking my chances in 2008 of nominating somebody I really like, and I might either see if Brownback runs a third party, and if he doesn't, I might stay home.

[ruggerson]

15. Definitely Edwards

My fear is that Hillary or Obama cannot win a general. Polls seem to reflect that as well.

If Giuliani is the Republick candidate, Edwards is the natural option to pick off a couple of swing states. Rural voters in Ohio, Penn, Virginia and out west are going to feel far more comfortable with John Edwards than with an ethnic sounding guy from NYC. Sad, but true.

[HappyWeasel]

21. Yeah.

We need to go with a southerner, though a Midwesterner could do as well.

[solara]

18. Any of them, mostly because

I don't think Rudy has a chance in hell of winning the republick nomination. I don't care what the polls say right now. He is damaged goods already.

Can you picture Rudy in a debate? Any one of our candidates would shred him. Besides, I think Rudy is a poseur, a political wannabe...it's not gonna happen. If he is the republick party's best shot at the WH then I think we can all breathe a sigh of relief.


:shrug: just my opinion


INVESTIGATE IMPEACH INDICT INCARCERATE

[Justice Is Comin]

19. He hasn't even BEGUN to feel the effects of

what a bruising he's going to take as every shred of his life is made public. He doesn't stand a snowball's chance on the equator of being the nominee.

We aren't even remotely underway into grinding him up and the firefighters that he was supposed to be so renowned with in New York don't even want to seen with him already.

This is his heralded claim to fame. Wait until that alone gets out.

He hasn't seen nothing yet.

[solara]

20. Exactly.. I totally agree nt

[HappyWeasel]

23. Well...

It will be fun to see the GOP to try to come up with a new frontrunner. If the war is won by next year, I am going to go and say it will be McCain, if not, I think it will be Romney. If not Romney, I think it will be Gingrich or Brownback or Gringrich/Brownback '08

Chances are it will be:

Romney
or
Gringrich and Brownback or Huckabee as a veep.


NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R). March 2-5, 2007. Asked of Republicans, and non-Republicans who said they would vote in a Republican presidential primary (from a total sample of 1,007 adults nationwide).

.

"Let me mention some people who might seek the Republican nomination for president in 2008. If the next Republican primary for president were being held today, for which one of the following candidates would you vote . . . ?" If unsure: "Well, which way do you lean?"

.

3/2-5/07 12/8-11/06
% %
Rudy Giuliani 38
34

John McCain 24
29

Newt Gingrich 10
10

Mitt Romney 8
8

Sam Brownback 2
2

Mike Huckabee 2
2

Tommy Thompson 2
1

Duncan Hunter 1
n/a

Other (vol.) 1
2

None (vol.) 3
3

Unsure 9
8

George Pataki n/a
1

.

"Thinking of these same candidates again, are there any candidates for whom you would definitely NOT vote for the Republican nomination for president?"

.

3/2-5/07
%
John McCain 20

Newt Gingrich 14

Mitt Romney 9

Rudy Giuliani 7

Sam Brownback 6

Mike Huckabee 4

Tommy Thompson 3

Duncan Hunter 2

None (vol.) 24

Unsure 22

[solara]

26. I guess anything is possible .. actually I think the Newt is gonna rise up

out of the abyss and try to "save America" with another 'contract' only this one will be signed in blood.

Oh, wait a minute.. you gotta HAVE a soul before you can sell it. :sarcasm:

:hi:


INVESTIGATE IMPEACH INDICT INCARCERATE

[enough already]

75. He was the mayor of NYC

There can't be anything that isn't already known. Do you really think the national media, owned by right wing corporate jackals, is going to go after him?

[Hamlette]

22. I think it is revisionist history to say Kerry was the most electable.

He was always my least favorite and I never understood why he won. I'm hoping the change in primaries will mean we truly do get an electable candidate this time.

If the right wants Rudy because he is tough maybe we can get Clark.

[jcrew2001]

36. kerry was the most electable compared

to Dean, Edwards, Clark, Lieberman, Gephardt, Sharpton, Kucinich.

Dean was seen as weak on national defense and from gay unions vermont.
Edwards was seen as too young.
Clark was unpolished and a late-bloomer - a strategy he wants to repeat, and he skipped Iowa.
Lieberman sucks.

If Clark stayed in Iowa, he would have hurt Kerry, but that didn't happen and Kerry won Iowa against Dean, Edwards, Gephart. Face it, it was a weak field and 2008 is still a weak field.

[Hamlette]

47. it is a weak field because they say it is

every dem then and now is 1000% better than Bush. They paint us as weak and the right wing noise machine (aka 99% of the media) goes along.

No one knows who we are or what we stand for.

Kerry was my last choice. Dean was destroyed by the media and we jumped on board. Edwards was much stronger last time than this. Clark could have pulled it off if half of our own party hadn't been saying he's not Dem enough (or long enough). Sharpton and Kucinich did not appeal to a broad enough base. Gephardt never got off the ground.

Keep saying it is a weak field and it will become one.

[jcrew2001]

59. From years of public service it can be considered a

weak field. Obama and Edwards only served one senate term. Hillary is a woman.

Biden, Dodd, Richardson have long resumes.

The Repubs will likely throw McCain or Rudy at us, do you think moderate voters will choose ideas and hope versus experiece?

Experience = strength and loyalty, and that is a compelling value.

[skipos]

55. My friends and family totally disagreed with you

We all thought that the most electable candidate
in the 1st post-911 presidential election
where most voters were looking for someone to make them feel "safe"
in an era where southerner Dems greatly outperform northern Dems
in a century were only two senators have become president

would be a 4 star general from Arkanas, not a Massachussettes senator.

Don't get me wrong, I like Kerry, but I knew that even though he was a veteran his anti-Viet Nam (Jane Fonda) links, the fact that he was from librul Massachusettes, the fact that he was a senator, etc were not going to go over very well.

[jcrew2001]

58. Obv clark had a compelling argument but he

never took Kerry on directly. Clark GAVE Iowa to Kerry and the pro-military votes all went to Kerry.

Clark is a good candidate - but he can't win by just showing up. It worked for Ike when the GOP had no other candidates.

There are too many Dems fighting for the Nom in 2004 and 2008 and Clark needs to become a polished politician and do some campaigning.

Kerry has 20 years of Dem service and loyalty and that experience and resume meant a lot to Longtime Dem activists and Iowa voters, in addition to being a vietnam vet.

Compared to Clark, who was never a Dem activist at the time, and started his campaign late, Clark never had a chance to make a strong connection to enough voters. Loyalty goes a long way in politics.

[skipos]

61. I agree, Clark's biggest mistake was sitting out of Iowa

The funny thing is, I think Clark's biggest challenge is the primary, not the general election. It is the opposite for HRC.

[jcrew2001]

73. Clark was an unpolished candidate with a

weak strategy and no democrat history. He was scared of Dean in Iowa and thought he would do better in NH. He gave Iowa to Kerry.

He's had 4 years to build party loyalists, so that may be enough for him 2008. But if he gets a late start this time, those loyalists will pick someone else by then.

Party loyalty and Party Loyalists are essential in the primary. Clark could run on the 3rd party ticket - but that would be the ultimate betrayal.

Clark should accept the VP spot if offerred, but he doesn't want it, which is sad for him and for Dem voters.

[sandrakae]

24. Any one of us can beat Rudy.

The man was married 3 times for the love of christ. Yes, that matters.

[bbinacan]

27. Richardson n/t

[champt10]

30. As of now, nobody

Right now, I think nobody can beat Rudy. I think he would win in New york and New Jersey over even Hillary, and would do just enough to win in the South. Since the november election, many strategists talk constantly about Rudy's views on social issues, and how once the evangelicals find out about his positions, they won't want to vote for him. But I ask you, are those issues still a secret? Any time Rudy is talked about anywhere, those issues are brought up, and he still is doing very well. I am getting extremely nervous and I can only hope that a third party candidate such as Pat Buchannan gets in the race and steals some social conservatives.

[gatorboy]

35. The south hasn't seen near enough of his cross dressing footage.

And believe me, that's not going to go over well when this really heats up.

Rudy is NOT going to be a problem.


But Mike Huckabee will be. Mark my words....

[jcrew2001]

38. Will Southerners vote for a Yankee Democrat like

hillary or Obama - I doubt it. It will never happen, Falwell and robertson will convince everyone to vote for the republican no matter what.

[TreasonousBastard]

32. If the election was next week, nobody. But...

the election is a long way off and Rudy is only ahead because of name recognition-- he's the only Republican "outsider" people have heard of.

Rudy's a tough opponent and has his own style of Rovian campaigning with his own team of spinmeisters, sycophants, leakers, and lying sacks-- a team raised in rough NYC politics and can give any of Shrub's people a good run for their money. Rudy's his own brand of liar. When he looks you in the eye and tells you a whopper he really believes his bullshit, and you better get out of the way.

But, over the years he pissed off every NYC worker, including the NYPD. Right now just the firefighters are screaming, but there's going to be a lot of organized opposition to him from a lot of fronts. Maybe picturing him as the tinpot tyrant he is could get him points from some quarters, but showing him as unreasonable and unwilling to work with anyone would be the killer.

Too bad teachers, nurses, and a whole bunch of other, often union, groups have had their credibility assaulted over the years-- they could be leading the charge. Rudy learned how to defuse them during his two NYC campaigns, and he won't wait long to start steamrolling them now.

[Laurier]

44. Edwards. IMO.

[BringEmOn]

45. Why are you on DU pimping Rudy?

[jcrew2001]

60. Because if Rudy is the nominee he polls ahead

of every Dem except for Edwards in Ohio. He's a huge threat to the Dems winning the WH. If you don't want to think about electability, then be prepared to lose the WH. I want to anticipate the enemy and put out our best candidate to win the WH. There are no prizes for second place.

[nansocal]

48. I know,

Al Gore would beat anyone the rightwing would put up.

[Warren DeMontague]

49. A carrot could beat Rudy.

The only people who still reliably give a rat's ass about the GOP are the Jesus-drunk Theocratic nutjobs, the folks who keep praying that one day the Republican Party will make good on their decades of promises to outlaw the birth control pill, shove all the gays back into the closet, etc. etc. etc.

Your Fiscal Conservative and Libertarian wings of that party have had it. Unlike the Christian Right Dobson/Robertson knuckle-draggers, they understand what the word "deficit" means, and they're not deluded enough to think that the magical sky fairy is going to rapturize them out of their minivans before their kids and grandkids have to pay the bill for all of Bush's bullshit.

So, the point is, the Republicans would NEVER nominate someone even marginally pro-choice.. NEVER.. But certainly not now, when the dipshit "values voter" crowd are the ONLY folks who are still enthusiastic about that shitwreck of a party.

[jcrew2001]

63. I hope you are right about the moderates

leaving the republican party - but I think there are enough greedy oil men left to push the Fiscal/anti-terror votes to Rudy.

Never count the GOP out, never.

[Warren DeMontague]

83. No one with a brain still thinks a) that Bush's behavior since 9-11 has had anything to do

with "keepin' us safe from the terra-ists" (to the contrary, his blundering around the world invading Iraq over bogus reasons has made the world much more dangerous) ..and b) that the GOP has anything even remotely to do with "fiscal responsibility".

They've been spending money like drunken shriners on a coke-and-hookers binge in Vegas.

[Warren DeMontague]

50. Also, your analysis is bogus. In retrospect, I think it was proven that Kerry was NOT the "most"

electable. And it didn't have anything to do with geography, it had to do with clarity and consistency--- on Iraq.

HOWARD DEAN would have won that election, IMHO. The lesson of 2004 is not to listen to the "conventional wisdom" nabobs about who is "most electable", and run someone who isn't afraid to tell it like it is.

Oh, and by the way- this time around, that person is named Al Gore.

[jcrew2001]

64. Well Kerry won because Clark left Iowa and

gave all the military votes to Kerry. Dean and Gephart killed each other. So Kerry won by De-Fault, the 2 sweetest words in the English language! woo hoo!

[KharmaTrain]

52. Who Cares...The GOOP is Imploding

No matter who the Repugnicans nominate, it's not gonna be a consensus candidate...and if it's Rudy who emerges, I fully expect a third party to splinter out of the GOOP if any of the top names win the nomination as the natives (xtian conservatives) are restless and none of these candidates will get their full support. That's why I see Gingrich sitting on the sidelines...either choosing to jump in the Repugnican mess if there's no clear front-runner later this year or going off on his own.

None of this is gonna matter as the political dynamic is shifting. Few pundits are seeing it, but the growth of the Democratic party in the West will be a big story in '08. We saw a big shift in Colorado last year, New Mexico and Nevada are getting more Democratic and we're seeing a shift in Arizona, Kansas, Montana and Nebraska. Add several of these states to the solid Blue North, East & West and the Repugnicans are on the verge of being a "southern party".

Polls right now are like High School popoularity contests. Few responses are on issues and with such a wide field in both parties, one can say one thing now but that surely won't be the person they'll be supporting once the electoral fog clears next year. And, as always, how can anyone predict where the American political mindset will be a month from now, yet a year or 18 months out.

I hope Rudy's the candidate...that will assure the Repugnicans split and could assure the Democrats super majorities in both houses.

[jcrew2001]

65. If we lose Ohio, Florida, Penn it won't matter if we

pick up the 4 or 5 electoral votes from NM, CO, AZ.

Rudy beats Hillary and Obama - Edwards is the only choice.

The GOP will commit murder before they allow for another Perot or 3rd party.

[KharmaTrain]

76. Lose Pennsylvania?????

Guess I musta missed something in last year's election where Democrats made some of their most Progressive and dramatic pick-ups in Pennsylvania and drove Rectorum into Faux Noise oblivion. I can't see Rudy taking New York, New Jersey or Pennsylvania with the current mess the Repugnicans have created...and that's not taking into account all that still to be revealed and, sadly, unveiled.

As far as Ohio, having a Democratic Governor and Secretary of State make all the difference in the world and the rout of the GOOP in that state will continue in '08. Rove depended on a heavy fundie vote along with Blackwell's shennangians to sneak a win in '04. Rove's toast, the fundies didn't make a difference in '06 and will be less relevant in '08 and Blackwell is more toast.

Lastly, Florida will be a surprise. Jebbie is gone and I've been pleasantly surprised with how moderate Crist has been. Again, the fundie vote in '06 barely kept Democrats from sweeping that state as well. If they're divided or feel left out in '08, that's real bad news for any GOOPer.

Ya think they'd committ murder first? What do you think they're doing? They put blind obedience in the booosh cabal and many "core" Repugnican groups feel very used and sold out. That's why you're seeing such a wide open field and no real solid candidate emerging. Boooosh has totally demoralized and polarized his own party that it could take decades for the party to get it's "mojo" back. Remember, Perot rose thanks to the unpopularity of Poppy boooosh and his "selling out" on the immigration and tax issues...guess what, these issues are still there...so is Perot...or at least his money.

Cheers...

[jcrew2001]

80. Rudy can take PA away from Hillary

Penn citizens know about Rudy and don't care about his personal problems. They also Know that Rudy is not GWB and moderate repubs will vote for Rudy instead of 'extreme lib' Hillary.

Moderate NE repubs dislike Bush, but they see Rudy as someone smarter than Bush - unlike that suck up crazy McCain.

I hope florida is in play - but i've been disappointed before.

[Hunky Dunky]

53. All of them! n/t

[npincus]

54. Gore.

Rudy's strength has been wildly underestimated by our side... remember the GOP is a party of hypocrites. They'll impeach a siting president for fooling around on his wife and nominate a serial philanderer who dumped his wife/kids for a mistress.

[jcrew2001]

66. Exactly, Republicans only care about winning

and they will choose the best NAME out there if it helps their chances.

[madokie]

57. after seeing this question for two days now my answer is Any of them

or All of them whichever. Al Gore is going to be our next President, I shit you not

[aikoaiko]

62. Rudy will never make it past the primary season.

His stance on gun control alone will keep him from winning NH or IO.

[jcrew2001]

68. Repubs will value a strong anti-terror and pro-business

candidate - there is no ideal conservative candidate here, they will let their power-lust for the WH to force them to choose Rudy.

[michreject]

67. All of them

I can't see Rudy beating anyone, not even if he ran for dog catcher.

[enough already]

72. You underestimate a republick who won in Dem NYC twice at your own risk

We need to start sliming the bastard right now.

[jcrew2001]

78. We will mis-underestimate Rudy if we

don't prepare for his GOP nomination.

[Error]

77. Jim Webb

time for an ass kicker

[frogcycle]

79. my dog could beat rudy

he has zero qualifications, and 1000 skeletons in his closet

if the dems have the guts to go after him he'll be toast

[Vinca]

81. Rudy won't be the nominee.

Fred Thompson might get in and he's to the right of Rudy and will get the 'pukes all misty eyed over comparisons with Ronald Reagan. If Rudy happens to be the nominee, I think anyone we've got can beat him.

[GreenEyedLefty]

82. I don't think anyone has really delved into Giuliani's record yet.

Even if he gets the nomination, I think the moderate wing of the Republican party may consider the Democratic candidate. The evangelicals, too, possibly, because politics aside, they will look for someone who reflects their "values."

I'm not sure Obama isn't capable of turning a swing state.