US Army Report Got Iraq Right
The report Reconstructing Iraq: Insights, Challenges and Missions for Military Forces in a Post-Conflict Scenario warned of the inevitability of terrorism and suicide bombers as a tactic of fighting the occupation.
by Pamela Hess
UPI Pentagon Correspondent
Washington (UPI) Jan 23, 2007
A month before the March 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, a team of military and Middle East experts at the Army War College published a 60-page booklet that laid out in detail the problems the U.S. military would likely encounter and how to mitigate them. Four years later, most of its recommendations apparently ignored, the report's warnings read like a history of the war.
"Without an overwhelming effort to prepare for occupation, the United States may find itself in a radically different world over the next few years, a world in which the threat of Saddam Hussein seems like a pale shadow of new problems of America's own making," said the report, entitled "Reconstructing Iraq: Insights, Challenges and Missions for Military Forces in a Post-Conflict Scenario."
"The possibility of the United States winning the war and losing the peace in Iraq is real and serious," the report said. "The effort also threatens to be a long and painful process, but merely 'toughing it out' is not a solution. The longer the occupation continues the greater the potential that it will disrupt society rather than rehabilitate it...However, a withdrawal from Iraq under the wrong circumstances could leave it an unstable failed state, serving as a haven for terrorism and a center of regional insecurity or danger to its neighbors. The premature departure of U.S. troops could also result in civil war."
The booklet, from the Strategic Studies Institute, was well read within the U.S. Army and at U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, service officials said, but it did not penetrate much higher in the government.
In the months leading up to the war the report's warnings that an occupation of Iraq would be difficult and costly ran headlong into Bush administration predictions that victory would be relatively easy and Iraq would largely pay for its own reconstruction. Both assertions, now known to be inaccurate, helped persuade the U.S. Congress and the American public to support the invasion.....
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