OIL TOO CHEAP if no Iraq War says Oil & Gas Journal in 2002

[yurbud]

The BBC's Greg Palast ran a story a year ago about a former top CIA oil analyst, who he names, telling him the Iraq War was in part to keep Iraq from producing too much oil and driving the price down.

Later, the Downing Street Minutes of Bush & Blair's planning for the war seemed to confirm this when Bush sent assurances to Russia's Vladimir Putin that a successful invasion would NOT result in lower oil prices.

http://professorsmartass.blogspot.com/2006/03/bbcs-greg-palast-iraq-war-to-cap-oil.html">PALAST & DSM STORIES

I stumbled across further confirmation in Oil & Gas Journal, the primary publication of the oil industry, while looking for something else. They seem very concerned that without the war, which would begin in four months, the price of oil per barrel would drop.

Unmentioned is that this would mean lower prices for us at the pump. So in effect, we went to war for the right to pay more for gas.

How long do you think we'd have to wait for the war to end and Bush and Cheney to be impeached if the Democrats investigated this and said it everyday?

If they are serious about getting these bastards out of the driver's seat, this is what it will take.

Most people call it honesty.

Democrats should try it instead of just telling nicer lies than the Republicans.

KEY EXCERPTS:



Market hotline: OPEC faces bigger challenge without Iraq war
Bob Williams. Oil & Gas Journal.
Dec 2, 2002

OPEC price threat

Absent a war, says CGES , the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to make substantial output cuts to keep oil prices from falling below the floor of its $22-28/bbl official target price range (for a basket of OPEC crudes).

Noting that the price of oil had fallen by $6/bbl from mid-October to mid-November, the London-based think tank said that the OPEC 10 (excluding Iraq) had opted for boosting production in October. With Iraq doubling oil exports to 1.7 million b/d in October, that hiked total OPEC output by 1 million b/d that month. "Unless Iraq's oil exports collapse again, the rest of OPEC needs to begin curtailing overproduction to prevent further falls in the price in the coming months," CGES said.

***

This could be achieved without changing quotas, for OPEC 10 production would need to fall to 22.6 million b/d, still almost 1 million b/d over the current 21.7 million bid group quota. Without such restraint, oil prices would start to drift down towards the lower end of the OPEC price band by yearend, says CGES. Failure to act immediately, the think tank warns, would then require a cut of 1.5 million bld in second quarter 2003 just to keep Brent crude at $18.50-20.50/bbl next year.

"OPEC cannot afford to wait for a disruption to Iraq's oil exports to bring the oil market back into balance," CGES said. "The threat of war will linger until Iraq is given a clean bill of health by the UN's weapons inspectors.

"In the meantime, there is too much oil in the market for OPEC to achieve its price target unless, in an uncharacteristic burst of altruism, OPEC accepts that the global economy needs cheaper oil."

http://www.ogj.com/display_article/162743/7/ARCHI/none/none/OPEC-faces-bigger-challenge-without-Iraq-war/">LINK TO FULL TEXT ARTICLE
(requires subscription. If you find a free link to this, let me know).

OIL MOTIVE for Iraq War resources
http://professorsmartass.blogspot.com/2006/09/iraq-oil-war-resources.html

[havocmom]

1. K & R

and I will keep on kicking until my kicker wears out.

The outrage is overwhelming.

[tblue]

2. Iraq's oil production was kept in check for decades for the same reason. The sanctions were about

to be removed, and the industry had to keep Saddam and his oil reined in. It's so disgusting, so foul, there are no words to describe this as a justification for this


and this






We owe such a debt to the Iraqi people.

[yurbud]

8. any chance that crying kid will love the US?

[tblue]

10. EVER?

[yurbud]

20. I always think of that kid who got his whole family killed and arms burned off in "Shock & Awe"

I'd like him to meet Bush, Cheney, or Rummy some day.

[raccoon]

24. Ali Ismail Abbas. Thoughts of him haunt me too.

How could the Iraqis NOT hate us?

Thanks for posting this. K&R.

[yurbud]

30. I gave one of the first BBC articles to my class for an assignment on effects of war on Iraqis

He said he wanted to be a doctor then wondered how he could do that with no arms.

The Brits were so moved by the story people sent in money to get him his prosthetic arms.

[yurbud]

31. I sent that to a radio show whose host was not overtly righty and they said it was probably faked

as were other pics of injured and dead Iraqi kids.

The BBC might as well be the Narnia News Service to most Americans. Foreigners only vaguely exist.

[raccoon]

35. What a bunch of dickheads.

"they said it was probably faked as were other pics of injured and dead Iraqi kids."

Well, of course just because the country was bombed doesn't mean anybody was injured or dead.

:sarcasm:

The bombing was all very clean and antiseptic, don't you know? :sarcasm:

Those morans (sic) at the radio show--it's hard to think of a way to express how effing stupid they are. Heads up arses, in denial....wow, such stupidity boggles the mind.

[yurbud]

41. now I might have to go back and find it.

[raccoon]

43. Please post it if you find it. nt

[Xipe Totec]

3. No amount of I told you so's makes up for this clusterfuck

The Coming Energy Crisis? (Oil Industry warned of Iraq war consequences)

As submitted to Oil & Gas Journal for publication February 3, 2003

All warning signs that existed prior to the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today. Various energy security measures indicate that the potential for an energy shortage is high.


Various measures of US energy security indicate that the US might be heading for an energy crisis. Many of the warning signs that existed before the energy crises of 1973 and 1979 exist today and they indicate that the current situation could be even worse. US dependence on petroleum imports has grown steadily for over a decade and has been at record levels for several years. Petroleum inventories are low and the ability of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and commercial petroleum stocks to cope with an interruption in imports matches the historic lows preceding the 1973 and 1979 energy crises.

The potential for an energy crisis has never been higher. Oil prices have recently exceeded $30 per barrel and they may continue to increase. The disruption of Venezuelan oil supplies has increased the US dependence on Middle Eastern oil and made the US more susceptible to supply interruption. With the crisis in Venezuela, the capacity of OPEC to meet any additional supply interruption is limited and a war with Iraq would put OPEC at its limit. Any energy crisis in the near future will hinder President Bush’s efforts to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and other fiscal measures. An energy crisis could cause a recession, inflation, and higher unemployment.

http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html

Did somebody clue in pResident Chimpy, the oil expert?

Here is my original post on this subject, from Oct-05-2004

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x77290

[yurbud]

7. crisis for us is opportunity for them. If we had prepared for peak oil, they couldn't charge

extortion prices could they?

Our government answers to those handful of corporations, even if it costs us our lives, as it has our troops and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

[pwb]

4. Bush-Saudi oil pumping at full speed though

strange how shit happens.

[AzDar]

5. Kick...n/t

:kick:

[happydreams]

6. It's big oil's mainstay: restrict production to increase cross.

This is true of many goods. War also profits those who arm (Carlyle) and those who rebuild (Halliburton, Bechtel, et.al).

IMO modern capitalism is dependent on war for its very survival.

[Nickster]

12. As well as limit or reduce the number of refineries so finished product is slow to market. n/t

[yurbud]

21. just like they did with electricity here in California--"oh, those power plants are off line..."

"and we sold the rest of the electricity out of the state. But maybe you could buy it back if you can pay enough..."

[raccoon]

25. I don't understand what you mean.

"restrict production to increase cross."

[yurbud]

9. Question for candidates: how big does my company have to be before you'll kill for me

How big does my garment sweatshop, banana plantation, or oil company have to be before you will overthrow governments and crush babies heads, and run up half a trillion dollars in debt?

If no size is big enough for that, what will you do to stop big oil from dictating our foreign policy?

[stubtoe]

11. Holy shit.

Recommending.

[yurbud]

14. you just made my day. Be sure to take a look at the related links

[yurbud]

13. vote this up on netscape so others see it (LINK)

http://news.netscape.com/story/2007/03/11/oil-too-cheap-if-no-iraq-war-says-oil-and-gas-journal-in-2002

[havocmom]

15. Kick it again

yes, I am still fuming.

[BeFree]

17. I see your kick

And raise you a fume.

It's all about the oil.

[IChing]

16. Kick and nominated--- hadn't seen that oil and gas article

and yes an open link to the article would be really fantastic to spread on the net.

[yurbud]

18. I got it through school database that isn't open to the public.

[yurbud]

19. vote it up on buzzflash.net too (LINK)

http://www.buzzflash.net/story.php?id=8531

[yurbud]

22. If this pisses you off, be sure to let your congressman and senators know

Find your congressman by zip code in the upper left hand corner:
http://www.house.gov

Find your senators by state in the pull down menu in the upper right hand corner:

http://senate.gov

[leveymg]

23. If Iraq's Oil Production reaches prewar levels, Halliburton loses their contract to "Fix" the fields

As for Halliburton, in general, I'm much more concerned with the company's $10 billion single-source contract for "fixing" the Iraqi oil fields and pipelines, something they haven't managed to do for four years. You see, written into the LOGCAP contract is a clause that allows the company to renew the contract until Iraqi oil export levels reach pre-war levels. That hasn't happened, for a lot of reasons, and Halliburton is prime contractor for the fourth extension, LOGCAP IV.

Whoever wrote the terms of that procurement offer, understood the real agenda of the oil industry. It most certainly isn't oversupply.

[havocmom]

26. Kick for the Monday gang

This is important to consider and share

[yurbud]

29. muchas danka

[havocmom]

34. De nada

:toast:

[rman]

27. Palast is a Peak Oil denier

Unlike what Greg Palast claims, Peak Oil is not "sudden collapse". Mr Hubbert (the 'inventor' of Peak Oil) nor anyone in the Peak Oil movement has ever claimed that.
Yet that's what Palast keeps saying.

---

Palast:

"In his 1956 paper, Hubbert wrote:
On the basis of the present estimates of the ultimate reserves of world petroleum and natural gas, it appears that the culmination of world production of these products should occur within a half a century (i.e., by 2006).

So get in your Hummer and take your last drive, Clive. Sometime during 2006, we will have used up every last drop of crude oil on the planet. We’re not talking “decline” in oil from a production “peak,” we’re talking “culmination,” completely gone, kaput, dead out of crude—and not enough natural gas left to roast a weenie. In his 1956 treatise, Hubbert wrote that Planet Earth could produce not a drop more than one and a quarter trillion barrels of crude."
http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2295/No_Peaking_The_Hubbert_Humbug
http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2297/Why_Palast_Is_Wrong

Here is a solid response.
http://www.energybulletin.net/16284.html

---

Not mr Hubbert nor anyone in the Peak Oil community has ever claimed that the nature of the "peak" is that production abruptly drops to zero once the peak is reached. Just look at the graphs illustrating peak oil, and read what Hubbert et all are saying about it.

If Peak Oil would be sudden collapse, the Peak Oil graph would not look like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

This is what Peak Discovery looks like:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

M. King Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies
http://hubbert.mines.edu

[yurbud]

28. I disagree with Palast on that too, though he bases it heavy oil and solids like tar sands

and shale oil that aren't practical to extract until the price of oil is high enough to make the higher extraction costs worth it.

I just saw a pic of how they extract those tar sands the other day. It looks a lot like strip mining.

I think Peak Oil is real, but Palast is closer to right about the slope of the downside.

Back when gas was 50 cents a gallon, crushing rocks to get oil probably seemed absurdly expensive.

[rman]

32. You mean Palast thinks the down slope will be steep

because of tar sands etc?
Palast also says the down slope should be now (according to Hubbert et al) - in spite of there still being lots of tar sand etc (which are not just expensive but also slow to extract).

[yurbud]

38. I don't know if tar sands and the like were included in Hubberts thinking

that slow, expensive process would have seemed nuts in the 50s when oil was so cheap, but now it looks profitable. That might move the end point out, but not negate the basic idea that the earth aint making more of the stuff fast enough.

[rman]

42. Doesn't matter much -

Including tar sand etc, the down slope will just be longer, it won't push back the peak by much.
I think Hubbert did realize that with oil becoming increasingly rare it will become more expensive, which will make tar sands etc a viable source. Tar sand fits perfectly with the notion that a resource becomes harder to extract as it gets depleted, which is the basis for the Hubbert peak.

[pberq]

33. Kick & Nominated

[MasonJar]

36. Does anyone know how to send this to all the dems in Congress?

If so, please do it. I personally have no clue.

[havocmom]

37. Write a letter saying this issue is VERY important & troubling

Copy/paste some excerpts and provide links to the entire information online. Write a paragraph or two outlining why you know this is an important issue which seriously and adversely affects America. Mail the letters.

Here's links to start you on the way to gathering addresses.
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm
http://www.statelocalgov.net/


Would make some great fodder for LTTE too. ;) The more people we get asking embarrassing questions about this, the better. When the people lead, the leaders WILL follow, or we fire their asses.

[yurbud]

39. related question: we gave big oil Iraq--what did we get back?

[havocmom]

40. wounded vets, the world's scorn and a mountian of IOUs

Some deal, huh?