Are we headed for a second Great Depression?

[meldroc]

Poll question: Are we headed for a second Great Depression?

I'm seeing all the signs of it. The housing bubble's about to burst, which will screw millions. Gas prices are going back up, and Bush is saber-rattling at Iran again. If Bush attacks Iran, Iran will use their Exocets to shut down the entire Persian Gulf blocking shipment of oil from most of the Middle East, which in one estimate, could cause gas prices to go up to more than $7.00 per gallon at the pump. Foreign investors are bailing out, the government and most Americans are swamped in debt, and now the stock market is showing signs of an imminent correction.

What do you think?

[MindBoggles]

1. As a cusp GenX/Yer, YES

I am educated and qualified and so are many of my friends, who all hover around the 3 decade mark. Almost to a man, we are making around $25K a year, struggling month-to-month with no savings, have not- insubstantial credit card debt and substantial student loan debt, and cannot conceive of ever being able to afford to buy a house. About half my friends have no health insurance.

Consumer debt.

National debt.

Rising Chinese and Indian middle classes.

Imperialism-fuelled hatred towards us worldwide.

A degenerate, anti-intellectual, lazy culture.

Yeah, I'd say we're toast. I give it 20 years.

[IADEMO2004]

9. Sounds just like me in '73

10 years later better 20 years better sill 30 years shit when did I get old?

[GliderGuider]

37. The World Problematique

It's coming home to roost, and it wants inside like right f'ing now:

Air, Water and Soil Pollution
Climate Change
Deforestation and Desertification
Depletion of Ocean Fish Stocks
Depletion of Soil Fertility and Fresh Water Reserves
Decline of the Global Grain Supply
Species Extinction and Biodiversity Loss
Social, Economic and Geopolitical Instability
And the real killer: Peak Oil and Natural Gas Depletion

Try reading Kunstler's book, "The Long Emergency", or visiting Matt Savinar's web site, http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Not only is the coming depression going to eclipse 1929, but it's going to keep getting worse and worse, and it's not going to end in our lifetimes or that of our children. I know it sounds apocalyptic, but all the signs of this one have been peer-reviewed.

[brokensymmetry]

42. Exactly. It will be worse for so many reasons.

One big one - the coming of mass famine.

Kunstler's Long Emergency should be read
by everyone.

[melody]

47. Forgive me, but this amazes me

If you live in the US and you honestly believe the US is heading for such a scenario (and I mean beyond a personal wish to see this happen for your own political/social reasons), why on earth do you still try? Why not crawl off in a cave with survival tools? If I honestly felt as you guys do, I'd shoot myself. lol Why even go on? Why even try? Find a piece of land, plant a garden, hide from the world.

[MindBoggles]

52. cause there is a chance that it might NOT happen

obviously.

and, even if it does happen, I want to have a damn good time first.

"When its my turn to march up to glory
I'm gonna have one hell of a story"

[melody]

54. Not obviously

I mean really ... any good time we can have before then will be more than made pointless by the misery to come.
As for "marching up to glory", I don't believe in fairy tales.

It just seems pointless to even try, given your frame of reference. Then again, are you in the UK? Maybe that's
why you're more hopeful about what is supposedly to come.

[GliderGuider]

57. There are a number of very god reasons not to crawl off into a cave

But first, it's not just the USA that will feel this. The problems we face are global in scope, and the entire intricate, interconnected, over-elaborated structure of industrial civilization itself is at risk. For this one, you really need to think big.

The main reason not to crawl into a hole and give up is that no catastrophe, however big, is going to spell The End for our species. There are 6.6 billion of us (give or take) and some will make it through, no matter what happens. Those of us who have a hint of what's coming have a responsibility to our fellow man to ensure that as many as possible do make it through, and that the conditions they encounter are as favourable as possible for rebuilding. This means promoting behaviour that enhances the resilience of society as much as possible.

Resilience is the key, and there is a lot of work being done in this area by a group of scientists specializing in the ecology of complex systems. As a system grows, it gains in productivity, efficiency and interconnectedness, but loses resilience. That loss puts the entire system at risk of cascading chains of failure whenever it is subjected to external shocks. As such a system declines, it loses its connections and efficiency, but gains in resilience. The key to making such a decline survivable is to encourage the reduction of connections and the loss of efficiency in advance of any collapse. This means promoting such things as small, decentralized communities, local production of food, goods and services, local power generation. Essentially we need to reverse all the trappings of globalization as much as possible, because it is the tight interweaving of widely separated parts of our civilization that has put us at terrible risk of collapse, even while it has provided many benefits such as cheap, universally available food, goods and services.

So no caves for this Chicken Little, but I will spend as much time as possible outside in the market square standing on a soapbox.

[Tellurian]

63. Good points, all..

I believe the rest of the world are disconnecting from the US, essentially not to be taken down, when the US economy fails.
It is the citizens of this country that will suffer most while the rest of the world ticks along with nary the skip of a beat. Resilience is not a commodity easily attainable, especially in the aftermath of Katrina along with the catastrophic events happening weekly in our homeland.

I'm afraid the word resilience, usually reserved after successful triumphs, won't suffice in the long haul. The cold hard word SURVIVAL needs to be the word to spur Americans to do what has to be done to attain resilience.

[melody]

76. Again, it's a choice in perspective

If you want to see it as the end, it will be the end. And COLD SURVIVAL for those without
the mental energy to survive, is the end. So I guess we should pass the cyanide caps around.
:sarcasm:

[Tellurian]

82. Well, sarcasm or no..

It isn't a good idea to homogenize all three words into being thought of as synonymous.

The key word is 'survival'. Many people are doing that now. The homeless, the unemployed, the people about to lose their homes. We're at the tip of the iceberg and many won't be able to survive much longer without some type of state relief... that is already a given. The next tier are those teetering on the edge. Hopefully they are resourceful enough to hang on!

[melody]

84. I'm beginning to think y'all must have a much better standard of living than I do lol

I live in a paid-for little house in Southern California. I live frugally. I've paid off all my bills. I have
savings. People at my level will survive quite well. The people in McMansions with two cars, well, they'll
have to slide aways, but they'll be okay, too. It may be that you guys are a lot farther up the tree than I am.
The drop isn't so far for me. lol

The key -- now -- is to scale down. That will make the economic dip seem far less disastrous.

[melody]

74. Resilience is the key for the resilient

I often make this point when apocalypse soon threads present themselves. It's an academic exercise perhaps, but I think it's
an important one to make. Some people take almost orgiastic glee at the prospect of such huge, horrible things
happening. They all huddle together and excite each other with, "Ooooh, it's all gonna go down in terrible fashion
and then we get to rebuild" celebrations. The same thing happened during the whole Y2K thing, the same thing happened
(here locally) when we went through a cluster of earthquakes a number of years ago (people on message boards assured
each other the end was near and happily, almost enthusiastically prepared for it). The same thing happens here ...
there must be five different apocalypse soon themes that have cropped up here, with many of the same participants,
over the last few years. When such claims are challenged, the participants angrily fight back, as if their dreams of
utter destruction are being threatened.

Y2K came and went, we survived ... the cluster of earthquakes led to the greatest period of seismic inactivity in the
region in years ... and almost all of the scenarios we've stressed about have never come to pass. Now absolutely, one
of them may, and then like the hypochondriac who dies we can write on our tomb, "I told you I was sick".

You folk may get pumped up at such dire scenarios, but there are many people reading this board who are clinically
depressed. I was trying to make the point to y'all, that those people would read this thread having those thoughts.
You have responded with your own reasons, but those are the reasons of people who are not clinically depressed. That's
why I make the points I do. Should you not say these things? Of course you should, if you think them. But not everyone
sees a huge disaster as this exciting challenge. They don't necessarily make the associations you do that we'll get
through it. They see only the end.

This is why I make the point -- we will get through it, we will survive, we will prevail. Bush and Co. will be brought
to justice, if only by the hatred of history. And all those countries rubbing their hands together with glee at the
prospect of our utter destruction just may see us come back even bigger, even better. And the Anglo Aristocracy to blame
for our destruction (the Neocons and their brothers in the Henry Jackson Society in the UK and elsewhere ... poor Scoop
has had his name appropriated as camouflage, nothing more) may well find millions of deeply pissed off Americans, once
the young people figure out what has happened to us over the last forty years. Then I feel sorry for the innocents who
will be in the way of their rage, but such is the way of history.

I was just dotting the i's and crossing the t's that weren't being made in your posts. Not everyone goes from challenge to
solution. A lot of people see only the end. I don't think any of us want to trigger somebody's suicide, simply because
we're celebrating the opportunities of the apocalypse. lol

That is all ... I'll hesh now.

[earth mom]

78. Be in denial if you like and ignore the people of Katrina & Michigan &

the unemployed, underemployed, the busted unions, the outsourcing, the insourcing-feel free by all means.

But don't diss those who are looking REALITY right in the face and are worried and alarmed-NOT GLEEFUL-about what they see-which is the rampant destruction of this country and our way of life.

That's MY two cents.

[melody]

79. I am looking reality in the face

But apparently you didn't read my post. lol

[earth mom]

83. I read all your posts-all your posts that have totally hijacked this thread.

Don't know what your motives are, but I do think you need to educate yourself.

And oh yeah, lol. :eyes:

[melody]

85. Hijacking? Not in the least

But forgive me for injecting some cold reality into your end-is-near drama.

And if you had read my post, you'd know why your post missed my points. I'm just trying to point
out the ramifications of your actions. If you want to live in an "End is Near" fantasy world, be my guest.
You'll be like all the other people on Jan 1, 2000 with tons of MREs and no market for them.

My "motives"? What are your motives? lol You certainly seem to get very angry at the promise of your
apocalypse being challenged -- to the point that you heap ridicule on ridiculous things. I HAVE
educated myself. Anyone reasonably advised (by all sources, not merely ones we want to believe) knows
that the middle road will be found. It's a necessity for economic survival at every level.

Incidentally, if you believe in economic collapse and destruction, why are you even politically active for
2008?

On second thought, don't bother answering that -- and welcome to my ignore list.

[earth mom]

86. What's happening is hardly "drama" but actually cold hard REALITY.

Many people on this thread have educated themselves and understand history and can connect the dots with what happened in the past with what's happening now-we are hardly ill informed and don't know what we are talking about.

Like others on this thread, I would rather sound the alarm so that people are aware of what's going on instead of being blindsided because propaganda like yours is flung at us all every day by * & Co and the corporate media whores who continually LIE and say that everything is "fine", "nothing to see here-move along now", "no worries".

But hey, feel free to buy into the reich wing lies and bullshit. But don't fault those of us here on Democratic Underground who are smart and savvy enough to choose not to.


Ignore list? Check.

[pampango]

101. Hijacking = Discussion rather than multiple post agreeing with

each other.

[melody]

102. yup lol n/t

[Tsiyu]

105. I don't see what you're seeing

Could you provide links to all the posts where DUers are gleefully envisioning the end times?

Could you, perhaps have us confused with some other board somewhere? I have never read such a thing here. Ever.

Smug a little? I, too, live in a "paid for" home and I won't have far to go either if there is an economic landslide. Unlike you, apparently, I do have concern and compassion for my brothers and sisters in America, and the only posts I've read here are posts offering ways to cut expenses now so that folks can have a bit left if the SM does crash out.

I haven't seen one person "gleefully" anticipating the end times. I have seen a lot of realists sizing up the situation and saying, " wow, prepare just in case."

If there is something wrong with being aware, i'll just have to be wrong. I am 48 tomorrow. Seen and done a lot, and things are worrying me more than ever in this life.

If everything is great where you are, fine, but your ascribing some cruel mentality to DUers only trying to make sense of it all is well....immature and not grounded in facts.

Provide links, please.

[melody]

112. boy, that comment really got to you

I was making a snide overstatement. It only applied to a couple of the people posting.
It really seems to have touched a nerve with you, though. So much so that you've ignored the
phrase "as if".

[Tsiyu]

114. Huh?

You go on and on about "you folk" making the whole world depressed and now it's only a few who are doing this?

M....kay


:yoiks:

[melody]

116. Actually, don't bother reading any of it

I went "on and on" about the people to whom I was addressing the comments. :wtf:

On second thought, I believe you were once on my ignore list, which means you're
a reactionary or a troll. I reset that at the beginning of the year but, once again,
welcome to my ignore list.

[Tsiyu]

119. Okay. Suit yourself. : )

To those NOT ignoring me:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man


Thank you.

that is all.......:hi:


Edited to say: I rarely ignore anyone and meant to say "to those NOT ignoring me." I enjoy good, healthy debate. I do NOT enjoy posters who claim to have read something on DU that they never really read here. You can always get these types by asking for links.


If you are going to make a claim, be prepared to back up your claim. Putting people on ignore does not support your argument and is no substitute for honesty.

NOW I'm done :)

[Leopolds Ghost]

93. My only comment is, America can't just keep coming off "even bigger and stronger than before"

At some point it becomes like the Athenian empire, detested for its continual efforts to bleed other countries dry in order to ensure the economic success of the "democratic experiment" at home.

[melody]

97. I said"even bigger, even better", while using my own meaning for those words, not yours

You assume I mean with the same core definitions. I do not. One can micromanage, better utilize resources
and indeed "even bigger, even better".

We're not damned to repeat the Athenian example. We can and will find our way out of this. Where we are
is the handiwork of a small number of powerful people who've attacked our educational system (thereby creating substantial
numbers of people so ignorant, they'll swallow Fox Noise), overshadowed our media, attacked our governmental
infrastructure and thereby created the problem. It's localized cancer (the Bush cabal and its allies in Europe).
It'll be hard to find it all, but at least we knows its pathology.

[MindBoggles]

68. I am an atheist

Just quoting the Dixie Chicks because of the sentiment.

[Leopolds Ghost]

91. If you don't believe in fairy tales, why do you believe in continued exponential progress/growth?

Do you imagine some glorious future where we end up as a Galactic Empire
importing resources from other planets and exporting the remnants of our
natural ecosystem to "natural reserve planets"?

That is the secular version of James Watt's apocalyptic vision: "by the time we run out of energy resources, we'll have all blasted off into outer space."

And no, fusion isn't working out very well for us. Even if it did, it would power a frenzy of planet-destruction leaving us with no biomass other than ourselves. Either that, or we hit a brick wall. There is no such thing as uninterrupted future growth.

[melody]

96. Now there's a massive leap without context

I have said none of this. I suggest you re-read my posts.

[Tsiyu]

106. Kind of like this leap?

"When such claims are challenged, the participants angrily fight back, as if their dreams of
utter destruction are being threatened. "

Who the hell here dreams of utter destruction? Links, please?

Leaps, indeed....

[Tsiyu]

110. Hmmmm I hear crickets

chirping away......

:rofl:

[melody]

111. If the comment doesn't apply to you, it doesn't apply to you

I said "as if their dreams", and I stand by that ... and I honestly think a couple of people in this
thread get off at the idea of the US being destroyed.

The very fact you feel pugnacious enough to defend someone else's comment underscores the implication it
had for you.

[ceile]

81. Seriously considering it,

but the cost of land is even too much. I'm being 1/2 sarcastic with this. We don't want to bail on our great city, but the country is looking better and better. And my first attempt at a garden was quite pathetic.

[melody]

88. There are plenty of cheap places to buy land

Rural areas, high desert regions, etc.

And try for container gardening. I always do better with that.

[brokensymmetry]

89. So, here's an answer:

It isn't just the US that's headed for hard times,
it's the world. And finding a place to go to that
will be better if is problematic.

And, too, there's no reason to go off into a cave.
It's not like that's a solution. I work for the
best, enjoy life day by day - and prepare for
much more difficult times.

Prepare how? Oh, little things. Like not
getting a big screen TV or a new car. And
keeping those credit cards paid off.

[melody]

98. Of course it's a solution

>It's not like that's a solution.

Of course it is. Heading off to a cave, staying away from society, would definitely help one's
situation, in such a dramatic scenario as global blight and the coming economic ice age.

>I work for the
>best, enjoy life day by day - and prepare for
>much more difficult times.

You can do that. That's fine. My point is there are people reading this thread who can't do that --
you (and many of the other people in the thread) seem to get excited by the roller coaster ride to
come. Lots of people become terrified to the point of paralysis. I make the point for those people --
they're imagining a far bleaker scenario than the one you've painted, believe me.

The "horrors" you've outlined -- not having a big screen TV and new car or credit cards -- are hardly
on a par with the Great Depression. I've never had a big screen TV in my life. We've driven the same
used car for nine years. I don't consider either a necessity or even a desired commodity.

Like I said, I suspect you guys are living a lot higher up and so the ground seems farther away. A
little prudence in everyday living resolves that problem.

[Strelnikov_]

104. "Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply"

. . .the withered leaves of industrial enterprise lie on every side, farmers find no markets for their produce, the savings of many years in thousands of families are gone. More important, a host of unemployed citizens face the grim problem of existence, and an equally great number toil with little return. Only a foolish optimist can deny the dark realities of the moment.

Yet our distress comes from no failure of substance. We are stricken by no plague of locusts. Compared with the perils which our forefathers conquered because they believed and were not afraid, we have still much to be thankful for. Nature still offers her bounty and human efforts have multiplied it. Plenty is at our doorstep, but a generous use of it languishes in the very sight of the supply.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, Inaugural Speech, 1933

Ah . . those were the days.

[donheld]

103. Nevermind

:crazy:

[Systematic Chaos]

2. And just in time we get this great post too!

'Nuff said. :eyes:

And yes, I voted that what is coming would make 1929-1938 look like a picnic in the park.

[PerfectSage]

3. I'd say worse than the 70's not as bad as the 30's

[spoony]

4. In Michigan, we're already there. n/t

[OhioChick]

23. Same Here in OH. n/t

[etherealtruth]

29. I'll second that ...

... but, not happily. Things are VERY bad here.

[porphyrian]

5. I have no idea, but it's already pretty bad...

...and the corporate media would have us believe the economy has been booming since 2000. I think the answer is in what happens in the next two years.

[Selatius]

6. Yes and no.

Yes if we hit Iran. Otherwise, it will be another 1979-1983 era again.

[pbca]

7. I don't think depression is even the word for it

I think the US will see something like a great depression, but lasting much longer and will never again (at least not for a very, very long time) return to it's current economic status

[meldroc]

8. The poll results are frightening!

I'm seeing a large majority for "makes the Great Depression look like a cakewalk." Do you know how bad it got during the Great Depression? 25+% unemployment, bank crashes, a stock market down to 1/3 of the 1929 highs, millions of people losing their homes and living in shantytowns, etc. Every town had countless folks on the streets selling apples for a nickel each, because there was nothing else available for them to do for a living! The Great Depression was absolutely horrible, and I'd shudder to think of how it can get worse than that!

[tbyg52]

12. And how many people right now

Are over their heads in debt, including mortgages that are blowing up in their faces, and how high is our national debt *really*?

Edited for my specialty, stupid typo. ;)

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

15. Try 33% unemployment

men (mostly) walking or riding the rails, being chased out of towns, begging for meals. The local doctor being paid with chickens. But that same doctor also made house calls for free, if the need was there, because he took his oath seriously. And other folks, well, they stuck together, helped each other out as they could. I know this because I just helped my 88 year old mother write her memiors of the Depression.

I think this time will be worse because so much of our family structure has broken down. Mom's relatives knew if there was a medical problem, Doc, their uncle/cousin/brother would take care of them. And lots more folks lived on farms, or grew gardens with open pollinated seed, and canned food. Grandma sewed her kid's clothes (and mine, for that matter) and saved her grease to make soap.

I'm lucky in that I learned many of those skills, and live in an area where community is strong. Hubby just planted peas, and is planning the rest of the garden-he did mechanical work in trade for plants from the local organic/open pollinated greenhouse down the road.

But how many folks know these skills and have a network of neighbors?

[BluePatriot]

61. *nods*

While the crash may not be AS bad the decentralization of our families and the lack of simple coping skills for many people will make it much more of a struggle to cope with.

[roamer65]

69. The U6 unemployment rate is 8.3% for Jan 2007...

Three more points and we'll be at 1981-82 recession levels. U6 is the measurement that the Europeans use and that we used back in 1981-82.

[nadinbrzezinski]

40. And the indicators tell me

that indeed we are moving into something that will make the Great Depresion a walk in the park

And yes I am fully aware of what that was like

[melody]

44. can you specifically outline what those "indicators" are?

I mean, if you're painting such a dire picture, you must have specific reasons for thinking so.

[Firepit 462]

64. maybe NM is the anomaly,

But christ, here in NM things are fantastic. Our housing market is still very strong, commercial construction is strong, and the over priced gas is pumping huge tax money into the state/city government, and since Bill wants to be president he is pumping it right back into the economy. Plus, we have finally been noticed as a haven for large industries, other than Intel.

I'm in construction, a project manager for a general contractor. We do no residential in any way shape or form, all commercial. The single greatest problem we have as well as 95% of our subs are finding people to fill positions, nearly ALL positions. I've been with my company for 11 years, I started at the bottom, now I'm on top. I've seen the thick and thin times, and NM right now is some of the best times I've ever seen.

If somebody wants to fail, and be miserable that is certainly an option. But NM is VERY VERY fertile ground to more than just "make" it.

If you can get past the fact that a lot of people treat their property and unfortunatley the state in general as a personal land fill, it really is a pretty place, and profitable to live in.

[BlooInBloo]

10. End days! EEEENNNNDDDD DDDDAAAAAYYYYYSSSS!!!!

Maybe there should be a melodrama forum.

[melody]

36. lol - no kidding

Every time one of these "the end is near" threads start, I think of that guy on Art Bell who used to predict the end of the world every fifteen minutes. Some people tell themselves everything is falling apart so that they can okay their own inertia. Others want to see the US destroyed completely as a political entity, so they're cheering on the bad news.

It's going to be painful, definitely, but nothing close to the horrors of the Great Depression. My grandparents went through that. We have more awareness and survival information/mechanisms now than they had then.

[pampango]

66. "The end is near" most horrendous prediction competition has

officially begun. If you don't get in an early post here, you better have some truly disastrous prediction to get noticed.

One thing I do believe is that the days of American economic dominance of the world are coming to an end, gradually but inexorably. I hope, and believe, that will be because the rest of the world will get richer, not that we will get poorer.

[melody]

75. good post

Exactly -- I think that's what the Clinton years can teach us. Interdependence and cooperation are far more
productive than the truculent crap we've seen from these bastards.

The average American (given the fact we who've prepared all reach out to friends and family) will not notice
a significant difference in their lives. The mega-wealthy, well, that's another matter. lol But they're a
tiny portion of the population.

[Leopolds Ghost]

94. The rest of the world CAN'T get richer without depressing US buying power. Steel, oil, etc.

Are finite resources. Numerous movies and studies of globalization and neo-colonialism have pointed out that our military and economic machine is really about extracting 25% of those resources from "developing" countries that are intentionally kept in chaos in order to depress the cost of goods. (Just like Iraq, but also Congo, Tanzania, etc. see DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE, a first-hand look at what's happening to the fish industry in Africa.)

Currently the countries where people are doing "SO MUCH BETTER" because of globalization are being run as SECOND-WORLD nations -- Dickensian economies with large, static and oppressed working classes ruled over by a small but vocal "middle" class that is super-wealthy by local standards.

These "middle" classes support "liberalism" by which they mean neoliberalism -- Reaganite/ Thatcherism. Which is what "liberalism" used to mean in the traditional sense, especially in places like Eastern Europe.

If (and it's a big if) these countries make the transition to emerging first-world power like Japan, they will develop industrial policies and trade unions and begin to go into economic overdrive. THe result will be a worldwide resource crunch AND the end of the WTO, which is a US effort to maintain the neocolonial system of 2nd World "producer nations" making goods for the "mother country" just like Britain did with the American Colonies, just like Athens did with her Empire.

It is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for demand in, say, auto ownership to increase in China without destroying the US Auto culture that the people on this blog have come to rely on as some sort of birthright. There is not enough steel, never mind oil.

[pampango]

100. You are right that if the rest of the world gets richer, the price

of finite resources like oil, coal, gas, iron, etc. will increase, since you will have more demand for a finite supply. To that extent our buying power as a nation will decline. I would hope that with needed changes in our society, more equal distribution of income, better social services and education, mass transit and a host of others (become more like Western Europe), most of us would not notice a decline in our standard of living.

The alternative to me seems to be to hope, or actively plan, for a permanently poor majority of the world's population, in order to maintain our buying power and standard of living by relieving pressure on the prices of those finite resources. This would also reduce to pressure on the earth's environment, since poor peasants are not as ecologically unfriendly as are smoke-belching factories and cars. Of course, this alternative is not very progressive in that it condones the presence of a permanently poor class of people that is required for us to maintain a middle class life style.

In summary, I agree that a goal of a richer Third World has to acknowledge that there will be increased pressure on our buying power and standard of living. We can respond by saying "We will not give up even 1% of our standard of living to promote prosperity in the Third World. Things are so screwed up in our own country that we have to preserve what we have left and can't worry about anyone else." The alternative is to promote Third World prosperity, accept the pressure that puts on our standard of living, and seek to make our country a more egalitarian and caring place from within.

[BlooInBloo]

118. False. The size of the whole enchilada can increase. Economics is NOT zero-sum.

[melody]

11. 70s recession

A lot of the people posting are too young to remember the rough patches we went through during the Nixon/Ford/Carter/Reagan years. We had very bad stuff happen then, as now. We're wealthy enough as a nation to ride out the worst of it. The lucky thing is the poor and middle class know how to survive with next to nothing. I'm not sure the rich folk do. :)

It's rather sad to see the EU/Canada/other folk celebrating what they see as the US' downfall when the people who are going to be suffering are the regular people. Halliburton is moving to Dubai. Bush has his south American hideaway.

[pbca]

14. I don't think that

The EU/Canada etc., are celebrating - after all, the US decline will hit us too (at least to an extent) but, from where I'm sitting I see alot of problems and I don't see anyone in office (or even running for office) who is proposing any serious solutions to the problems, or is even willing to acknowledge them fully. I think it's worse than you think.

[melody]

22. It's never worse than I think, believe me lol

I'm a devout pessimist, but I don't see anything that will kill us, merely wound us ...
but I think that was the whole point of PNAC in the first place.

[pbca]

24. How about

a collapse of the dollar from excessive debt, follwed by high interest rates, skyrocketing inflation, the flooding of most coastal cities and a health care system, education system, environment and social welfare system that are in rough shape to begin with - oh and then the end of oil (at least oil under 10 Euro a gallon). That's what I see coming down the road for the US, and I honestly don't think that anyone will fix it.

[melody]

27. We see what we wish to see n/t

[pbca]

30. If you say so..it's not what I wish to see

but if that statement applies to you, ok.

[melody]

33. It applies to everyone, me included

Everything is subjective.

I have to say there does seem to be a certain edge of voracious zeal in you at the potential of our downfall, but I fear we're going to do better than you suspect.

Time will tell.

[rman]

99. As in any depression, the rich do not end up with nothing - in fact

a depression hardly touches them.
Instrumental in the 70's depression was the fact that US oil production had peaked - this time global oil production has peaked.

[sendero]

13. It won't be the same as the GD..

...... but it will be comparable in pain level. Yes, it is coming.

[southerncrone]

16. Great Depression a Cakewalk

Never b/4 have we had so many citizens in debt so deeply, not to mention our govt. No gold standard to fall back on. And little to no mfg. base. Our "service economy" won't have anyone to service.

Pay off debt; do not increase anymore debt.
Learn to live frugally; you'll be ahead of the game.

At the risk of sounding like Chicken Little: Plan for the worst now!:scared:

[slackmaster]

17. The only people who will be screwed by the housing market are speculators

People like flippers who counted on turning large prophets.

The correction of the price of housing will help many people who cannot presently afford to buy a home to live in.

[ProgressiveFool]

18. Large prophets?

Aren't they usually skinny and bearded?

j/k sorry, couldn't resist ;)

[slackmaster]

70. Sorry, it's the painkillers I'm taking

Usually I have near-perfect spelling.

[meldroc]

21. Lots of others will be screwed.

For example, new homeowners who were swindled by their lenders into a bad loan such as an ARM loan. When the housing market tanks and interest rates rise, they may find themselves falling behind on their mortgage payments, and at the same time, upside-down on the loan (that is, they own more money than they'll get by selling.) Yep. Pretty much screwed. There will be a foreclosure and once the home's auctioned off, the lender will inform them that they still own a gazillion dollars, we're suing you!

[diamidue]

41. How about those who will lose their jobs?

I'd say some of these people are "screwed" too.

As I posted elsewhere, they are predicting that some 900,000 jobs will be lost this year in the real estate, banking and construction/housing-related fields. Granted, a percentage of them brought it on themselves, but a lot more will also suffer.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/many-layoffs-coming-housing-economists/story.aspx?guid={102B585B-9CC4-49B5-954B-5706815027D7}&dist=TNMostMailed

[slackmaster]

72. Yes, it's a cycle I'm painfully familiar with

Between my then-wife and I we lost four jobs in the Savings and Loan/real estate debacle of the early '90s.

Young people trying to start families and careers get screwed. New homeowners get screwed. People who have been working loyally for a bank for 30 years get screwed.

[ScreamingMeemie]

19. Deep Breath.......and out.... There. never. was. a. bubble.

[leeroysphitz]

39. Could you elaborate?

Not looking for an argument, just your thoughts. :)

[blues90]

20. It's already as bad as the 80's right now

I can't imagine how people will get through another great depression . We don't have the social structure we had then and we don't have the land or the open spaces to grow squat .

All I can say is it was an entirely different america back then and nothing like it is now .

Look at how over populated this country is now . People will be shooting eachother to save themselves .

I do feel it's coming , there is no one trying to stop this now , this country is selling itself off bit by bit and we make nothing here so there won't be a WWII Rosy the riviter .

[melody]

25. Well, let's all just kill ourselves right now

Why even try? :sarcasm:

It's not as bad as the 80s now, mainly because of the internet, imho. While there aren't
infrastructures as there were then, there are good things that exist now (the internet, for one)
that didn't exist then ... a source of information sharing, etc.

[NMDemDist2]

26. during the Depression we still had a manufactoring base to build

our way out, today we don't

we'll be a 3rd world country in a generation (in some areas we already are)

[melody]

34. We have more potential than many countries

With proper, Democratic leadership, we'll recover.

Sorry, but we will. lol

[Labors of Hercules]

46. Oh, I SO like you!

:loveya:

[raccoon]

60. That I believe, depression or no depression.

"we'll be a 3rd world country in a generation (in some areas we already are)"

[ThomWV]

28. Picture This

Remember the crash of Japan in the 80's? It was caused by their inflated real estate market to a great extent. Now look at us. The big differences are these; the Japanese had savings and the Japanese had a manufacturing base to their economy. They recovered, we won't.

[Karenina]

31. Our global economic system

is totally fucked, has to much momentum to tweak and, sorry to say, NEEDS TO CRASH UNDER ITS OWN WEIGHT. Game Over. Start again.

[Labors of Hercules]

48. Fall the mighty oaks of American Finance! Destroy the vapid waste of Wall Street!

Rise, Little man, RISE!!! MWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! :evilgrin:

[butterfly77]

32. I believe that it is happening but,.,,

some don't feel it yet, so they think that everything is wonderful. I hear more and more people complaining on the radio and tv and more places shutting down and letting people go.

[WI_DEM]

35. A recession, not a depression.

[ends_dont_justify]

38. People are missing an important fact: it isn't just about our ability to willfully recover

We have people in power who do not wish to recover, or do very poor jobs at it. Look at the difference between the funding for rebuilding hurricane katrina and the war with iraq/soon to be war with iran? And look at who is actually working with what money? During the time of the great depression we at the very least had a congress who was concerned with our well being, after hurricane katrina it made me feel reminiscient of the moment a storefront's wooden platform fell over, showing nothing but dust and tumbleweeds. Our country has been ransacked, the willingness to pay for its rebuilding into economic greatness is also lacking this time.

The only thing worse than a great depression is a depression with * in charge

[melody]

43. what you're missing is the neocon/Scoop Jackson crowd are in big trouble

They are surrounded on all sides. Absolutely, they're dangerous threatened, but there are enough people in government who genuinely give a damn about our country (as opposed to the neocon/Jackson pack who've been trying for forty years to destroy it) that we will survive. It's in the best interest of everyone, that we survive. How much US-based control we'll have of our own lives, is another matter.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

45. This will make the Great Depression forgotten

And will probably eclipse the Dark Ages as well.

[DerBeppo]

67. oh, man. too funny. -nt-

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

71. Too funny as in you don't think it could

happen?

Or, as in, right on, bro!?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

49. Short Answer? Nope. Long Answer?

Nope.

Course, you didn't exactly give a timeframe, so I guess maybe 200 years from now. Who knows?

As far as any time in the relatively near future? Of course not. For some to make a claim we are headed to worse than the great depression shows an immense lack of understanding on their part as to our current state and how bad the great depression actually was; in my opinion. Though I should be used to it by some here by now, the level of alarmism some still put forth still amazes me a bit.

[Warren Stupidity]

50. 200 years?

So your view is that major long wave downturns are 200 years apart? Hmmm... I've never heard that number or anything close to it used before. The usual estimates are 60-80 years. However we have a bit of a different situation facing us- namely peak oil and its evil twin catastrophic climate change, which combined with the overdue global bust point to some rather dark times ahead.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

51. For The Record, The 200 Years Was Just A Thrown Out Number With No Intended Significance.

It was just thrown out there as an example of how open ended the question was, since there was no real time frame given. That leaves the door open for those to keep saying it's coming, yet 2 years later say "I didn't say within two years, but it's still coming". I was just kinda calling attention to that hole. But please don't mistake the 200 years reference as an actual prediction of mine. It was just quite simply the first number I typed LOL

[depakid]

56. So your solution to the lack of cheap energy?

Alongside massive debt, negative household saving and the degradation of manufacturing and sustainable family agriculture? What I hear sounds simply like irrational denial- like things will keep going on as they always have- economic and natural laws be damned.

[IChing]

53. Look a Cheney's investments

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x268408

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x268395

[melody]

77. He's broadening his portfolio

That's all it is ... $25 million is chump change to this chump. If it amounted to 500 million,
then maybe we're talking serious problems.

[depakid]

55. Without cheap energy and with the depletion of natural capital

Our kids are going to have it rough. I suspect that many of them won't be inclined to be so sympathetic to the elderly down the line... they'll blame them for the unprecedented situation they find their own selves in...

[Odin2005]

58. Worse then the 70's, not as bad as the 30's

[wildbilln864]

59. During the great depression...

as I understand it people were more capable of doing many things for themselves like growing their own food and making their own clothing. And walking to the job, etc. There was no walmart then. There weren't grocery stores on the level we have today. I'm sure it was bad but it will be much much worse when people have to fend for themselves. Just MHO! :shrug:

[Leopolds Ghost]

95. People are capable of walking to the job today... they just don't realize it. n/t

[raccoon]

62. If there is a depression, it will be much worse than in the 30's,

because people's expectations have been raised. People are used to, and expect to have, a lot more "stuff" now than they did in the '30's. There would be a lot of really p.o. people.

I believe it will be more like a "slow-motion depression" (Ted Kennedy's phrase). Such as we've had over the last few decades. :-(

[gravity]

65. Nope

There might be a recession, but nothing close to a economic collapse.

Our energy situation isn't too bad, and there is no way that the Persian Gulf is going to block oil shipments especially if gas is $7 a gallon. If we reached peak oil, the supply will decline slowly. While gas prices may spike, it will encourage investments in alternative energy sources, so it could be good in the long run.

The housing bubble is not really going to crash either, but more likely slowly decline in value since people people have to live in houses.

I still some concerns like the growing inequality, debt, and trade deficit in American, but we are still far away from a full blown depression. I just hope the Democrats win in 2008 so we have effective leadership in managing these problems.

[melody]

80. Oh, now there you go being reasonable

Prepare to be attacked. LOL

[Tsiyu]

107. You sure seem eager to see an "attack"

Are you aware of what $7 a gallon gas prices will do to the poor, the working class and to small businesses?

Who is going to grow your food? Small farmers and small businesses will have to drop out of the market, because they operate on such small profit margins as it is. I guess Monsanto Everything will taste good to you, but don't expect them to provide you with cheap eats.

You keep saying poor people will be fine. I think you don't understand poverty. A spike in gas prices means they can't afford food, medicine, if they want to get to work and pay the rent and the utilities.

Affluent people will be fine. The poor and working class are going to suffer. We are a consumer-driven economy and there aren't a whole lot of consumers left at the bottom, not with health care costs and gas prices eating away at their meager budgets.

I hope the Magic Economy Fairy comes and fixes it all. :silly:

[melody]

113. Are you reading ANY of my posts?

>I think you don't understand poverty.

I think I understand it better than you do. Parts of my family came originally from Appalachia.
However, they survived. When a tornado destroyed their house, they rebuilt it. Believe me, the
US has seen worse times.

Now try going back and actually reading my posts beyond a couple of excerpts.

[Tsiyu]

115. I've read them all and I must say

I like the red ones best.

They taste like strawmen burning.

[Xenotime]

73. Yes. Now people can't get loans to get houses..

I predict the US will lose to stronger markets like Asia and Europe.

[gravity]

87. Why doesn't anyone put their money where their mouth is

If the economy is going to crash, there are some great profit opportunities.

With scarce energy, invest in oil, and watch prices rise.

If the stock market is going to crash, short it and make huge profits.

If there is inflation, just invest in gold or the euro.

My point is that if you can predict whats going to happen in the economy you will be rich. People have been trying to do this for years and just about everyone fails to beat the market in the long run. The truth is that we really don't know what the hell is going to happen in the future.

[newportdadde]

109. Some of us have, I'm in vested in oil(have been since 6/04)

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

90. The Great Depression was a worldwide event

If we go into a depression at home, I wonder what will happen if countries like China and India suddenly go into an economic stall of their own when out-of-work Americans can no longer buy as many of their products and western investors pull back their investments. It could involve civil unrest within many countries, and war outside, a world wide conflict between various powers to acquire the world's remaining resources. It could be worse than just an economic depression. It could result in another world war, only this time with more than two sets of allies and hundreds of millions of deaths.

[mmonk]

92. Guaranteed bad conditions if we engage in an unwarranted

attack on Iran. We should sue the administration and congress for any losses should that happen.

[newportdadde]

108. I'm seeing it more as a slow generational bleed and a general lowering of living standards.

Certainly there are a lot of factors that in combination could result in a large recession/depression scenario.

1) Oil a finite resource that isn't going to be replaced by ethanol(joke) or any other alternative source anytime soon.

2) Insane health care costs.

3) Fed pumping money out like candy and people spending it like candy.

4) Potential large scale terrorist attack.

5) Massive Plague or sickness.. of course this could actually turn around and benefit the survivors as in the Black Death by greatly tightening the labor pool.


Its also true that many Americans have too much debt, however the consumer having a lot of debt is what the government counts on! And shame on us idiot Americans for falling for it! You see inflation caused by low interest loans, home equity etc.. .not a problem, inflation caused by wages is a problem. You watch they will lower interest rates this year, the one thing they absolutely shouldn't do but they will.

So the real question is just how much money can the consumer borrow and the Fed print before the trough dries up because when that happens thats when its over.

So what I see and I'm talking generational here is that your good paying white collar jobs.. and yes there still are a lot out there will slowly fade. In order to maintain a standard of living marketed via TV consumers will continue to pile on debt backed by a paper dollar(already happening).

Health care will continue to skyrocket. Baby boomers break the system(because the money was stolen into the general fund, not their fault) age limit for SS is raised, FICA taxes go up, medicare etc go up for remaining tax payers. All of this puts pressure on remaining wage earners.

So what I see most Americans become are quasi indentured servants with some 'stuff' but a lot of debt. Very smart/lucky/fiscally conservative Americans will still be successful but there will be less of them. I see this as sort of a decline of empire.

The big question is have TPTB finally figured out how to give the underclass just the right mixture of debt/stuff/food to keep them complacent. Every time in history the ruling class has always gone one step to far which resulted in a reset.

[Warren DeMontague]

117. Geeezus. Sometimes I think I've wandered onto Rapture Ready, by mistake.

Every five fucking minutes, the world is ending.

[AZBlue]

120. Why don't we focus on solutions instead of wringing our hands and claiming the sky's falling?

If we focus on doom, it will be here shortly. If we focus on a way out, we'll get one. Your choice.