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War with Iran is Inevitable

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Pryderi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-14-07 11:19 PM
Original message
War with Iran is Inevitable
Edited on Wed Mar-14-07 11:22 PM by Pryderi
It's not the threat of nuclear weapons development. We will be going to war for the undermining of our currency. After our invasion of Iraq, who had started trading oil in euros in 2000 trading of oil is going to be in dollars. There's a lot of under-reported information about this situation.

Also, Putin is trading Russian oil in rubles rather than dollars or euros.

In my opinion, Iran is going to have to go back to trading oil in dollars if they don't want to be invaded.

Can I invest my 401k into euros? Although the Chinese yuan looks good...

http://baltimorechronicle.com/2007/031007RUIJTER.shtml

The world’s oil and gas is traded in U.S. dollars. Since 1971, the U.S. has enjoyed the advantage of being the petrodollar supplier to the world. Supplying dollars to foreign countries means the U.S. can print money and purchase goods, services and investments with it. Since the foreigners need these dollars to buy oil, and keep them also in use in the international trade outside the U.S., the U.S. has never had to deliver anything in return. Merely supplying money means free shopping. This is how U.S. foreign debt grew to $3,200,000,000,000 today. If at some point the world starts selling the trillions of dollars the other nations currently hold, the exchange markets would be flooded with dollars, and, as a result, the value of the dollar would drop to next to nothing. It would trigger a financial crisis, but if the dollar becomes worth next to nothing, it means the foreign debt would vanish. So it is very advantageous to deliver currencies that are permanently needed and wanted abroad. And that is the case as long as the world needs dollars to buy oil and gas.

But with today’s skyrocketing debt, the dollar has become vulnerable. When Saddam Hussein switched to the euro on November 6, 2000<11, 12>, the exchange markets were temporarily flooded with dollars. With Iran considering a similar switch since 1999 and maybe more OPEC countries to follow<13>, speculations and decreasing trust had set in motion a long descent of the dollar<13a>, which could lead to its collapse.<14> By the end of 2002 the dollar rate had fallen 18 percent.<15> This probably explains why the US could not wait and, on March 20, 2003, it even overruled the UN Security Council and invaded Iraq. The Iraqi oil trade has been switched back to dollars since June 6, 2003.<16> In Spring of 2003, Iran switched to the euro, and during the two years that followed the dollar exchange rate lost another 12 percent.

The U.S. free shopping advantage only works for as long as foreign countries need additional dollars. Each time oil prices rise on the U.S.-controlled International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) of London and New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), more dollars are needed in the world.<17> As 85 percent of the oil trade takes place outside the U.S., for each extra dollar needed inside the U.S., seven dollars are needed outside, which results in free shopping.

The only remaining way to obtain enough new credit is to increase the world’s demand for dollars by making the oil prices rise on IPE and NYMEX. And that is what has been happening since mid-2004.
To increase the foreign dollar demand still further, the U.S. Federal Reserve sells Treasury Bonds to foreigners, which reduces the amount of dollars abroad. This increases foreign demand for dollars and raises the exchange rate. To stop the exchange rate from rising continually, new dollars have to be “delivered” to the foreigners, resulting again in free shopping. If the U.S. wants to lower the dollar rate, it can just import more. In fact, as long as world demand for dollars keeps growing, the U.S. can decide itself about the rate of their currency and enjoy free shopping. For the year 2004, the latter represented an advantage of $2,167 per U.S. inhabitant. Recently, foreigners have been less willing to fuel the U.S. fairy credit carrousel. The U.S. tries to seduce them with higher interest, but foreign demand for bonds remains insufficient. The only remaining way to obtain enough new credit is to increase the world’s demand for dollars by making the oil prices rise on IPE and NYMEX. And that is what has been happening since mid-2004.



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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-14-07 11:39 PM
Response to Original message
1. This war isn't inevitable. (nt)
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MLFerrell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
9. As long as Congress keeps bowing to AIPAC, yes it is inevitable...
Case in point, the removal of language requiring Congressional approval for an attack on Iran.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/3/12/19432/6285
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Singular73 Donating Member (999 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Mar-14-07 11:49 PM
Response to Original message
2. Pegging oil to the dollar is all thats keeping our currency afloat.
If Iran, and a few others, pegged against the Euro, we'd see inflation the likes of which we have not seen since the late 70s.

Like a 15-20% unemployment rate, and rapid recession of the US economy?

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Skink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 12:17 AM
Response to Original message
3. When Chavez goes to the Euro things could get rough.
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
4. Bush plans to go to war with Iran Hersh has said we have
troops in iran already doing logistics

its just a matter of time

God help us all when it happens
:nuke:
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blues90 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 06:59 PM
Response to Reply #4
14.  I feel the same way
They have been marking targets , there are still the carrier groups in the gulf , all options are still on the table , the BCF is in trouble and this is the only way of holding their power .

Sy Hersh said it all in his artical .

I hope I'm wrong but I can only go by what I read and hear and this does not look so good to me . Beside knowing cheney at his AIPAC speech and bush being completely insane . Also the dems are just going along and allowing bush to attack Iran without the approval of congress and now they have the funding they can lie about when they say where the money went .
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majorjohn Donating Member (310 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 12:20 AM
Response to Original message
5. It's not gonna happen n/t
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MLFerrell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 05:38 PM
Response to Reply #5
10. And you know this how?
See post #9 above.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 04:33 AM
Response to Original message
6. Foreign equity investments look good partly due to the decline of the US dollar
I think this trend will continue. Foreign stocks are not tied to the US dollar.

But this might not be a good time to jump into any stocks because lots of folks believe we're heading into a recession. The economy is booming. Stay the course. Mission accomplished.
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 04:34 AM
Response to Original message
7. it's not inevitable is Congress prohibits Bush from attacking Iran . . .
without their prior consultation and approval . . .

of course, our "new" Congress has yet to demonstrate any balls whatsoever on this issue OR on ending the illegal Iraq war . . .

hope they decide to grow some . . . and soon . . .
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 07:22 AM
Response to Original message
8. I know all about petro dollars and imperial dreams
but we can still stop it if we can overcome the profiteers and ideologues.
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 05:51 PM
Response to Original message
11. If you attack Iran, you lose your economy. That's the bottom line.
Edited on Thu Mar-15-07 05:55 PM by Selatius
An attack on Iran would likely shut down the Hormuz Strait for a period of time. That translate into disrupted oil supplies. With the oil supply disrupted, gas prices will shoot to 4 or 5 dollars per gallon, or even higher.

At the same time, China and Russia will be pissed that the largest oil supply on mainland Asia has been disrupted. China could choose to retaliate by not purchasing more US Treasury bonds (US debt) and force the US to borrow money elsewhere to feed the war machine. Of course, if the US government is that stupid, it will cannibalize its own social programs to feed the war machine rather than cut spending on the military or raise taxes to make-up the shortfall. Worse yet, China's fast on US debt could send a ripple effect through the world currency exchange markets destabilizing the US dollar even more, which could potentially make foreign-made goods that much more expensive on US shelves.

Add the two together (disrupted oil supplies and China's refusal on purchasing more US debt), and you're looking at a very tight belt around your waist.
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Pavulon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. japan
is the largest holder of us debt.

Russia just told iran to pay up or get lost..

New sanctions from europe..Wonder if it will collapse.

Time for a new student revolution
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Selatius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-15-07 06:00 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. That's true, but China is the world's 2nd largest holder of US debt
It could cause a problem if it won't purchase more T-bonds for a period of time to finance US deficit spending.
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